2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas

2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Turnout	38.39%
	Boozman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Eldridge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50%; No votes
U.S. senator before election; John Boozman; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; John Boozman; Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1.^[1] This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

John Boozman, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]
Curtis Coleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Polling[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Boozman	Curtis Coleman	Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College	February 4, 2016	457	± 4.6%	68%	23%	9%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Boozman (incumbent)	298,039	76.45%
	Republican	Curtis Coleman	91,795	23.55%
Total votes			389,834	100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Conner Eldridge, former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas^[4]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Conner Eldridge	214,228	100.00%
Total votes			214,228	100.00%

Third parties[edit]

The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race.^[5]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014^[5]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

John Boozman (R), incumbent senator
Conner Eldridge (D), former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
Frank Gilbert (L), DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014

Debates[edit]

Dates	Location	Boozman	Eldridge	Gilbert	Link
October 12, 2016	Little Rock, Arkansas	Participant	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions[edit]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[6]	Safe R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[7]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[8]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[9]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[10]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Boozman (R)	Conner Eldridge (D)	Frank Gilbert (L)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	930	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	798	± 4.6%	55%	42%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	696	± 4.6%	56%	43%	—	—	1%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	593	± 4.6%	54%	43%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	475	± 4.6%	52%	46%	—	—	2%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	484	± 4.6%	54%	44%	—	—	2%
University of Arkansas	October 18–25, 2016	800	± 3.5%	61%	38%	—	1%	—
Talk Business/Hendrix College	October 21, 2016	463	± 4.6%	52%	34%	4%	2%	8%
Talk Business/Hendrix College	September 15–17, 2016	831	± 3.4%	55%	29%	5%	3%	8%
Emerson College	September 9–13, 2016	600	± 3.6%	44%	30%	—	11%	15%
Talk Business/Hendrix College	June 21, 2016	751	± 3.6%	51%	29%	6%	—	14%

Hypothetical polling

with Mike Beebe

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Boozman (R)	Mike Beebe (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 1–3, 2014	1,066	± 3%	40%	46%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	September 18–21, 2014	1,453	± 2.6%	39%	49%	—	12%
Talk Business/Hendrix College	June 8–11, 2015	1,183	± 1.84%	37%	45%	—	18%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2016^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	John Boozman (incumbent)	661,984	59.77%	+1.87%
	Democratic	Conner Eldridge	400,602	36.17%	-0.78%
	Libertarian	Frank Gilbert	43,866	3.96%	+0.72%
	Write-in		1,070	0.10%	N/A
Total votes			1,107,522	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
Jackson (largest city: Newport)
Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)

References[edit]

^ "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
^ DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.
^ "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
^ Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.
^ ^a ^b Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[1] "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.

[DeMillo-2] DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.

[ARprimaryresults-3] "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.

[4] Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.

[libertarians-5] Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.

[6] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[7] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[8] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[9] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[10] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[ARGeneralElection-11] "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.

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2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Results[edit]

Third parties[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

References[edit]

External links[edit]

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