2016 Montana gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 74.44% 2.26[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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  Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's Governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.
In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%. This is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Montana other than a U.S. Senate race. This is also the last time the winning gubernatorial and presidential candidates in Montana were of different political parties.
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Steve Bullock, incumbent governor
- Running mate: Mike Cooney, incumbent lieutenant governor[2]
- Bill McChesney, former state representative[3]
- Running mate: Mike Anderson
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent) | 109,450 | 91.3% | |
| Democratic | Bill McChesney | 10,486 | 8.7% | |
| Total votes | 119,936 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Greg Gianforte, founder of RightNow Technologies and conservative activist[4][5][6]
- Running mate: Lesley Robinson, Phillips County Commissioner
- Terry Nelson, planning administrator for Ravalli County, Montana[7]
- Running mate: Niki Sardot
Withdrawn[edit]
- Brad Johnson, chairman of the Montana Public Service Commission and former secretary of state of Montana[8]
- Mark Perea, businessman and nominee for the state senate in 2012[9] (did not file)
Declined[edit]
- Taylor Brown, state senator[10]
- Jeff Essman, state representative and former president of the State Senate[11]
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana (running for re-election)[4]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[4]
Endorsements[edit]
Greg Gianforte
- U.S. Senators
- Conrad Burns, former U.S. Senator[12]
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator[13]
- State officials
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[14]
- Rick Hill, former U.S. Representative and 2012 GOP gubernatorial nominee[12]
- Ron Marlenee, former U.S. Representative[12]
- Judy Martz, former governor of Montana[14]
- Marc Racicot, former Governor of Montana[14]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative[12]
- Stan Stephens, former Governor of Montana[14]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative[13]
- Organizations
- Montana Chamber of Commerce[15]
- Montana Farm Bureau Federation[16]
- National Federation of Independent Business[17]
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Gianforte | 109,882 | 76.4% | |
| Republican | Terry Nelson | 33,987 | 23.6% | |
| Total votes | 143,869 | 100.0% | ||
Third parties[edit]
Independent[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Christopher Zarcone[9]
Libertarian[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Ted Dunlap, perennial candidate[18]
- Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate
Withdrew[edit]
- Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate[9]
General election[edit]
Debates[edit]
- Complete video of debate, September 19, 2016 - C-SPAN
Endorsements[edit]
Greg Gianforte
- Governors
- Marc Racicot, Montana (former)[19]
- Judy Martz, Montana (former)[19]
- State officials
- U.S. Senators
- Steve Daines, Montana[19]
- Conrad Burns, Montana (former) (deceased)[19]
- U.S. Representatives
- Rick Hill, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)[19]
- Ron Marlenee, Montana's 2nd congressional district (former)[19]
- Denny Rehberg, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)[19]
- Ryan Zinke, Montana's at-large congressional district[19]
- Organizations
- Gun Owners of America[19]
- Montana Chamber of Commerce[19]
- Montana Farm Bureau Federation PAC[19]
- National Federation of Independent Business[19]
- National Rifle Association of America[19]
- Susan B. Anthony List[19]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[20] | Lean D | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[21] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Lean D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[24] | Lean D | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[25] | Tossup | October 27, 2016 |
Polling[edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock (D) | Greg Gianforte (R) | Ted Dunlap (L) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 46% | 7% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 410 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 44% | 8% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 46% | 7% | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 376 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 43% | 7% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 385 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 41% | 7% | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 39% | 7% | 1% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 10–12, 2016 | 1,003 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 6% |
| Montana State University Billings | October 3–10, 2016 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 32% | 3% | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Ryan Zinke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock (D) | Ryan Zinke (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3% | 44% | 44% | — | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | November 24–25, 2014 | 836 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | — | 10% |
- with Tim Fox
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bullock (D) | Tim Fox (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | February 24–25, 2015 | 1,035 | ± 3% | 46% | 38% | — | 16% |
| Gravis Marketing | November 24–25, 2014 | 836 | ± 3% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 20–22, 2013 | 741 | ± 4% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
Results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent) | 255,933 | 50.25% | +1.35% | |
| Republican | Greg Gianforte | 236,115 | 46.35% | -0.99% | |
| Libertarian | Ted Dunlap | 17,312 | 3.40% | -0.36% | |
| Total votes | 509,360 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
References[edit]
- ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (March 1, 2016). "Bullock files for re-election for governor". KTVQ. Archived from the original on March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
- ^ "Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race". Independent Record. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b c "AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016". The Bozeman Daily Chronicle. November 13, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
- ^ McCumber, David (August 17, 2015). "Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor". The Montana Standard. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
- ^ Calvin, Bobby (January 20, 2016). "Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Retrieved January 20, 2016.
- ^ Bragg, Dennis. "Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on March 6, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
- ^ "Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. January 27, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
- ^ a b c Carter, Troy (February 1, 2015). "First contestant enters GOP gubernatorial field". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Archived from the original on February 5, 2015. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
- ^ Flint, Aaron (January 26, 2015). "Report: Taylor Brown Doesn't Rule Out Run for Governor". Northern Broadcasting System. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 7, 2015.
- ^ Jacobson, Louis (January 23, 2015). "Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016 Governors Races". Governing. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ a b c d "Former US Senator Conrad Burns, Former US Reps Rehberg, Hill, and Marlenee Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 12, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
- ^ a b "Daines, Zinke Endorse Greg Gianforte, Lesley Robinson For Gov., Lt. Gov. Of Montana". Fairfield Sun Times. April 5, 2016.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b c d "Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, Former Governors Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 11, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
- ^ "GIANFORTE/ROBINSON LAND ENDORSEMENT FROM MONTANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE". National Federation of Independent Business. June 17, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
- ^ "Gianforte-Robinson Land Important Endorsement in 2016 Election, AG is Montana's Number One Industry". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 21, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
- ^ "NFIB Endorses Greg Gianforte for Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. August 16, 2016.
- ^ Backus, Perry (March 20, 2016). "Libertarian from Conner running for governor". Independent Record. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Endorsements". gregformontana.com. Archived from the original on October 30, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on June 12, 2017. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
External links[edit]
- Official campaign websites (archived)