2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election
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All 69 seats in the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein 35 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 1,396,747 (60.4%  3.8pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results for the single-member constituencies | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election was held on 8 May 2022 to elect the 20th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Minister-President Daniel Günther.
The CDU won in a landslide, claiming 43% of the vote with a swing of over eleven percentage points and falling one seat short of an absolute majority in the Landtag. It is their best result since Uwe Barschel's 49 % showing in the 1983 state election. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered major losses and fell to third place with 16% of votes, its worst ever result in the state, while the Greens became the second-largest party with 18%. The FDP also declined to 6% and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell below the 5% electoral threshold, losing representation in a state parliament for the first time. The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), which represents the Danish and Frisian minorities in Schleswig-Holstein, won 6%, their best result since the first post-war state election in 1947.[1]
The CDU's victory was attributed to the personal popularity of Minister-President Günther, as well as the federal government's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, for which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been criticised.[1] In the lead-up to the election, Günther was the most popular Minister-President in Germany with an approval rating of 76%,[2] and was preferred Minister-President even among opposition voters.[3]
After the election, the CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. Daniel Günther was re-elected as Minister-President on 29 June.[4]
Election date
[edit]The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. The election must be held in or before June 2022.[5]
Electoral system
[edit]The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 35 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 34 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 69 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold, and fail to win at least one constituency, are ineligible to receive seats. Parties representing the Danish minority of Southern Schleswig and the Frisians, such as the South Schleswig Voters' Association, are exempt from the threshold.[6]
Background
[edit]In the previous election held on 7 May 2017, the CDU remained the largest party with 32.0% of votes cast, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The SPD lost three points and placed second with 27.3% of votes. The Greens won 12.9% (–0.3pp), the FDP won 11.5% (+3.3pp), and the SSW won 3.3% (–1.3pp). The AfD contested its first election in Schleswig-Holstein, winning 5.9%.
The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens and SSW since 2012, but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the Greens and FDP, and Daniel Günther became Minister-President.
Parties
[edit]The table below lists parties represented in the 19th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | Leading candidate | 2017 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | Christian democracy | 32.0% | 25 / 73 | |||
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | Social democracy | Serpil Midyatli | Thomas Losse-Müller | 27.3% | 21 / 73 | |
| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | Green politics | Ann-Kathrin Tranziska Steffen Regis | Monika Heinold | 12.9% | 10 / 73 | |
| FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei | Classical liberalism | Heiner Garg | Bernd Buchholz | 11.5% | 9 / 73 | |
| AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland | Right-wing populism | Vacant | Jörg Nobis | 5.9% | 5 / 73 | |
| SSW | South Schleswig Voter Federation Südschleswigscher Wählerverband | Danish and Frisian minority interests | Flemming Meyer | Lars Harms | 3.3% | 3 / 73 | |
Opinion polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Party polling
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CDU | SPD | Grüne | FDP | AfD | Linke | SSW | FW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 state election | 8 May 2022 | – | 43.4 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 25.1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–6 May 2022 | 918 | 39 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 7 | 5.5 | 2 | 5.5 | – | 6 | 21.5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 2–5 May 2022 | 1,704 | 38 | 18 | 18 | 8 | 6 | – | 6 | – | 6 | 20 |
| INSA | 25 Apr–2 May 2022 | 1,000 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | – | 5 | 16 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Apr 2022 | 913 | 39 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | – | 6 | 20.5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Apr 2022 | 1,011 | 38 | 19 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 5 | – | 5 | 19 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–27 Apr 2022 | 1,530 | 38 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 5 | – | 5 | – | 8 | 19 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16–23 Apr 2022 | 920 | 39.5 | 21 | 16 | 7 | 4.5 | 2 | 4 | – | 6 | 18.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 13–19 Apr 2022 | 1,172 | 38 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 6 | – | 4 | – | 7 | 18 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Mar–2 Apr 2022 | 950 | 37 | 22 | 17 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 4 | – | 7 | 15 |
| Infratest dimap | 24–29 Mar 2022 | 1,158 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 8 | 6 | – | 4 | – | 8 | 16 |
| INSA | 21–28 Mar 2022 | 1,008 | 28 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–11 Mar 2022 | 1,020 | 35 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 5 | – | 4.5 | 15.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–8 Mar 2022 | 1,168 | 33 | 20 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | – | 5 | 13 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10–19 Feb 2022 | 2,000 | 30 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | – | 5 | 5 |
| INSA | 24–31 Jan 2022 | 1,003 | 25 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 19–27 Jan 2022 | 1,390 | 31 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5.5 | – | 5.5 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 13–18 Jan 2022 | 1,167 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 4 | – | 5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 1–13 Dec 2021 | 1,030 | 24 | 29 | 20 | 12.5 | 4 | 2 | 4.5 | – | 4 | 5 |
| INSA | 15–22 Nov 2021 | 1,001 | 21 | 28 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–24 Oct 2021 | 945 | 23 | 29 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | – | 3 | 6 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 22.0 | 28.0 | 18.3 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 6.0 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–26 May 2021 | 1,220 | 28 | 15 | 27 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 3 | – | 6 | 1 |
| INSA | 10–17 May 2021 | 1,000 | 25 | 21 | 27 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 21–30 Mar 2021 | – | 28 | 19 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | – | 3.5 | 1 |
| INSA | 16–23 Nov 2020 | 1,002 | 33 | 20 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | – | 3 | 9 |
| INSA | 13–20 Jan 2020 | 1,000 | 28 | 20 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | – | 4 | 2 |
| 2019 European election | 26 May 2019 | – | 26.2 | 17.1 | 29.1 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | – | 0.9 | 9.7 | 2.9 |
| INSA | 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 | 1,002 | 30 | 20 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–18 Apr 2018 | 1,002 | 34 | 22 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | – | 3 | 12 |
| 2017 federal election | 24 Sep 2017 | – | 34.0 | 23.3 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 7.3 | – | 0.6 | 1.9 | 10.7 |
| 2017 state election | 7 May 2017 | – | 32.0 | 27.3 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 4.7 |
Results
[edit] | |||||||||
| Party | Constituency | List | Total seats | +/– | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Swing | ||||
| Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) | 577,506 | 41.9 | 32 | 601,964 | 43.4 |  11.4 | 34 | 9 | |
| Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) | 260,122 | 18.9 | 3 | 254,158 | 18.3 | 5.4 | 14 | 4 | |
| Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) | 284,373 | 20.6 | 0 | 221,496 | 16.0 | 11.3 | 12 | 9 | |
| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 84,520 | 6.1 | 0 | 88,593 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | |
| South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) | 48,551 | 3.5 | 0 | 79,301 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Alternative for Germany (AfD) | 62,413 | 4.5 | 0 | 61,141 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0 | 5 | |
| The Left (DIE LINKE) | 29,739 | 2.2 | 0 | 23,054 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) | 9,684 | 0.7 | 0 | 15,400 | 1.1 | New | 0 | New | |
| Die PARTEI | 3,096 | 0.2 | 0 | 10,292 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) | – | – | – | 10,227 | 0.7 | New | 0 | New | |
| Free Voters (FW) | 13,803 | 1.0 | 0 | 8,190 | 0.6 |  0.0 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) | – | – | – | 4,753 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Volt Germany (Volt) | 1,896 | 0.1 | 0 | 4,215 | 0.3 | New | 0 | New | |
| Future (Z.) | 442 | 0.0 | 0 | 1,692 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Humanists (Die Humanisten) | 302 | 0.0 | 0 | 1,603 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New | |
| Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) | – | – | – | 1,319 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New | |
| Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR) | 368 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | 0.2 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) | 227 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | 0.6 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) | 154 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | New | |
| Independents | 1,656 | 0.1 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | ±0 | |
| Valid | 1,378,852 | 98.7 | 1,387,398 | 99.3 | |||||
| Invalid | 17,895 | 1.3 | 9,349 | 0.7 | |||||
| Total | 1,396,747 | 100.0 | 35 | 1,396,747 | 100.0 | 69 | –4 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 2,314,417 | 60.4 | 2,314,417 | 60.4 | 3.8 | ||||
| Source: State Returning Officer Archived 2023-05-14 at the Wayback Machine | |||||||||
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CDU vote -
Green vote -
SPD vote -
FDP vote -
AfD vote -
SSW vote
Voter demographics and analysis
[edit]| Sociology of the electorate | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic | CDU | Grüne | SPD | FDP | SSW | AfD | Linke | Others | |||||
| Total vote | 43% | 18% | 16% | 6.5% | 6% | 4.5% | 2% | 4% | |||||
| Sex | |||||||||||||
| Men | 42% | 16% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 4% | |||||
| Women | 44% | 20% | 16% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 4% | |||||
| Age | |||||||||||||
| 16–24 years old | 23% | 26% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 9% | |||||
| 25–34 years old | 30% | 22% | 15% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 8% | |||||
| 35–44 years old | 38% | 20% | 14% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 7% | |||||
| 45–59 years old | 45% | 19% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 4% | |||||
| 60–69 years old | 47% | 18% | 18% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | |||||
| 70 or older | 55% | 12% | 20% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | |||||
| Education | |||||||||||||
| Low | 50% | 7% | 22% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | |||||
| High | 35% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 6% | |||||
| Socio-occupational classification | |||||||||||||
| Blue-collar worker | 39% | 12% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 7% | ||||||
| White-collar worker | 40% | 21% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 8% | ||||||
| Self-employed | 47% | 19% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ||||||
| Retired | 52% | 14% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 2% | ||||||
| Agglomeration | |||||||||||||
| Rural commune | 47% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 5% | ||||||
| Small town | 46% | 16% | 17% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | ||||||
| Medium-sized town | 39% | 20% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||||||
| Large town | 33% | 27% | 19% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 7% | ||||||
| Source: Infratest dimap[7][8][9] | |||||||||||||
Government formation
[edit]The CDU fell just one seat short of a majority in the Landtag and could form a coalition with any of the other parties. After the election, Minister-President Günther stated his intention to seek a renewal of the incumbent Jamaica coalition with both the Greens and FDP.[10] On 19 May, he announced that exploratory talks had failed because neither of the smaller parties desired to continue a three-party coalition when only two parties were necessary for a majority.[11] Four days later, the CDU extended an invitation to the Greens for coalition talks, which was accepted.[12][13] As negotiations proceeded in early June, the two parties emphasised their mutual commitment to climate protection and social justice, and a rapid transition to renewable energy and climate neutrality. Agreement was also found in policy areas such as digitalisation and education, while they disagreed on security, agriculture, transport, and housing.[14][15]
On 22 June, the CDU and Greens announced that they had finalised a coalition agreement. In the new cabinet, the number of ministers was increased by one as the agriculture portfolio will be split from that of environment and energy. The health ministry was also transferred from the social affairs ministry to the justice ministry. Five ministers – economy, justice, education, interior, and agriculture – were allocated to the CDU and three to the Greens. Among them, Monika Heinold remained Deputy Minister-President and finance minister, while Tobias Goldschmidt became environment minister and Aminata Touré minister for social affairs.[16] The agreement was approved overwhelmingly by both parties' congresses on 27 June, with the Greens recording four dissenting votes and the CDU none.[17]
Daniel Günther was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 29 June, winning 47 votes out of 66 cast, including four abstentions.[4]
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Germany: CDU set to win Schleswig-Holstein state election". Deutsche Welle. 8 May 2022.
- ^ "Landtagswahl am 8. Mai: CDU in Umfrage vor SPD und Grünen". YouTube.
- ^ "NDR Umfrage in SH: CDU vor SPD und Grünen - Abstand wächst".
- ^ a b "Daniel Günther is the old and new Prime Minister of SH". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 29 June 2022.
- ^ "The 19th Landtag". Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. Archived from the original on 5 December 2020. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
- ^ "Elections". Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
- ^ "Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wen wählten Jüngere und Ältere?" (in German). Tagesschau.de. 8 May 2022. Retrieved 9 May 2022.
- ^ "Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wer wählte was?" (in German). tagesschau.de. 8 May 2022. Retrieved 9 May 2022.
- ^ "Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Wen wählten Angestellte und Arbeitende?" (in German). Tagesschau.de. 8 May 2022. Retrieved 9 May 2022.
- ^ "Günther wants to continue Jamaica". Der Spiegel (in German). 11 May 2022.
- ^ "Talks on renewal of the Jamaican government have collapsed". Die Zeit (in German). 19 May 2022.
- ^ "CDU wants to hold coalition talks with the Greens". Tagesspiegel (in German). 23 May 2022.
- ^ "CDU and Greens agree on timetable for government formation in SH". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 25 May 2022.
- ^ "Government formation in SH: coalition agreement should be in two weeks". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 8 June 2022.
- ^ "CDU und Grüne beraten weiter über gemeinsame Koalition". N-tv (in German). 15 June 2022.
- ^ "Black-Green coalition is set in Schleswig-Holstein". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 22 June 2022.
- ^ "CDU and Greens agree to coalition agreement". Der Spiegel (in German). 27 June 2022.
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