Particularly dangerous situation
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In weather forecasting in the United States, "particularly dangerous situation" (PDS) is enhanced wording used by the National Weather Service to convey special urgency in some watch or warning messages when there is a significant risk of extreme weather, most commonly from types of weather events that are usually less severe by comparison, such as a severe thunderstorm outbreak or flash flooding. It is used in the format "This is a particularly dangerous situation..." at the discretion of the issuing forecaster. A watch or warning bearing the phrase is referred to as a PDS watch or PDS warning as shorthand jargon.
It was first used by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a national guidance center of the National Weather Service, for tornado watches and eventually expanded to use for other severe weather watches and warnings by the agency's regional forecast offices. It is most commonly used for major tornado outbreaks or long-lived, extreme derecho events, and has been used for non-convective weather hazards such as exceptional flash flooding, or a wildfire.[1][2]
PDS watches and warnings alike are quite uncommon; less than 3% of watches issued by the SPC from 1996 to 2005 were PDS watches, or an average of 24 each year.[3] When a PDS watch is issued, there are often more PDS watches issued for the same weather system, even on the same day during major outbreaks, so the number of days per year that a PDS watch is issued is significantly lower.
Background[edit]
The short history of the origin of the option of issuing a tornado watch with the enhanced PDS wording occurred during the winter of 1981–82 when the Severe Local Storms (SELS) unit transitioned to a more flexible method of issuing weather products. Ed Ferguson, Deputy Director of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC), suggested to Lead Forecaster Jack Hales that the guidance center could provide an opportunity to give more resolution to the tornado watch product. Hales suggested the PDS option to identify areas where, a few times each year, conditions are most likely to aid in the development of large and intense tornadoes. The first PDS tornado watch was issued by Robert H. Johns for the April 2, 1982 tornado outbreak across the southern and central Great Plains.[4]
While historically applied only to severe thunderstorm, tornado and flash flood watches (i.e., severe local storm "polygonal" events), PDS wording could theoretically be applied to other types of weather watches (such as winter storm, high wind, hurricane, or fire weather watches) when an enhanced threat for such conditions exists. These watches have generally (but not always) been issued during a high risk or an upper-end moderate risk either of severe storms from the SPC's convective outlooks or of flash flooding from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)'s excessive rainfall outlooks.
On April 24, 2011, the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Memphis, Tennessee, issued the first PDS flash flood watch to highlight the threat for widespread, significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding due to repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms.
On December 19, 2017, and August 3, 2018, the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Reno, Nevada, issued PDS red flag warnings to highlight the threat for potentially life-threatening fire danger due to strong gusty winds and low humidity.
Issuance[edit]
PDS flash flood watch[edit]
PDS flash flood watches are issued when there is a higher-than-normal risk of widespread, life-threatening flash flooding. These watches are issued by local NWS Weather Forecast Offices, not the Storm Prediction Center.
Below is the first PDS flash flood watch, which was issued by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Memphis, Tennessee, on April 24, 2011, as mentioned above.[5]
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 ...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING... ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... A BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG IT INTO MISSOURI AND PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS FURTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEWLY STALLED BOUNDARY AND SET OFF ADDITIONAL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>014-TNZ003-004-019>021- 048>055-088>092-250400- /O.NEW.KMEG.FF.A.0007.110426T0000Z-110428T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS- CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS- LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-PRENTISS- COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE- UNION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD- CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON- DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE- HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE... WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA... SOUTHAVEN... OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...BOONEVILLE... CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY... MARTIN... DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON... COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN... COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE... BOLIVAR... SAVANNAH 239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST ARKANSAS...CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...CROSS... LEE...MISSISSIPPI...PHILLIPS...POINSETT AND ST. FRANCIS. IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ALCORN...BENTON...COAHOMA...DESOTO... LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PANOLA...PRENTISS...QUITMAN...TATE... TIPPAH...TISHOMINGO...TUNICA AND UNION. IN WEST TENNESSEE... CARROLL...CHESTER...CROCKETT...DECATUR...DYER...FAYETTE... GIBSON...HARDEMAN...HARDIN...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...HENRY... LAUDERDALE...MADISON...MCNAIRY...SHELBY...TIPTON AND WEAKLEY. * FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. * RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUCH AS THESE MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD... SIGNIFICANT...AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THIS EVENT MAY BE AS SEVERE AS THE MAY 1–2, 2010 FLOODING IN PLACES. FLASH FLOODING OF CITIES...RURAL AREAS...RIVERS...AND SMALL STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-250400- /O.EXT.KMEG.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110428T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...KENNETT... CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY 239 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST ARKANSAS... CLAY...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN WEST TENNESSEE...LAKE AND OBION. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THIS...IN COMBINATION OF THE 2 TO 4 INCHES THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN MAY LEAD TO TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. * RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUCH AS THESE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD... SIGNIFICANT...AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THIS EVENT MAY BE AS SEVERE AS THE MAY 1-2 2010 FLOODING IN MANY PLACES. FLASH FLOODING OF CITIES...RURAL AREAS...RIVERS...AND SMALL STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ BORGHOFF
PDS flash flood warning[edit]
PDS flash flood warnings are issued when there is a higher than normal risk of widespread, life-threatening flash flooding. Like PDS flash flood watches, they are issued by the local NWS Weather Forecast Offices, rather than the Storm Prediction Center. Recently, they have been issued as PDS flash flood emergencies, most notably by the National Weather Service offices in Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas.
This warning was issued in the morning of May 30, 2018, by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Greenville–Spartanburg, South Carolina, while Subtropical Storm Alberto was affecting the area. It was also issued on September 1, 2021, by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in New York, New York while the remnants of Hurricane Ida affected the region. It also contains the flash flood emergency phrase, which further underscores the risk of life-threatening flash flooding.[6][7]
NCC111-301630- /O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-180530T1630Z/ 00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 626 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE TAHOMA DUE TO POTENTIAL IMMINENT FAILURE OF TAHOMA DAM...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Central McDowell County in western North Carolina... * Until 1230 PM EDT Wednesday. * At 611 AM EDT, Emergency Management is reporting that the risk of imminent failure remains at Lake Tahoma Dam and mandatory evacuations remain in effect. This emergency evacuation was issued at the recommendation of dam engineers who remain on scene to monitor the dam. Lake Tahoma Dam is currently in a Level 1 or Imminent Failure Condition. This condition will continue until the engineers have the opportunity to thoroughly inspect the dam during daylight hours. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! MANDATORY EVACUATIONS are underway for ALL residents and businesses downstream of Lake Tahoma along Buck Creek and along the Catawba River from Buck Creek and Lake Tahoma Rd (NC 80) to the mouth of Lake James. To save your life, please heed all county evacuation notices and take action to leave the vicinity immediately! Repeating, this is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for McDowell County for areas downstream of Lake Tahoma and Lake Tahoma Dam to the mouth of Lake James along the Catawba River. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Repeating, mandatory evacuations remain underway from Lake Tahoma Dam at Lake Shore Dr down Lake Tahoma Rd (NC 80) to the confluence of the Catawba River near US 70, Resistoflex Rd, and Riverside Park. Residences and businesses along US 70 from Lake Tahoma Rd to US 221 Business near Garden Creek, as well as areas along Hankins Rd. to the mouth of Lake James are included in the mandatory evacuation. LEAVE NOW! * Evacuees are being asked to seek shelter at the Glenwood Baptist Church, the Old Fort Baptist Church, or the YMCA in Marion near McDowell Hospital. * Some locations that are experiencing flooding include... Pleasant Gardens, northwest Marion, and Lake James. * The excessive rainfall over the warned area has caused numerous mud slides and additional mud slides are possible near steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials and are very powerful. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground NOW. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do NOT attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. The floodwave along Buck Creek above and below Lake Tahoma will increase the risk of landslides, especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other debris. && LAT...LON 3574 8207 3572 8205 3574 8202 3574 8198 3570 8196 3570 8200 3567 8206 3573 8211 $$ JMP PDS high wind warning[edit]
PDS high wind warnings are issued by the National Weather Service when non-convective winds are expected to be especially damaging or dangerous to people and property, beyond what would be expected of a typical high wind warning.
The warning below was issued by the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, Utah, on September 8, 2020, for an extreme downslope wind event in Salt Lake City and the northern Wasatch Front.[8]
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 911 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2020 UTZ002-003-082315- /O.CON.KSLC.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200909T1500Z/ Northern Wasatch Front-Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys- Including the cities of Ogden, Bountiful, and Salt Lake City 911 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY... ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts in excess of 70 mph are expected. Wind gusts as high as 98 mph near Farmington, Centerville and the mouth of Weber Canyon have been reported this morning. This is a particularly dangerous situation. * WHERE...Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys and Northern Wasatch Front. * WHEN...Until 9 AM MDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially for high profile vehicles. The most impacted travel routes are expected to be along the I-15 corridor between Salt Lake City and Layton, the Legacy Parkway, the US 89 corridor in Davis and Weber Counties, and Foothill Drive. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Stay inside! Flying debris and numerous falling trees may be deadly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. && $$
PDS red flag warning[edit]
PDS red flag warnings are issued by the National Weather Service to inform the public that there is an unusually high threat of wildland fire combustion, and rapid spread of wildfires, due to very dry fuels, very low humidity levels, and strong winds.
The PDS red flag warning below was issued by the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada, on December 19, 2017.[9]
On August 3, 2018, the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada, issued another PDS red flag warning to communicate the threat of life-threatening fire danger due to strong gusty winds and low humidity.
On April 12, 2022, the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, issued a PDS red flag warning because of an extreme fire weather behavior (overlap of extremely dry fuels, humidity as low as 8 percent and wind gusting to 60 mph).[10]
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Reno NV 140 PM PST Tue Dec 19 2017 CAZ273-201500- /O.CON.KREV.FW.W.0017.171220T0300Z-171221T0300Z/ Mono and Eastern Alpine Counties- 140 PM PST Tue Dec 19 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR MONO COUNTY SOUTH OF MONO LAKE... ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... AFFECTED AREA...Fire Zone 273 Mono and Eastern Alpine Counties. Winds...Southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph late tonight into Wednesday morning. The winds will shift to the north by early Wednesday afternoon with speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 55 mph. Location and timing of strongest wind gusts...The strongest wind gusts will be along the 395 corridor tonight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon the strongest gusts will be in the Owens and Chalfant Valleys. Humidity...As low as 10 to 20% tonight and again late Wednesday afternoon. Brief recovery near or above 50% is possible late Wednesday morning. Duration...10 to 15 hours, locally up to 20 hours. Impacts...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a particularly dangerous situation with low humidity and very high winds. New fires will grow rapidly out of control, in some cases people may not be able to evacuate safely in time should a fire approach. Avoid outdoor activities that can cause a spark near dry vegetation, such as yard work, target shooting, or campfires. Follow local fire restrictions. Check weather.gov/reno for updates and livingwithfire.info for preparedness tips.
PDS severe thunderstorm watch[edit]
PDS severe thunderstorm watches are issued when there is a higher than normal risk of severe thunderstorm winds capable of major structural damage (in addition to large hail and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes), usually due to a strong and persistent derecho. These watches are very rare (accounting an average of only two each year), as the risk for tornadoes must remain low enough to not warrant a tornado watch (a normal tornado watch would be issued if the tornado risk is significant alongside the extreme wind threat).[3]
This PDS severe thunderstorm watch shown below was issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, on May 12, 2022, for a derecho in portions of Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota.[11]
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Thu May 12, 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph expected Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible
SUMMARY...A prolific wind-damage event is expected unfold from northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota. Pockets of significant wind damage are highly likely, along with the potential for large hail and possible a line-embedded tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Mitchell SD to 5 miles east northeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 205...WW 206...WW 207...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 90 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22045.
...Guyer
PDS special marine warning[edit]
PDS Special marine warnings are issued by the National Weather Service to inform mariners of weather conditions that present a considerable threat to life and property.
On April 19, 2018, the Baltimore/Washington, D.C. forecast office upgraded a special marine warning to PDS status as a gust front approached Chesapeake Bay.[12]
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1138 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 ANZ537-191700- /O.CON.KLWX.MA.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180419T1700Z/ 1138 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 ...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT... For the following areas... Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA... At 1137 AM EDT, a gust front was located near Quantico Marine Base, moving southeast at 25 knots. Numerous wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots have been observed with this line. HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Boaters in small craft could be thrown overboard by suddenly higher winds and waves capsizing their vessel. Locations impacted include... Yeocomico River... Breton Bay... Point Lookout... Coltons Point... Saint Clements Bay... Coles Point... Mouth Of The Potomac River... Saint George Island... White Point Beach... Tall Timbers... and Piney Point. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a particularly dangerous situation. Sudden onset of gale force winds can cause even experienced mariners to capsize. Capsizing in cold water is especially dangerous and can quickly result in hypothermia. If you haven't already done so, move to safe harbor now! && LAT...LON 3797 7641 3801 7647 3802 7651 3807 7654 3811 7660 3815 7661 3817 7676 3817 7685 3826 7686 3825 7684 3823 7660 3821 7657 3814 7652 3806 7633 3801 7629 3791 7627 TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 310DEG 27KT 3871 7777 3813 7848 HAIL...0.00in WIND...>34kts $$ DHOF
PDS special weather statement[edit]
PDS special weather statements are usually issued by the NWS for hazards that do not have a specific code of their own, and pose an exceptionally high risk of damage and loss of life.
The PDS special weather statement below was issued by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York, on December 11, 2013, regarding extreme amounts of lake effect snow to impact the defined area.[citation needed] The same office issued multiple PDS Special Weather Statements for hurricane-force winds forecast to hit the Buffalo area on February 24, 2019.[13][14][15]
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 255 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 NYZ006>008-112200- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 255 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 ...EXTREMELY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE... A BAND OF VERY INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN SANDY CREEK AND ADAMS ALONG I-81...EASTWARD TO LOWVILLE AND CROGHAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS SNOW BAND INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MONTAGUE...MARTINSBURG...HIGHMARKET...TURIN...SANDY CREEK...LACONA...PULASKI...LOWVILLE AND LYONS FALLS. THIS BAND WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE LAKE BANDS. IN ADDITION...WEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES MAKING FOR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... THIS WILL PRODUCE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL...INTERSTATE 81 FROM PULASKI TO ADAMS...AND ALONG STATE ROUTE 12 FROM TURIN TO LOWVILLE. TRAVEL ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. $$ JAM PDS tornado watch[edit]
PDS tornado watches are issued when there is a significantly higher than normal risk of multiple EF2 or stronger tornadoes – especially those that are predicted to be long-track in nature, with path lengths of more than 20 miles – in the watch area (usually amounting to damage consistent with EF4 or EF5 tornadoes at maximum), in addition to including significant wind and hail damage. This enhanced wording in a Tornado Watch is meant to alert the public of the potential for very life-threatening severe weather. Under current criteria, such would be issued when the probability for significant tornadoes is 80% or greater. PDS Tornado Watches are often issued on high risk days for severe weather, though have been issued on high-end moderate risk days.
The PDS tornado watch shown below was issued on March 31, 2023.[16]
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 97 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northwestern Alabama Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The threat for both discrete, tornadic supercells and an eventual severe squall line will spread across the watch area through the evening. A favorably unstable, strong-shear environment will support the threat for significant (EF2+) tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm gusts and large, locally damaging hail also are expected.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Oxford MS to 25 miles east northeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95...WW 96...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25045....Edwards
PDS tornado warning[edit]
PDS tornado warnings are currently issued on an experimental basis by the 38 National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices within the Central Region.[18] The criteria for a PDS warning are when a tornado on the ground has been spotted or confirmed, or a significant tornado is expected based on radar signatures. While the intention of this experimental warning may be to replace the loosely defined tornado emergency, PDS tornado warnings are structured as the second highest level of tornado warning within the impact based warning system (an experiment – which also includes tags within warning products illustrating radar indications or physical observations of tornadoes, and damage potential – participated by the 33 Weather Forecast Offices within the Central Region, as well as eight additional offices within the Western, Eastern and Southern regions that began utilizing the system in the spring of 2014[19]); a tornado emergency, the highest warning level, is used within the United States for destructive tornadoes approaching more densely populated areas. These are the first warnings issued with PDS wording, and like PDS flash flood watches, are issued by local forecast offices.[20][21]
Below is an example of a PDS Tornado Warning from the Darien, Illinois EF3 tornado, issued June 20, 2021.
865 WWUS54 KJAN 200016 SVSJAN Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1115pm MSC073-091-200100- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-200420T0100Z/ Dupage County 716 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR MARION AND LAMAR COUNTIES... At 1112 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Darien, or over Far East Woodridge, moving east at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Burr ridge, Western Springs, and Indian Head Park around 1120 PM CDT. Palos Hills, Justice, Summit, Bridgeview, Hickory Hills, Contryside, Willow Springs, and Hodgkins around 1125 PM Oak Lawn, Midway Airport, Burbank, Alsip, Chicago Ridge, Palos Heights, Crestwood and Worth around 1130 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Chicago Lawn, And Oak Forest. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && OEMC zones… 8 & 10 LAT...LON 3101 8950 3101 8955 3100 8955 3100 8983 3107 8984 3108 8992 3113 8994 3113 9001 3117 9001 3118 9003 3128 9004 3134 8935 3101 8935 3101 8942 3098 8943 3098 8947 TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 266DEG 37KT 3110 8988 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...Considerable HAIL...0.75 $$ DC[22]
PDS wind chill warning[edit]
PDS wind chill warnings are issued when there is an enhanced risk of frost bite, hypothermia, and eventually death due to extremely low wind chills. These warnings are issued by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices rather than the Storm Prediction Center.
The PDS wind chill warning shown below was issued by the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities on January 5, 2014.[23]
629 WWUS43 KMPX 050957 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 357 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...HISTORIC AND LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED... ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... THE COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE 1996 CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 BELOW TODAY AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AIR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO. GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THESE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 50 TO 65 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 50 BELOW CAN CAUSE EXPOSED FLESH TO FREEZE IN ONLY 5 MINUTES. A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHERE GUSTS REACH 35 TO 45 MPH OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF DANGER TO ANYONE STRANDED. MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082>085-091>093-052115- /O.CON.KMPX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140107T1800Z/ DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI- YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-WATONWAN- BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD... MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...GRANITE FALLS... OLIVIA...GAYLORD...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER... ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH... ALBERT LEA 357 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION! * WIND CHILL VALUES: 35 TO 65 BELOW...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: EXPOSED FLESH WILL FREEZE IN 10 MINUTES WITH WIND CHILLS OF 35 BELOW...AND IN 5 MINUTES WITH WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW OR COLDER. * OTHER IMPACTS...WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SHOULD YOUR VEHICLE BECOME STRANDED...YOUR LIFE WILL BE AT RISK. CONSIDER POSTPONING ALL TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. && $$ MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066-068>070-076>078-WIZ014>016-023>028- 052115 /O.CON.KMPX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140107T1800Z/ TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI- CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD- CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON RUSK- ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS... PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE... CENTER CITY...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE... ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE... BURNSVILLE...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...AMERY... BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON... NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE... DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA 357 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION! * WIND CHILL VALUES: 35 TO 65 BELOW...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: EXPOSED FLESH WILL FREEZE IN 10 MINUTES WITH WIND CHILLS OF 35 BELOW...AND IN 5 MINUTES WITH WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW OR COLDER. * OTHER IMPACTS...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. && $$ BORGHOFF
Other watches and warnings[edit]
While the use of PDS wording for other types of watches and warnings has not been used, PDS wording could theoretically be applied to any kind of watch or warning to alert the public to weather events where there exists an increased risk of loss of life or widespread damage to property. Such situations could include PDS watches or warnings for blizzards, ice storms, or extreme heat. For example, on October 29, 2012, in advance of Hurricane Sandy, which was expected to become post-tropical prior to making landfall, a high wind warning was issued for New Jersey stating "This is an extremely dangerous situation!"[24] Similarly, on May 26, 2015, during the flood disaster in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana, a flood warning was issued similar to a PDS flood warning stating "...This is a dangerous and life-threatening situation..."[25] A severe thunderstorm warning bulletin issued by the National Weather Service at Tampa Bay/Ruskin regarding a strong, tornadic storm system moving through the area contained the following: "This storm may cause serious injury and significant property damage."[26]
References[edit]
- ^ NOAA (2004-04-18). "Storm Prediction Center Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)". Retrieved 2008-05-23.
- ^ "National Weather Service Issues Area Red Flag Warning". Retrieved 2018-08-04.
- ^ a b Dean, Andrew R. (2006-11-07). "PDS watches: how dangerous are these "particularly dangerous situations?" (2006 - 23SLS_23sls)". American Meteorological Society. Retrieved 2008-05-23.
- ^ Lewis, John (2007-11-03). "A Forecaster's Story: Robert H. Johns". Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology. 2 (7). doi:10.55599/ejssm.v2i7.12.
- ^ "IEM Valid Time Extent Code (VTEC) App". Mesonet.agron.iastate.edu. Retrieved 2014-01-22.
- ^ "Flash Flood Warning". National Weather Service. 2018-05-30. Retrieved 2018-05-30.
- ^ "Flash Flood Warning". National Weather Service. 2021-09-01. Retrieved 2021-09-01.
- ^ National Weather Service (2020-09-08). "Iowa Environmental Mesonet NWS Product Archive". Retrieved 2020-09-08.
- ^ National Weather Service (2017-12-19). "Iowa Environmental Mesonet NWS Product Archive". Retrieved 2018-04-18.
- ^ "IEM :: Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) App".
- ^ NOAA (2022-05-12). "Storm Prediction Center: Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208".
- ^ Herzmann, Daryl. "IEM :: Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) App". mesonet.agron.iastate.edu. Retrieved 2018-04-19.
- ^ herzmann, daryl. "IEM :: SPS from NWS BUF". mesonet.agron.iastate.edu. Retrieved 2023-01-18.
- ^ herzmann, daryl. "IEM :: SPS from NWS BUF". mesonet.agron.iastate.edu. Retrieved 2023-01-18.
- ^ herzmann, daryl. "IEM :: SPS from NWS BUF". mesonet.agron.iastate.edu. Retrieved 2023-01-18.
- ^ "Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 97". Storm Prediction Center. Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved 31 March 2023.
- ^ Brugge, R. (December 1994). "The Alabama tornado outbreak of 27 March 1994 - an example of tornado formation". Weather. 49 (12): 407–411. Bibcode:1994Wthr...49..407B. doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1994.tb05961.x. ISSN 0043-1656.
- ^ "Impact Based Warning Experimental Product". Crh.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2014-01-22.
- ^ National Weather Service (2014). "Impact Based Warnings". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
- ^ "NWS Expirements" (PDF). NWS. Archived from the original (PDF) on 13 April 2012. Retrieved 15 April 2012.
- ^ "'CATASTROPHIC': Experimental Tornado Warnings to be Explicit". AccuWeather. 2012-04-05. Archived from the original on 2014-03-13. Retrieved 2014-03-12.
- ^ "Tornado Warning". Iowa State University Iowa Environmental Mesonet. National Weather Service Forecast Office in Jackson, Mississippi. Retrieved 30 September 2020.
- ^ National Weather Service (2014-01-05). "Iowa Environmental Mesonet NWS Product Archive". Retrieved 2014-01-06.
- ^ "High Wind Warning – Hurricane Sandy". National Weather Service – Philadelphia/Mount Holly. Retrieved 29 October 2017.
- ^ Payne, Ed; Shoichet, Catherine (26 May 2015). "Running updates: Storms slam Houston, kill 31 in Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico". CNN. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
- ^ "Tampa Bay/Ruskin – Severe Thunderstorm Warning". National Weather Service. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
This article incorporates public domain material from websites or documents of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.