2024 Saxony state election
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All 120 seats in the Landtag of Saxony 61 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next election to the Landtag of Saxony is scheduled for 1 September 2024.
Background[edit]
The 2019 election was marked by high gains for the AfD, which gained almost 28 percent of the vote and became the second strongest force. After losses, the CDU ended up with almost 32 percent as the strongest party ahead of the AfD. The Left and the SPD received 10.4 and 7.7 percent of the vote, respectively. The Greens increased and achieved their best result in a state election in Saxony with 8.6 percent, the FDP again missed entering parliament with 4.5 percent.
Opinion polls[edit]
Graphical summary[edit]
Party polling[edit]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CDU | AfD | Linke | Grüne | SPD | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 19 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 | 3,002 | 31 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| INSA | 11–18 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 30 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6–15 Mar 2024 | 1,200 | 31.5 | 31 | 3 | 6.5 | 6 | – | 13.5 | 8.5 | 0.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 18–23 Jan 2024 | 1,177 | 30 | 35 | 4 | 7 | 7 | – | 8 | 9 | 5 |
| Forsa | 7–10 Jan 2024 | 1,507 | 30 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 2–9 Jan 2024 | 970 | 33.5 | 32 | 8.5 | 7 | 6 | 2.5 | – | 10 | 1.5 |
| 30.5 | 28.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 15.5 | 6.5 | 2 | |||
| Civey | 18 Dec – 1 Jan 2024 | 3,004 | 33 | 37 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | – | 11 | 4 |
| Civey | 19 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 | 3,002 | 33 | 33 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | – | 11 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023 | 1,173 | 28.5 | 32.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 4 | – | 13.5 | 4 |
| 27.5 | 31 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6 | – | 14.5 | 11 | 3.5 | |||
| INSA | 11–22 Aug 2023 | 1,500 | 29 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | – | 7 | 6 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–12 Jun 2023 | 1,558 | 30 | 32.5 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 5 | – | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16–28 May 2023 | 987 | 31 | 32 | 9.5 | 7 | 9.5 | 4 | – | 7 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–20 Dec 2022 | 1,020 | 29.5 | 31 | 8 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3.5 | – | 8 | 1.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17–19 Sep 2022 | 1,000 | 34 | 30 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | – | 9 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–15 Jun 2022 | 1,204 | 35 | 28 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 9 | 3 | – | 8 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–16 May 2022 | 1,023 | 33 | 27 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 12 | 4 | – | 9 | 6 |
| INSA | 1–6 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 25 | 28 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 7 | – | 10 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Mar – 1 Apr 2022 | 1,100 | 29 | 26.5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 5 | – | 9.5 | 2.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 17–22 Feb 2022 | 1,178 | 27 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 7 | – | 11 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5–12 Oct 2021 | 1,002 | 22 | 25.5 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 10 | – | 7.5 | 3.5 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 17.2 | 24.6 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 19.3 | 11.0 | – | 9.9 | 5.3 |
| INSA | 6–13 Sep 2021 | 1,000 | 31 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 8 | – | 6 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 13–18 Aug 2021 | 1,179 | 35 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 6 | – | 10 | 14 |
| INSA | 2–9 Aug 2021 | 1,001 | 34 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | – | 5 | 9 |
| INSA | 18–25 May 2021 | 1,000 | 24 | 26 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 12 | – | 8 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–17 Dec 2020 | – | 40 | 30 | 9.5 | 8 | 7 | 1.5 | – | 4 | 10 |
| INSA | 1–15 Dec 2020 | 1,008 | 34 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | – | 7 | 8 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25 Aug – 3 Sep 2020 | – | 38 | 27.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 5 | 3 | – | 6 | 10.5 |
| INSA | 29 Jun – 2 Jul 2020 | 1,020 | 36 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 | – | 6 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 2–9 Jun 2020 | – | 40 | 26 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 14 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 1–5 Apr 2020 | – | 36.5 | 29 | 9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 4 | – | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| 2019 state election | 1 Sep 2019 | – | 32.1 | 27.5 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | – | 9.2 | 4.6 |
Minister-President polling[edit]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | .jpg) |  | .jpg) |  |  |  | None/ Unsure | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kretschmer CDU | Urban AfD | Chrupalla AfD | Gebhardt Linke | Günther Grüne | Dulig SPD | |||||
| Wahlkreisprognose | 2–9 Jan 2024 | 970 | 56 | 23 | – | – | – | – | 21 | 33 |
| 56 | – | 29 | – | – | – | 15 | 27 | |||
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023 | 1,173 | 57 | 26 | – | – | – | – | 17 | 31 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–12 Jun 2023 | 1,558 | 45 | 21 | – | – | – | – | 34 | 24 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–20 Dec 2022 | 1,020 | 39 | 24 | – | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 15 |
