2023 Hessian state election

2023 Hessian state election

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All 133 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, including 23 overhang and leveling seats 67 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	2,812,560 (64.9%) 2.4%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Boris Rhein Robert Lambrou Nancy Faeser Party CDU AfD SPD Last election 40 seats, 27.0% 19 seats, 13.1% 29 seats, 19.8% Seats won 52 28 23 Seat change 12 9 6 Popular vote 972,876 518,763 424,587 Percentage 34.6% 18.4% 15.1% Swing 7.6% 5.3% 4.7%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Die Linke Leader Tarek Al-Wazir Stefan Naas Elisabeth Kula Jan Schalauske Party Greens FDP Left Last election 29 seats, 19.8% 11 seats, 7.5% 9 seats, 6.3% Seats won 22 8 0 Seat change 7 3 9 Popular vote 416,035 141,644 86,842 Percentage 14.8% 5.0% 3.1% Swing 5.0% 2.5% 3.2%
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats
Government before election First Rhein cabinet CDU–Green Government after election Second Rhein cabinet CDU–SPD

The 2023 Hessian state elections was held on Sunday October 8, to elect the 21st Landtag of Hesse.^[1] The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and The Greens, led by Minister-President Boris Rhein of the CDU. The 2023 Bavarian state election was held the same day.

The result was a clear victory for the CDU, which took almost 35% of the vote on a swing of 7.6 percentage points. At 18%, the Alternative for Germany lifted its vote by over five points and became the second-largest party in a Western state for the first time. The Greens conversely lost five points, falling to fourth place on 15%, just behind the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) which suffered similar losses. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) narrowly passed the 5% electoral threshold with a 5.035% vote share; meanwhile, The Left fell to 3.1% and lost all their seats.^[2]

Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority, with a strengthened position for the leading CDU. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.^[3][4]

Article 79 of the Constitution of Hesse stipulates that the state parliament is elected for five years. The new election must take place before the end of the electoral period. According to Section 1 of the Hessian state election law, the election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday. The day of the election is determined by the state government by ordinance.

Since the 20th state parliament was constituted on January 18, 2019, Sunday, January 14, 2024, is the latest possible date for the election to the 21st Hessian state parliament.

On January 17, 2023, the Rhein cabinet decided to set October 8, 2023 as the election day. It follows the tradition that voting takes place in Hesse in the three months before the end of the electoral period. The Bavarian state election took place the same day.

Parties and voter groups that have not been represented in the state parliament without interruption since the last state election need 1,000 signatures for their state list and 50 for their district election proposals.

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate on the state list and one for a candidate in their constituency. The state list of a party is elected with the state vote that is decisive for the allocation of seats in the state parliament.

Parliament seats are calculated using the Hare-Niemeyer method.

The following parties were represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse:

Local regression of polls conducted

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size					None/ Unsure	Lead
			Rhein CDU	Al-Wazir Grüne	Faeser SPD	Lambrou AfD
Infratest dimap	8 Oct 2023	–	38	23	15	–	24	15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen			50	30	–	–	20	19
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen			61	–	21	–	18	40
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Oct 2023	949	38	17	14	14	17	21
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–5 Oct 2023	1,000	44	33	–	–	23	11
			55	–	24	–	21	31
Wahlkreisprognose	30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	1,002	35	17	11	12	25	18
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	25–28 Sep 2023	1,041	44	31	–	–	25	13
			55	–	21	–	24	34
Infratest dimap	25–27 Sep 2023	1,515	35	19	14	–	32	16
Wahlkreisprognose	22–26 Sep 2023	1,000	33	18	13	11	25	15
Wahlkreisprognose	9–13 Sep 2023	1,200	31	16	16	10	27	15
			40	–	24	–	36	16
Infratest dimap	5–9 Sep 2023	1,170	33	21	17	–	29	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–7 Sep 2023	1,107	42	31	–	–	27	11
			50	–	26	–	24	24
Wahlkreisprognose	25–29 Aug 2023	1,000	30	15	21	12	22	9
			32	–	27	–	41	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	21–23 Aug 2023	1,005	44	31	–	–	25	13
			50	–	28	–	22	22
Wahlkreisprognose	18–23 Jul 2023	1,015	28	15	20	7	30	8
			31	–	28	–	41	3
Wahlkreisprognose	23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023	1,400	30	17	20	–	33	10
Wahlkreisprognose	17–22 May 2023	1,002	37	19	23	–	21	14
Wahlkreisprognose	5–14 Apr 2023	1,398	34	23	24	–	19	10
Infratest dimap	7–11 Mar 2023	1,177	32	23	17	–	28	9
Wahlkreisprognose	3–7 Mar 2023	1,003	34	23	25	–	18	9
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Feb 2023	1,521	32	20	27	–	21	5
Wahlkreisprognose	23–27 Dec 2022	1,150	32	20	25	–	23	7
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov 2022	1,100	36	15	26	–	23	10
Wahlkreisprognose	24–28 Oct 2022	1,082	37	19	24	–	20	13
Infratest dimap	12–15 Oct 2022	1,161	30	21	17	–	32	9
Wahlkreisprognose	25–29 Sep 2022	1,400	39	19	19	–	23	20
Wahlkreisprognose	25–30 Aug 2022	1,010	36	24	20	–	20	12
Wahlkreisprognose	7–12 Jul 2022	1,043	35	25	23	–	17	10
Wahlkreisprognose	10–17 Jun 2022	1,123	41	30	17	–	12	11
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Apr – 4 May 2022	1,023	30	28	23	–	19	2
Wahlkreisprognose	3–10 Mar 2022	1,400	26	28	22	–	24	2
Infratest dimap	28 Feb – 2 Mar 2022	1,169	26	23	20	–	31	3

Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the Landtag of Hesse^[5]

Party		Constituency[a]			Party list[b]				Total seats	+/-
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	+/-	Seats
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	997,870	35.6	52	972,876	34.6	7.6	0	52	12
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	490,894	17.5	0	518,763	18.4	5.3	28	28	9
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	512,349	18.3	0	424,587	15.1	4.7	23	23	6
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	397,680	14.2	3	416,035	14.8	5.0	19	22	7
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	137,318	4.9	0	141,644	5.0	2.5	8	8	3
	Free Voters (FW)	131,108	4.7	0	98,283	3.5	0.5	0	0	0
	The Left (DIE LINKE)	90,520	3.2	0	86,842	3.1	3.2	0	0	9
	Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz)	5,181	0.2	0	43,341	1.5	0.5	0	0	0
	Volt Germany (Volt)	13,729	0.5	0	27,612	1.0	New	0	0	New
	Die PARTEI	18,595	0.7	0	23,678	0.8	0.2	0	0	0
	Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis)	4,285	0.2	0	13,707	0.5	New	0	0	New
	V-Partei3	155	0.0	0	9,472	0.3	0.2	0	0	0
	Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)	1,348	0.0	0	8,618	0.3	0.1	0	0	0
	Climate List Germany (Klimaliste)	951	0.0	0	6,212	0.2	New	0	0	New
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	–			5,906	0.2	0.1	0	0	0
	Action Citizens for Justice (ABG)	324	0.0	0	4,442	0.2	New	0	0	New
	Party of Humanists (PdH)	878	0.0	0	4,262	0.2	0.1	0	0	0
	German Communist Party (DKP)	776	0.0	0	2,229	0.1	New	0	0	New
	Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany (APPD)	91	0.0	0	1,929	0.1	New	0	0	New
	Party for Biomedical Rejuvenation Research (Verjüngungsforschung)	–			1,506	0.1	0.0	0	0	0
	The New Centre (DIE NEUE MITTE)	–			1,369	0.0	New	0	0	New
	Non-party Resident Representatives (NEV)	880	0.0	0	–			0	0	0
	Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)	756	0.0	0	–			0	0	New
	Practitioner Party (PP)	421	0.0	0	–			0	0	New
	Bürgerliste Weiterdenken (WDMR)	187	0.0	0	–			0	0	New
	Solidarity, Justice, Change (SGV)	162	0.0	0	–			0	0	New
	Solibew	124	0.0	0	–			0	0	New
	MERA25	99	0.0	0	–			0	0	New
Total		2,806,681	100.00	55	2,813,313	100.00		78	133	4
Invalid		51,632	1.8		45,000	1.6
Turnout		2,858,313	66.0		2,858,313	66.0	1.3
Registered voters		4,332,235			4,332,235

• 
  CDU vote
• 
  AfD vote
• 
  SPD vote
• 
  Green vote
• 
  FDP vote
• 
  FW vote
• 
  Linke vote

Immediately after the elections, Prime Minister Boris Rhein announced that he wanted to hold exploratory talks with his previous coalition partner, the Greens, as well as with the SPD and FDP.^[6] According to Rhein, five rounds of talks took place between the CDU and the Greens as well as with the SPD in the following weeks.

On November 10, 2023, Rhein announced his intention to end the previous coalition between the CDU and the Greens and instead govern with the SPD. The CDU state executive committee and the parliamentary group in the state parliament had previously unanimously accepted the decision for negotiations. Rhein stated that the decision had "not been taken lightly" and had been "seriously considered".^[7]

The committees of the SPD Hesse also voted unanimously to start coalition negotiations with the CDU. Previously, Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser, the SPD's top candidate in the state elections in Hesse, had rejected a move to Wiesbaden.^[8]

The new Hessian state parliament was constituted on 18 January 2024.^[7]