2018 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2018 United States Senate election in Nevada

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Turnout62.26% Increase
 
Nominee Jacky Rosen Dean Heller
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 490,071 441,202
Percentage 50.41% 45.38%

Rosen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     80–90%      >90%
Heller:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     80–90%      >90%

U.S. senator before election

Dean Heller
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jacky Rosen
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Dean Heller.

Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections.[1][2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018.

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.[3]

Background[edit]

Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.[4][5]

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]

Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972.[9]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Sherry Brooks
  • Sarah Gazala, teacher[10]
  • Vic Harrell
  • Tom Heck
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator[11]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Dean Heller
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State officials
State senators
State assembly members
Local officials
Individuals
Groups
Danny Tarkanian (withdrew)
Federal officials
Governors

Polling[edit]

Hypothetical polling
with Danny Tarkanian
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller
Danny
Tarkanian
Undecided
JMC Analytics October 24–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 44% 17%
JMC Analytics August 24–25, 2017 700 ± 3.7% 31% 39% 31%
The Tarrance Group (R-Heller) August 14–16, 2017 300 ± 5.8% 55% 33% 12%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Heller—70–80%
  •   Heller—60–70%
  •   Heller—50–60%
Republican primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 99,509 69.97%
Republican Tom Heck 26,296 18.49%
Republican None of These Candidates 5,978 4.20%
Republican Sherry Brooks 5,145 3.62%
Republican Sarah Gazala 4,011 2.82%
Republican Vic Harrell 1,282 0.90%
Total votes 142,221 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Danny Burleigh
  • David Drew Knight
  • Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[34]
  • Allen Rheinhart, civil rights activist (Black Lives Matter), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Jacky Rosen, U.S. Representative for NV-03[35]
  • Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016[36]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Jacky Rosen
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Rosen—80–90%
  •   Rosen—70–80%
  •   Rosen—60–70%
  •   Rosen—50–60%
  •   Rosen—30–40%
  •   Rosen/Knight tie—<30%
Democratic primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jacky Rosen 110,567 77.11%
Democratic None of These Candidates 10,078 7.03%
Democratic David Knight 6,346 4.43%
Democratic Allen Rheinhart 4,782 3.33%
Democratic Jesse Sbaih 4,540 3.17%
Democratic Bobby Mahendra 3,835 2.67%
Democratic Danny Burleigh 3,244 2.26%
Total votes 143,392 100.00%

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Kamau Bakari[76]
  • Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate[77]

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[78] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[79] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[81] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[82] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[83] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[84] Tossup October 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[85] Tossup November 6, 2018

Endorsements[edit]

Jacky Rosen (D)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers
Dean Heller (R)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
State officials
State senators
State assembly members
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dean Heller (R) Incumbent $14,525,094 $12,538,859 $2,211,457
Jacky Rosen (D) $21,571,221 $20,817,629 $768,851
Source: Federal Election Commission[109]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Jacky
Rosen (D)
Tim
Hagan (L)
None of
these
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46%
Emerson College November 1–4, 2018 1,197 ± 3.0% 45% 49% 3% 4%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 44%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 43%
Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 1, 2018 2,587 ± 1.9% 49% 46% 2% 3%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 45%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 43% 46%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 622 LV ± 4.8% 45% 48% 2% 4% 0% 1%
807 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 4% 8% 0% 3%
Gravis Marketing Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–26, 2018 773 ± 3.5% 45% 47% 7%
Ipsos October 12–19, 2018 1,137 ± 3.0% 47% 41% 8% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) October 15–16, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 46% 48% 7%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 614 ± 3.7% 49% 51%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2018 625 ± 4.2% 48% 41% 3% 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–10, 2018 642 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 1% 7%
NBC News/Marist September 30 – October 3, 2018 574 LV ± 5.5% 44% 42% 8% 2% <1% 4%
46% 44% 5% 1% 4%
780 RV ± 4.5% 42% 41% 8% 3% <1% 6%
45% 43% 6% 1% 6%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS September 19 – October 2, 2018 513 ± 5.0% 45% 44% 4% 7%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018 693 LV ± 4.6% 43% 47% 4% 5% 0% 1%
851 RV ± 4.1% 40% 43% 5% 10% 0% 2%
Ipsos September 7–17, 2018 1,039 ± 4.0% 46% 43% 4% 8%
Gravis Marketing September 11–12, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 8%
Suffolk University Archived December 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine[a] September 5–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 42% 2% 2% 4%[110] 9%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) August 20–21, 2018 528 ± 4.3% 43% 48%
Suffolk University Archived July 31, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 24–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 40% 2% 5% 3%[111] 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,097 ± 5.5% 45% 48% 7%
Gravis Marketing June 23–26, 2018 630 ± 3.9% 41% 45% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) April 30 – May 1, 2018 637 ± 3.9% 42% 44% 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,332 ± 5.0% 44% 50% 6%
The Mellman Group April 12–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–17, 2018 720 ± 3.7% 39% 44% 17%
Public Policy Polling June 23–25, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 41% 42% 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) July 26–27, 2017 847 ± 3.6% 31% 50% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care) June 13–14, 2017 706 ± 3.4% 39% 46% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–17, 2018 720 ± 3.7% 41% 47% 12%
with Dina Titus
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Dina
Titus (D)
Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research June 23–29, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018[112]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jacky Rosen 490,071 50.41% +5.70%
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 441,202 45.38% -0.49%
None of These Candidates 15,303 1.57% -2.97%
Independent Barry Michaels 9,269 0.95% N/A
Libertarian Tim Hagan 9,196 0.95% N/A
Independent American Kamau Bakari 7,091 0.73% -4.16%
Total votes 972,132 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Heller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest, Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes.[113]

By county
County Jacky Rosen
Democratic
Dean Heller
Republican
None of These
Candidates
Barry Michaels
Independent
Tim Hagan
Libertarian
Kamau Bakari
IAPN
Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Carson City 9,321 41.07 12,328 54.32 372 1.64 250 1.10 254 1.12 169 0.74 -3,007 -13.25 22,694
Churchill 1,999 20.80 7,042 73.26 218 2.27 145 1.51 116 1.21 92 0.96 -5,042 -52.47 9,612
Clark 359,028 55.06 266,675 40.90 9,810 1.50 5,922 0.91 5,823 0.89 4,786 0.73 92,353 14.16 652,044
Douglas 8,303 31.86 16,742 64.25 388 1.49 224 0.86 266 1.02 134 0.51 -8,439 -32.39 26,057
Elko 2,904 19.14 11,491 75.73 260 1.71 172 1.13 205 1.35 142 0.94 -8,587 -56.59 15,174
Esmeralda 52 14.02 280 75.47 17 4.58 9 2.43 10 2.70 3 0.81 -228 -61.46 371
Eureka 74 9.76 633 83.51 22 2.90 13 1.72 9 1.19 7 0.92 -559 -73.75 758
Humboldt 1,188 21.41 4,022 72.48 139 2.50 78 1.41 71 1.28 51 0.92 -2,834 -51.07 5,549
Lander 350 16.72 1,588 75.87 64 3.06 30 1.43 36 1.72 25 1.19 -1,238 -59.15 2,093
Lincoln 283 14.51 1,547 79.33 62 3.18 27 1.38 21 1.08 10 0.51 -1,264 -64.82 1,950
Lyon 5,526 26.41 14,296 68.32 406 1.94 282 1.35 257 1.23 157 0.75 -8,770 -41.91 20,924
Mineral 570 31.49 1,056 58.34 90 4.97 40 2.21 37 2.04 17 0.94 -486 -26.85 1,810
Nye 4,888 27.93 11,397 65.11 435 2.49 278 1.59 284 1.62 221 1.26 -6,509 -37.19 17,503
Pershing 398 22.56 1,271 72.05 39 2.21 26 1.47 19 1.08 11 0.62 -873 -49.49 1,764
Storey 724 30.68 1,495 63.35 51 2.16 32 1.36 32 1.36 26 1.10 -771 -32.67 2,360
Washoe 93,828 49.85 86,988 46.21 2,829 1.50 1,682 0.89 1,716 0.91 1,184 0.63 6,840 3.63 188,227
White Pine 635 19.59 2,351 72.52 101 3.12 59 1.82 40 1.23 56 1.73 -1,716 -52.93 3,242
Totals 490,071 50.41 441,202 45.38 15,303 1.57 9,269 0.95 9,196 0.95 7,091 0.73 48,869 5.03 972,132
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional districts[edit]

Rosen won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[114]

District Rosen Heller Representative
1st 63.77% 31.62% Dina Titus
2nd 42.53% 53.19% Mark Amodei
3rd 50.39% 45.95% Susie Lee
4th 51.44% 44.06% Steven Horsford

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Archived December 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine

References[edit]

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  83. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  84. ^ "2018 Midterm Election Forecast: Senate - Nevada". FiveThirtyEight. October 29, 2018.
  85. ^ Catherine Cortez Masto [@CatherineForNV] (October 20, 2018). "Proud to join @JoeBiden in Las Vegas to get out the vote for @RosenforNevada @nvdems today! I need Jacky by my side in the Senate & all of the fantastic dems running to fight for NV families. We have the power to take back the agenda. Make a plan to vote: http://votenvdems.com" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  86. ^ Jacky Rosen. "There are just 17 DAYS until Nevadans head to the polls. @CoryBooker is #ReadyForRosen". Twitter.
  87. ^ Dick Durbin. "Nevada is one of the most critical battlegrounds in the country. Support @RosenForNevada and help #FlipTheSenate". Twitter.
  88. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand. "For Democrats to take back the Senate in November, we must elect @RosenforNevada. But President Trump is in NV today to campaign for her right-wing opponent, so #TodayWeAct to make an impact where we can in a race this tight – and this important. Here are 3 ways to get involved". Twitter.
  89. ^ NV Dems. ""You make a difference. Every time you make a phone call, every time you knock on a door, you have the chance to get one more voter for Jacky and Susie!" Senator @maziehirono is right". Twitter.
  90. ^ Brian Schatz. "Donald Trump is coming to Nevada this weekend to campaign, and I would like for us to raise money for Jacky Rosen in response. The race is very very very close. Please do what you can and thank you". Twitter.
  91. ^ Terri Sewell. "Speaking at a Sheppard's Breakfast in Las Vegas with my friends and colleagues @RosenforNevada, and @StevenHorsford! #BlueWaveComing2018". Twitter.
  92. ^ a b Jacky Rosen. "You won't want to miss our Get Out the Vote Rally to Protect our Health Care on Friday with @JimmyKimmel, @BrandonFlowers, and @KamalaHarris". Twitter.
  93. ^ Jacky Rosen. "Thank you for your support, @CecileRichards!". Twitter.
  94. ^ Adam Rippon. "Hey Nevadans! YOU have the power to make change by getting out and voting tomorrow for @RosenForNevada and @nvdems! #RiseNVote #ProudToVoteEarly". Twitter.
  95. ^ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  96. ^ Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
  97. ^ "Nevada". Official UAW Endorsements. United Automobile Workers.
  98. ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. September 19, 2018.
  99. ^ "Jacky Rosen – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  100. ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  101. ^ "Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network". rachelsactionnetwork.org.
  102. ^ "2018 Endorsements". Sierra Club. December 7, 2017. Archived from the original on July 12, 2018. Retrieved May 30, 2018.
  103. ^ John Boozman. "I'm proud to serve with @DeanHeller in the Senate. Working with him on the #Veterans' Affairs committee, I know Dean cares deeply about ensuring our nation lives up to the promises made to those who have served & sacrificed for America and he'll continue that fight if re-elected". Twitter.
  104. ^ a b Dean Heller. "Looking forward to having Senator @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenCoryGardner here in Nevada!". Twitter.
  105. ^ Thom Tillis. ".@DeanHeller has been a staunch champion for our veterans as a member of the Senate VA Committee. His opponent just voted against government funding for veterans' benefits". Twitter.
  106. ^ Donald Trump Jr. "It's simple - A vote for liberal Jacky Rosen is a vote to turn Nevada into California. Nevada patriots - Get out the vote on Tuesday for @Deanheller! #MAGA #NVSEN". Twitter.
  107. ^ "EDITORIAL: Return Dean Heller to the US Senate". Las Vegas Review-Journal. October 19, 2018.
  108. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  109. ^ Barry Michaels (I) and Kamau Bakari (AI) with 2%
  110. ^ Barry Michaels (I) with 2%, Kamau Bakari (AI) with 1%, other with 0%
  111. ^ "U.S. Senate - Nevada General Election 2018". silverstateelection.com. Archived from the original on August 2, 2019. Retrieved December 2, 2018.
  112. ^ "Nevada | Full Senate results". cnn.com.
  113. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites