2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 4, 2008. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
New Mexico was won by the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by a 15.13% margin of victory; Obama took 56.91% of the vote while his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, took 41.78%. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe blue state. Due to the extremely narrow margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections (less than 1% in 2004 and less than 0.1% in 2000), it started out as a swing state, but hypothetical general election match-up polls taken in the state continued to show a big lead for Obama. Obama's polling advantage in New Mexico increased so much that McCain did not campaign nearly as much there as he did elsewhere, despite it neighboring his home state of Arizona.
A large Hispanic and Native American as well as a trending Democratic population put Obama over the top.[1] Obama became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win a majority of New Mexico's vote in a presidential election.
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 16 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[2] | Likely D (flip) |
| Cook Political Report[3] | Lean D (flip) |
| The Takeaway[4] | Solid D (flip) |
| Electoral-vote.com[5] | Lean D (flip) |
| Washington Post[6] | Lean D (flip) |
| Politico[7] | Lean D (flip) |
| RealClearPolitics[8] | Lean D (flip) |
| FiveThirtyEight[6] | Solid D (flip) |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe D (flip) |
| The New York Times[10] | Solid D (flip) |
| CNN[11] | Lean D (flip) |
| NPR[6] | Solid D (flip) |
| MSNBC[6] | Lean D (flip) |
| Fox News[12] | Likely D (flip) |
| Associated Press[13] | Likely D (flip) |
| Rasmussen Reports[14] | Safe D (flip) |
Polling
[edit]Obama won a majority of the pre-election polls taken in the state, including sweeping all of them taken after September 14. The final three polls averaged the Democrat leading 55% to 43%.[15]
Fundraising
[edit]John McCain raised a total of $1,016,376 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,987,438.[16]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Obama and his interest groups spent $4,535,378. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,606,796.[17] The Democratic ticket visited the state five times to the Republicans' eight times.[18]
Analysis
[edit] | This section possibly contains original research. (December 2016) |
Hispanic voters comprised 41% of New Mexico's electorate in 2008[19] and make up a plurality of the state's population.[20] George W. Bush received over 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2004. This support was enough for Bush to nip John Kerry by approximately 6,000 votes in New Mexico in 2004. In the previous two elections, New Mexico had been a very close swing state. Al Gore won the state by 300 votes in 2000, which was even narrower than the controversial results in Florida. However, during the 2008 election, New Mexico was regarded as a safe state for Obama. John McCain from neighboring Arizona and held similar views on illegal immigration to those of Bush. Ultimately, McCain obtained 31% of the national Hispanic vote to Obama's 67%, far less than Bush's 44% to John Kerry's 53% in 2004.
Native Americans also represent a key voting demographic in New Mexico.[21] Obama won the Native American vote, 78–21%, and carried most of the counties within the confines of the Navajo Nation.[22] The Republican base in New Mexico consists of the more rural and thinly-populated southeastern part of the state. Democrats are strongest in the state capital, Santa Fe, and its close-in suburbs. The city of Albuquerque and the southwestern part of the state both lean Democratic, but not as overwhelmingly as Santa Fe.
In 2008, Obama carried the state by a 15-point margin, largely by dominating the Albuquerque area. He won Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque itself, by 21 points; Kerry had won it by four points in 2004. While McCain dominated the southeastern part of the state, it was not nearly enough to overcome Obama's edge in the Albuquerque area.[23] As of the 2020 presidential election[update], this is the last election in which Luna County voted for the Democratic candidate.
During the same election, former Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall, who had represented New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, defeated former Republican U.S. Representative Steve Pearce, who had represented New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, for an open U.S. Senate seat that was vacated by Republican Pete Domenici once it was discovered that he had brain cancer. Former Republican U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, vacated her seat to challenge Pearce in the GOP senatorial primary only to lose the nomination to him. As a result, all three of New Mexico's U.S. House seats were up for grabs, and Democrats captured all three of them. At the state level, Democrats increased their majorities in both houses of the New Mexico Legislature, picking up three seats in both the New Mexico House of Representatives and New Mexico Senate.
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 472,422 | 56.91% | +7.86 | ||
| Republican | 346,832 | 41.78% | −8.06 | ||
| Independent | 5,327 | 0.64% | +0.10 | ||
| Libertarian | 2,428 | 0.29% | −0.02 | ||
| Constitution |
| 1,597 | 0.19% | +0.09 | |
| Green | 1,552 | 0.19% | +0.03 | ||
| Total votes | 830,158 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic win | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Barack Obama Democratic | John McCain Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 171,556 | 60.03% | 110,521 | 38.67% | 3,701 | 1.30% | 61,035 | 21.36% | 285,778 |
| Catron | 664 | 31.44% | 1,398 | 66.19% | 50 | 2.37% | -734 | -34.75% | 2,112 |
| Chaves | 8,197 | 37.07% | 13,651 | 61.74% | 264 | 1.19% | -5,454 | -24.67% | 22,112 |
| Cibola | 5,827 | 64.05% | 3,131 | 34.42% | 139 | 1.53% | 2,696 | 29.63% | 9,097 |
| Colfax | 3,490 | 54.67% | 2,805 | 43.94% | 89 | 1.39% | 685 | 10.73% | 6,384 |
| Curry | 4,670 | 32.35% | 9,599 | 66.48% | 169 | 1.17% | -4,929 | -34.13% | 14,438 |
| De Baca | 359 | 34.39% | 676 | 64.75% | 9 | 0.86% | -317 | -30.36% | 1,044 |
| Dona Ana | 40,282 | 58.14% | 28,068 | 40.51% | 930 | 1.35% | 12,214 | 17.63% | 69,280 |
| Eddy | 7,351 | 36.58% | 12,500 | 62.21% | 242 | 1.21% | -5,149 | -25.63% | 20,093 |
| Grant | 8,142 | 59.19% | 5,406 | 39.30% | 207 | 1.51% | 2,736 | 19.89% | 13,755 |
| Guadalupe | 1,557 | 70.90% | 620 | 28.23% | 19 | 0.87% | 937 | 42.67% | 2,196 |
| Harding | 260 | 41.53% | 358 | 57.19% | 8 | 1.28% | -98 | -15.66% | 626 |
| Hidalgo | 993 | 50.90% | 936 | 47.98% | 22 | 1.12% | 57 | 2.92% | 1,951 |
| Lea | 5,108 | 27.40% | 13,347 | 71.58% | 190 | 1.02% | -8,239 | -44.18% | 18,645 |
| Lincoln | 3,535 | 36.46% | 6,001 | 61.89% | 160 | 1.65% | -2,466 | -25.43% | 9,696 |
| Los Alamos | 5,824 | 52.62% | 5,064 | 45.75% | 181 | 1.63% | 760 | 6.87% | 11,069 |
| Luna | 4,311 | 51.69% | 3,870 | 46.40% | 159 | 1.91% | 441 | 5.29% | 8,340 |
| McKinley | 16,572 | 71.41% | 6,382 | 27.50% | 253 | 1.09% | 10,190 | 43.91% | 23,207 |
| Mora | 2,168 | 78.55% | 569 | 20.62% | 23 | 0.83% | 1,599 | 57.93% | 2,760 |
| Otero | 8,610 | 39.56% | 12,806 | 58.83% | 350 | 1.61% | -4,196 | -19.27% | 21,766 |
| Quay | 1,547 | 38.71% | 2,367 | 59.23% | 82 | 2.06% | -820 | -20.52% | 3,996 |
| Rio Arriba | 12,703 | 74.99% | 4,086 | 24.12% | 151 | 0.89% | 8,617 | 50.87% | 16,940 |
| Roosevelt | 2,303 | 34.27% | 4,311 | 64.15% | 106 | 1.58% | -2,008 | -29.88% | 6,720 |
| Sandoval | 32,669 | 55.72% | 25,193 | 42.97% | 768 | 1.31% | 7,476 | 12.75% | 58,630 |
| San Juan | 18,028 | 38.76% | 27,869 | 59.92% | 614 | 1.32% | -9,841 | -21.16% | 46,511 |
| San Miguel | 10,320 | 79.75% | 2,478 | 19.15% | 143 | 1.10% | 7,842 | 60.60% | 12,941 |
| Santa Fe | 55,567 | 76.94% | 15,807 | 21.89% | 849 | 1.17% | 39,760 | 55.05% | 72,223 |
| Sierra | 2,352 | 42.88% | 3,017 | 55.00% | 116 | 2.12% | -665 | -12.12% | 5,485 |
| Socorro | 4,696 | 59.48% | 3,032 | 38.40% | 167 | 2.12% | 1,664 | 21.08% | 7,895 |
| Taos | 13,816 | 81.82% | 2,866 | 16.97% | 204 | 1.21% | 10,950 | 64.85% | 16,886 |
| Torrance | 3,087 | 44.47% | 3,735 | 53.81% | 119 | 1.72% | -648 | -9.34% | 6,941 |
| Union | 492 | 28.24% | 1,227 | 70.44% | 23 | 1.32% | -735 | -42.20% | 1,742 |
| Valencia | 15,366 | 53.17% | 13,136 | 45.45% | 397 | 1.38% | 2,230 | 7.72% | 28,899 |
| Total | 472,422 | 56.91% | 346,832 | 41.78% | 10,904 | 1.31% | 125,590 | 15.13% | 830,158 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Colfax (largest city: Raton)
- Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
- Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
- Luna (largest city: Deming)
- Sandoval (largest city: Bernalillo)
- Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
By congressional district
[edit]Barack Obama carried 2 of the state's 3 congressional districts, while John McCain just narrowly carried the other congressional district that simultaneously elected a Democrat.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39.64% | 60.07% | Heather Wilson (110th Congress) |
| Martin Heinrich (111th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 49.97% | 48.64% | Steve Pearce (110th Congress) |
| Harry Teague (111th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 37.79% | 61.01% | Tom Udall (110th Congress) |
| Ben R. Luján (111th Congress) |
Electors
[edit]Officially the voters of New Mexico cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico is allocated five electors because it has three congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of five electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all five electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and of the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body; instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All five were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[25]
- Brian Colon
- Annadelle Sanchez
- Tom Buckner
- Christy French
- Alvin Warren
References
[edit]- ^ Cost, Jay; Sean Trende (January 18, 2009). "Election Review, Part 3: The West". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 11, 2009.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics Electoral College". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on January 5, 2021. Retrieved December 19, 2021.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". fec.gov. Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Latino Voters in the 2012 Election" (PDF). April 23, 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 23, 2013. Retrieved November 17, 2021.
- ^ "Hispanics in the 2008 Election: New Mexico". Pew Research Center. February 2, 2008. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
- ^ "Paying Attention to the Native American Vote". PBS.
- ^ "New Mexico - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". elections.nytimes.com. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
- ^ "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved May 11, 2009.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ New Mexico Secretary of State's office Archived November 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
