2024 Cook by-election
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Division of Cook (New South Wales) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Cook was held on 13 April 2024, following the resignation of sitting Liberal member and former Prime Minister Scott Morrison.[1]
Morrison's resignation was first announced on 23 January 2024, and came into effect on 28 February 2024.[2]
Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy succeeded Morrison as the new member for Cook. It was the fourth federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament.
Background
[edit]Seat details
[edit]Cook encompasses much of Sutherland Shire in Sydney's southern suburbs. It was first contested at the 1969 Australian federal election and named after naval captain and explorer James Cook. It has been held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms, the lone exception being 1972-1975 when the Australian Labor Party held the seat. The Liberal margin swelled in the Coalition's 1996 victory. Since then, Cook has been one of the safest Liberal seats in metropolitan Australia.
Demographics
[edit]During the 2021 Australian census, Cook's median age of 42 exceeded both the national (38) and state (39) medians. In the realm of economic indicators, the median personal weekly income in Cook amounted to $991, surpassing the corresponding figures for the state and nation, which stood at $813 and $805 respectively. Additionally, the demographic composition of the electorate saw over 60 percent identifying their ancestry as English or Australian.[3]
Electoral history
[edit]| Election | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 62.28% | 58.94% | 64.00% | 63.82% | 56.57% | 62.66% | 66.35% | 65.39% | 69.02% | 62.44% | |
| Labor | 37.72% | 41.06% | 36.00% | 36.18% | 43.43% | 37.34% | 33.65% | 34.61% | 30.98% | 37.56% | |
| Government | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | |
2022 election results
[edit]At the time of the 2022 election, Morrison sat on a majority of 19 percent, making Cook the safest Coalition seat in metropolitan Australia. He retained the seat with a 62.44% two-party-preferred vote and a 6.58% swing against him. He lost 8.17% of his primary vote from 2019. On the other hand, all other parties who contested the election (Labor, Greens, One Nation and United Australian Party) had increases in their primary votes, being 1.89%, 3.09%, 1.61% and 3.27% respectively. Only Labor had a primary vote of more than 10% (24.99%), while the Green's primary vote was just below 10% (9.90%).
Candidates
[edit]Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Vinay Kolhatkar | Author and podcaster.[4] | |
| Animal Justice | Natasha Brown | [5] | |
| Independent | Roger Woodward | Accountant and CFA volunteer.[6] | |
| Greens | Martin Moore | Sutherland Shire Ward A candidate at the 2021 local elections.[7] | |
| Liberal | Simon Kennedy | Candidate for Bennelong at the 2022 federal election.[8] | |
| Sustainable Australia | Simone Francis Gagatam | [9] | |
Labor
[edit]On 22 March the Labor Party announced they would not run a candidate in the by-election. This is the first time since the 2015 North Sydney by-election that they have not contested a federal by-election.[10]
Liberal
[edit]On 4 March former Bennelong candidate Simon Kennedy won Liberal Party preselection. Other candidates were Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, Veteran Family Advocate Commissioner Gwen Cherne (endorsed by former prime minister John Howard) and former United Australia Party candidate Benjamin Britton.[11]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Simon Kennedy | 158 | 53.37 | +53.37 | |
| Liberal | Carmelo Pesce | 90 | 30.40 | +30.40 | |
| Liberal | Gwen Cherne | 35 | 11.82 | +11.82 | |
| Liberal | Benjamin Britton | 13 | 4.39 | +4.39 | |
| Total formal votes | 296 | 100.0 | |||
Results
[edit]On 16 April 2024 the Australian Electoral Commission declared Simon Kennedy officially elected as the new member for Cook.[12]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Simon Kennedy | 53,799 | 62.67 | +7.14 | |
| Greens | Martin Moore | 14,120 | 16.45 | +6.55 | |
| Animal Justice | Natasha Brown | 5,841 | 6.80 | +6.80 | |
| Libertarian | Vinay Kolhatkar | 5,117 | 5.96 | +5.96 | |
| Independent | Roger Woodward | 4,920 | 5.73 | +5.73 | |
| Sustainable Australia | Simone Gagatam | 2,054 | 2.39 | +2.39 | |
| Total formal votes | 85,851 | 93.24 | −2.36 | ||
| Informal votes | 6,225 | 6.76 | +2.36 | ||
| Turnout | 92,076 | 82.28 | −10.99 | ||
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Liberal | Simon Kennedy | 61,169 | 71.25 | +8.81 | |
| Greens | Martin Moore | 24,682 | 28.75 | +28.75 | |
| Liberal hold | |||||
Opinion polling
[edit]| Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2CP vote | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | GRN | LBT | AJP | SAP | IND | Unsure | LIB | GRN | ||||
| 28 March 2024 | uComms[a] | 914 | ± 3.6% | 45.4% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 24.4% | 65% | 35% |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Sponsored by the Australia Institute
References
[edit]- ^ Sakaal, Paul; Massola, James; Thompson, Angus (23 January 2024). "Scott Morrison to resign from politics". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024.
- ^ Coorey, Phillip (23 January 2024). "Scott Morrison calls time on politics, sets up another byelection". Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024.
- ^ Australian Bureau of Statistics (28 June 2022). "Cook". 2021 Census QuickStats. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
- ^ "Cook By-Election". libertarians.org.au. Docklands Victoria. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
- ^ Trembath, Murray (3 April 2024). "Cook byelection candidate Natasha Brown seeks to give animals 'political voice'". theleader.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
- ^ Trembath, Murray (22 March 2024). "Labor 'no show' as six candidates line up for Cook byelection". theleader.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
- ^ Rix, Ethan (13 April 2024). "Cook by-election candidate Simon Kennedy says locals are 'comfortable' living near nuclear reactors". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
The Australian Greens have put up Martin Moore, who has a Fine Arts Degree with a Masters in Social Ecology and ran for the local seat of Miranda at the 2023 NSW election.
- ^ Karp, Paul; Remeikis, Amy (4 March 2024). "Liberals pick management consultant Simon Kennedy for Cook byelection". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
- ^ Raue, Ben (23 January 2024). "Cook by-election, 2024". tallyroom.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
Simone Francis Gagatam (Sustainable Australia)
- ^ "Labor will not select a candidate in Cook by-election". Sky News Australia. 22 March 2024. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024 – via MSN.
- ^ Dole, Nick (4 March 2024). "Simon Kennedy wins preselection for Liberals in seat of Cook following Scott Morrison's resignation". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024.
- ^ AEC [@AusElectoralCom] (16 April 2024). "The Cook federal by-election result has officially been declared this morning with Simon Kennedy (LIB) officially elected" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 21 April 2024. Retrieved 21 April 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Cook, NSW". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 April 2024.
- ^ Green, Antony. "Cook By-election 2024 Results". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
