2012 United States Senate election in Montana
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 County results Tester: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Rehberg: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.9% of the vote and Libertarian candidate Dan Cox received 6.56% of the vote.[1][2]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidate
[edit]- Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor, former state representative and nominee in 1996[3]
- Dennis Teske, farmer[4]
Withdrew
[edit]- Steve Daines, businessman and 2008 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Montana (ran for the U.S. House of Representatives)[5]
Endorsements
[edit]- Conrad Burns, former U.S. Senator from Montana
- National Rifle Association of America
- Gun Owners of America
Results
[edit]The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Denny Rehberg | 105,632 | 76.2 | |
| Republican | Dennis Teske | 33,079 | 23.8 | |
| Total votes | 138,711 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Dan Cox (Libertarian), retired businessman[7]
- Denny Rehberg (Republican), U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and former state representative
- Jon Tester (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator and former state senator
Debates
[edit]Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain.[8] The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.[9]
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2012.
- Complete video of debate, October 20, 2012
Campaign
[edit]Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.
As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.[10]
On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate.[3] Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010,[11] but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines would later be elected in the other U.S. Senate seat two years later.[5]
As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.[10]
The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers.[12] Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust.[13] In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation.[14] The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.[15]
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[16]
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Tester (D) | $11,699,935 | $10,377,126 | $1,334,858 | $0 |
| Denny Rehberg (R) | $8,420,655 | $7,249,285 | $1,171,369 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[17][18] | ||||
Top contributors
[edit]- Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families.[19][20]
| Jon Tester | Contribution | Denny Rehberg | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| League of Conservation Voters | $82,332 | Alliance Resource Partners | $36,500 |
| Visa Inc. | $47,400 | Exxon Mobil | $29,500 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co | $47,000 | Las Vegas Sands | $25,000 |
| Thornton & Naumes | $46,600 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
| WPP Group | $38,350 | Murray Energy | $24,068 |
| Blackstone Group | $34,000 | Devon Energy | $20,400 |
| Girardi & Keese | $30,000 | Arch Coal | $19,000 |
| Pederson Group | $29,500 | Yellowstone Bank | $17,500 |
| Comcast Corp | $28,500 | Marathon Oil | $13,750 |
| First Interstate BancSystem | $28,400 | Koch Industries | $13,500 |
Top industries
[edit]| Jon Tester | Contribution | Denny Rehberg | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/Law firms | $1,084,445 | Oil & Gas | $327,969 |
| Retired | $534,716 | Financial Institutions | $277,474 |
| Lobbyists | $506,931 | Retired | $268,693 |
| Financial Institutions | $438,763 | Leadership PACs | $267,000 |
| Leadership PACs | $345,750 | Mining | $169,318 |
| Commercial Banks | $299,818 | Lobbyists | $150,050 |
| Real Estate | $280,945 | Real Estate | $121,080 |
| Insurance | $211,009 | Misc Finance | $94,655 |
| Misc Finance | $188,750 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $89,338 |
| Health Professionals | $181,483 | Republican/Conservative | $76,855 |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[24] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[25] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Denny Rehberg (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 46% | 48% | — | 6% |
| Mason-Dixon[27] | March 14–16, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ±3.4% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ±2.4% | 45% | 47% | 4% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | February 22, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 47% | 6% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | April 2, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 47% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ±3.2% | 48% | 43% | 9% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | May 2, 2012 | 450 | ±5.0% | 43% | 53% | 2% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | June 18, 2012 | 450 | ±5.0% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[35] | August 20, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 43% | 47% | 5% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ±3.8% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 3% |
| Mason-Dixon[37] | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ±4.0% | 45% | 48% | 1% | 6% |
| MSU[38] | October 9, 2012 | 477 | ±4.6% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ±3.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 48% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling/LCV[41] | October 15–16, 2012 | 806 | ±3.5% | 46% | 44% | 7% | 3% |
| Pharos Research[42] | October 19–21, 2012 | 828 | ±3.4% | 48% | 46% | — | 5% |
| Pharos Research[43] | October 26–28, 2012 | 799 | ±3.5% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | October 29, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 49% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau[45] | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | 4.0% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | 3.4% | 48% | 46% | 4% | 2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Steve Daines (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 48% | 37% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Neil Livingstone (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Marc Racicot (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 42% | 49% | — | 9% |
Results
[edit]Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 236,123 | 48.58% | −0.58% | |
| Republican | Denny Rehberg | 218,051 | 44.86% | −3.43% | |
| Libertarian | Dan Cox | 31,892 | 6.56% | +4.01% | |
| Total votes | 486,066 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Tester | Votes | Rehberg | Votes | Cox | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaverhead | 31.84% | 1,532 | 59.77% | 2,876 | 8.4% | 404 | 4,812 |
| Big Horn | 67.39% | 3,141 | 28.08% | 1,309 | 4.53% | 211 | 4,661 |
| Blaine | 63.88% | 1,834 | 31.24% | 897 | 4.88% | 140 | 2,871 |
| Broadwater | 33.01% | 995 | 57.47% | 1,732 | 9.52% | 287 | 3,014 |
| Carbon | 45.9% | 2,691 | 47.55% | 2,788 | 6.55% | 384 | 5,863 |
| Carter | 15.74% | 125 | 77.58% | 616 | 6.68% | 53 | 794 |
| Cascade | 52.47% | 18,246 | 41.96% | 14,589 | 5.57% | 1,936 | 34,771 |
| Chouteau | 48.19% | 1,374 | 46.33% | 1,321 | 5.47% | 156 | 2,851 |
| Custer | 43.21% | 2,283 | 49.31% | 2,661 | 8.38% | 452 | 5,396 |
| Daniels | 32.6% | 327 | 60.52% | 607 | 6.88% | 69 | 1,003 |
| Dawson | 35.46% | 1,571 | 56.52% | 2,504 | 8.01% | 355 | 4,430 |
| Deer Lodge | 69.55% | 3,122 | 23.37% | 1,049 | 7.08% | 318 | 4,489 |
| Fallon | 29.78% | 422 | 59.28% | 840 | 10.94% | 155 | 1,407 |
| Fergus | 33.94% | 2,063 | 58.12% | 3,533 | 7.95% | 483 | 6,709 |
| Flathead | 37.17% | 16,223 | 55.38% | 24,171 | 7.45% | 3,252 | 43,646 |
| Gallatin | 51.63% | 24,781 | 42.47% | 20,386 | 5.9% | 2,834 | 48,001 |
| Garfield | 14.31% | 101 | 79.04% | 558 | 6.66% | 47 | 708 |
| Glacier | 69.6% | 3,118 | 24.84% | 1,113 | 5.56% | 249 | 4,480 |
| Golden Valley | 36.25% | 174 | 57.5% | 275 | 6.25% | 30 | 480 |
| Granite | 38.53% | 657 | 52.49% | 895 | 8.97% | 153 | 1,705 |
| Hill | 58.93% | 4,060 | 34.27% | 2,361 | 6.81% | 469 | 6,890 |
| Jefferson | 40.92% | 2,685 | 51.65% | 3,389 | 7.42% | 487 | 6,561 |
| Judith Basin | 35.94% | 441 | 57.13% | 701 | 6.93% | 85 | 1,227 |
| Lake | 49.25% | 6,561 | 42.92% | 5,717 | 7.83% | 1,043 | 13,321 |
| Lewis and Clark | 54.34% | 18,189 | 40.17% | 13,446 | 5.49% | 1,839 | 33,474 |
| Liberty | 40.48% | 1,341 | 53.12% | 1,760 | 6.09% | 61 | 1,002 |
| Lincoln | 34.62% | 3,091 | 56.90% | 5,080 | 8.48% | 757 | 8,928 |
| Madison | 33.2% | 1,516 | 58.91% | 2,690 | 7.88% | 360 | 4,566 |
| McCone | 32.9% | 332 | 61.05% | 616 | 6.05% | 61 | 1,009 |
| Meagher | 34.93% | 342 | 55.57% | 544 | 9.5% | 93 | 979 |
| Mineral | 42.66% | 866 | 47.44% | 963 | 9.9% | 201 | 2,030 |
| Missoula | 63.49% | 36,488 | 31.64% | 18,184 | 4.87% | 2,799 | 57,471 |
| Musselshell | 28.58% | 684 | 61.14% | 1,463 | 10.28% | 246 | 2,393 |
| Park | 48.22% | 4,260 | 43.94% | 3,882 | 7.84% | 693 | 8,835 |
| Petroleum | 24.41% | 73 | 67.56% | 202 | 8.03% | 24 | 299 |
| Phillips | 27.2% | 607 | 65.64% | 1,465 | 7.17% | 160 | 2,232 |
| Pondera | 43.53% | 1,187 | 49.69% | 1,355 | 6.78% | 185 | 2,727 |
| Powder River | 23.32% | 239 | 70.15% | 719 | 6.54% | 67 | 1,025 |
| Powell | 41.75% | 1,167 | 51.2% | 1,431 | 7.05% | 197 | 2,795 |
| Prairie | 33.33% | 236 | 59.32% | 420 | 7.34% | 52 | 708 |
| Ravalli | 38.65% | 8,602 | 53.87% | 11,990 | 7.48% | 1,666 | 22,258 |
| Richland | 30.18% | 1,406 | 62.95% | 2,933 | 6.87% | 320 | 4,659 |
| Roosevelt | 61.41% | 2,269 | 33.42% | 1,235 | 5.17% | 191 | 3,695 |
| Rosebud | 48.0% | 1,704 | 44.45% | 1,578 | 7.55% | 268 | 3,550 |
| Sanders | 34.31% | 2,044 | 54.04% | 3,219 | 11.65% | 694 | 5,957 |
| Sheridan | 42.23% | 812 | 51.74% | 995 | 6.03% | 116 | 1,923 |
| Silver Bow | 69.29% | 11,673 | 24.62% | 4,148 | 6.09% | 1,026 | 16,847 |
| Stillwater | 36.66% | 1,732 | 56.84% | 2,684 | 6.52% | 308 | 4,724 |
| Sweet Grass | 31.19% | 661 | 62.67% | 1,328 | 6.13% | 130 | 2,119 |
| Teton | 40.48% | 1,341 | 53.12% | 1,760 | 6.4% | 212 | 3,313 |
| Toole | 34.01% | 721 | 57.03% | 1,209 | 8.96% | 190 | 2,120 |
| Treasure | 33.98% | 157 | 54.55% | 252 | 11.47% | 53 | 462 |
| Valley | 44.98% | 1,749 | 46.91% | 1,824 | 8.1% | 315 | 3,888 |
| Wheatland | 36.79% | 365 | 56.35% | 559 | 6.85% | 68 | 992 |
| Wibaux | 27.39% | 149 | 62.32% | 339 | 10.29% | 56 | 544 |
| Yellowstone | 47.15% | 32,565 | 46.44% | 32,077 | 6.42% | 4,432 | 69,074 |
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)
- Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)
See also
[edit]- 2012 United States Senate elections
- 2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
- 2012 Montana gubernatorial election
References
[edit]- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
- ^ Cohen, Patricia (November 2020). "Montana". The New York Times.
- ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (January 19, 2012). "Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 20, 2012.
- ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (February 3, 2011). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
- ^ "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- ^ "Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. March 8, 2012. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
- ^ Raju, Manu (October 5, 2012). "Senate battle hits Big Sky country". Politico.
- ^ "Debates to feature matchups in House, Senate and governor's races". Billings Gazette. September 26, 2012.
- ^ a b Mike Dennison (July 15, 2011). "Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money". missoulian.com. Retrieved July 25, 2011.
- ^ Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". KTVM-TV. Archived from the original on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
- ^ Gouras, Matt (September 30, 2010). "GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand". Missoulian TV. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
- ^ McAuliff, Michael (November 11, 2011). "Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE)". Huffington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
- ^ Drajem, Mark (October 17, 2011). "EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review". Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
- ^ "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157". United States Senate. October 6, 2011. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
- ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
- ^ Tester Campaign Finances
- ^ Rehberg Campaign Finances
- ^ OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
- ^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 OpenSecrets
- ^ finances by industry
- ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Mason-Dixon Archived September 27, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ MSU
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Public Policy Polling/LCV
- ^ Pharos Research [permanent dead link]
- ^ Pharos Research
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
- ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 5, 2016. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
- ^ "2012 General Election Results By County". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
External links
[edit]- Elections and Government at the Montana Secretary of State
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
- Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites