2024 Portuguese legislative election

2024 Portuguese legislative election

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230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic 116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	10,813,643 0.0%
Turnout	6,476,952 (59.9%) 8.4 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Luís Montenegro Pedro Nuno Santos André Ventura Party PSD PS CH Alliance AD Leader since 28 May 2022[a] 16 December 2023 9 April 2019 Leader's seat Lisbon Aveiro Lisbon Last election 77 seats, 30.7%[b] 120 seats, 41.4% 12 seats, 7.2% Seats won 80 78 50 Seat change 3 42 38 Popular vote 1,867,442[c] 1,812,443 1,169,781 Percentage 28.8% 28.0% 18.1% Swing 1.9 pp 13.4 pp 10.9 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Rui Rocha Mariana Mortágua Paulo Raimundo Party IL BE PCP Alliance CDU Leader since 22 January 2023 28 May 2023 12 November 2022 Leader's seat Braga Lisbon Lisbon Last election 8 seats, 4.9% 5 seats, 4.4% 6 seats, 4.3%[d] Seats won 8 5 4 Seat change 0 0 2 Popular vote 319,677 282,314 205,551 Percentage 4.9% 4.4% 3.2% Swing 0.0 pp 0.0 pp 1.1 pp   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Rui Tavares Teresa Mota[e] Inês Sousa Real Party LIVRE PAN Leader since 6 March 2022 6 June 2021 Leader's seat Lisbon Braga (lost) Lisbon Last election 1 seat, 1.3% 1 seat, 1.6% Seats won 4 1 Seat change 3 0 Popular vote 204,875 126,125 Percentage 3.2% 2.0% Swing 1.9 pp 0.4 pp
Vote winner strength by district Results by constituency
Prime Minister before election António Costa PS Prime Minister after election Luís Montenegro PSD

Snap legislative elections were held on 10 March 2024 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election. The elections were called in November 2023 after Prime Minister António Costa's resignation following an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses.^[1]

No party achieved an absolute majority of seats, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) led by Luís Montenegro winning 80 seats, closely followed by the Socialist Party (PS), which lost the absolute majority it had gained in the 2022 elections, and was reduced to 78 seats. The election also saw the surge of the right-wing populist Chega party as the third-largest party in parliament, more than quadrupling its previous seat count to 50 seats. Turnout in the election was at 59.9 percent, the highest since 2005, and in Portugal alone, turnout rose to 66.2%, the highest rate since 1995.

The leader of the largest party, Luís Montenegro, would go on to form a centre-right minority government ending nearly a decade of rule by the Socialist Party.

The Socialist Party (PS), led by Prime Minister António Costa, won an absolute majority in the 2022 legislative election with 41 percent of the votes and 120 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), got 77 seats and 29 percent of the votes, while the populist party Chega (Enough) gained 12 seats and seven percent. The Liberal Initiative (IL) were able to win eight seats and gather almost five percent of the votes. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved one of their worst results ever with four percent of the votes and six and five seats, respectively. PAN and LIVRE were able to win just one seat each.^[2]

António Costa's third government was sworn in on 30 March 2022. This government was unstable and experienced several scandals and controversies. By mid-2023, the government had seen the resignations of 11 secretaries of state and two ministers.^[3] The biggest scandal involved TAP Air Portugal and a compensation payment to a government member, Alexandra Reis.^[4] This case was followed by a violent incident, in late April 2023, at the Ministry of Infrastructure, between government staff members and an advisor to Minister João Galamba regarding an alleged stolen laptop.^[5] The deployment of the Portuguese Secret Services in this case stirred a clash between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the incumbent president of Portugal, and Prime Minister António Costa concerning the future of Galamba and the government itself.^[6]

On 7 November 2023, the Public Security Police and the Public Prosecutor's office carried out a series of searches at the official residence of the Prime Minister and other ministries, leading to the arrest of the Prime Minister's chief of staff.^[7] Costa was named as a suspect in a corruption case involving the awarding of contracts for the lithium and hydrogen businesses, but denied any wrongdoing.^[8] He met President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the Presidential Palace and announced his resignation shortly after, stating that he would not run for re-election.^[1]

The President heard all parties after Costa's resignation.^[9] The Socialist Party proposed a new cabinet led by President of the Assembly of the Republic Augusto Santos Silva^[10] or Governor of the Bank of Portugal Mário Centeno^[11] that would last until the end of the government's term in 2026, while all opposition parties, except PAN, supported an early election.^[12] The President has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic at their discretion; they are not required to do so when a prime minister resigns.^[13] President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, after meeting with the Council of State, dissolved the assembly and called an early election for 10 March 2024.^[14]

The Prime Minister's resignation was not made official immediately; it was postponed until 8 December 2023, so that the State Budget for 2024 could be approved by parliament.^[15][16] This marked the first time a single party majority government has not completed its full term in democratic Portugal.^{[citation needed]}

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election date must be announced at least 60 days before the election.^[17] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seat constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. In normal circumstances, the next legislative election would, therefore, have taken place no later than 11 October 2026.^[18]

On 9 November 2023, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced he would dissolve the parliament and called an early election for 10 March 2024.^[14] On 15 January 2024, the President signed the decree that officially dissolved Parliament and set the date for the elections.^[19] Campaigning officially began on 25 February and lasted for two weeks.^[20]

In the 2022 elections, the CDS – People's Party was wiped out from Parliament for the first time in 47 years of democracy.^[21] CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos resigned on election night and announced that a leadership ballot would be held.^[22] On 11 February, it was announced that a new leader would be elected in a party congress on 2 and 3 April 2022 held in Guimarães.^[23] MEP Nuno Melo, former MP Nuno Correia da Silva, 2016 leadership candidate Miguel Mattos Chaves and Bruno Filipe Costa announced they would contest the ballot.^{[24][25][26][27]} During the congress, Bruno Filipe Costa and Nuno Correia da Silva dropped out from the race.^[28] Nuno Melo was easily elected as leader with more than 77 percent of the votes. The results were the following:

After the Social Democratic Party's (PSD) defeat in the 2022 legislative election, Rui Rio announced he would resign and not run again for the PSD leadership, calling a leadership election to elect a new leader.^[29] The ballot was held on 28 May 2022.^[30] Luís Montenegro, former PSD parliamentary group leader (2011–2018), and Jorge Moreira da Silva, former Environment minister (2013–2015), were the only candidates on the ballot.^[31] Around 45,000 party members, out of more than 85,000 active members, registered to vote.^[32] Montenegro defeated Moreira da Silva by a landslide, becoming the 19th leader of the party.^[33] The results were as follows:

On 5 November 2022, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) announced that Jerónimo de Sousa, party leader since 2004, was departing from the leadership for health reasons and the demands that the post requires.^[34] The party chose Paulo Raimundo, a party cadre and member since 1994, as new leader^[35] whose nomination was confirmed in a Central Committee meeting on 12 November 2022 by unanimous vote, with one abstention, from Raimundo himself.^[36] The results were the following:

On 23 October 2022, party leader João Cotrim Figueiredo announced he was leaving Liberal Initiative's party leadership and called a leadership election.^[37] Shortly after Cotrim's announcement, an MP Rui Rocha from Braga constituency, stepped forward and announced his intention to run for the leadership.^[38] Two days later, Carla Castro, a Lisbon MP, also presented her candidacy for the leadership.^[39] A few weeks later, the party decided on a date and location for the leadership ballot – the new leader would be elected in a National Convention between 21 and 22 January 2023 in Lisbon.^[40] A third candidate for the leadership, José Cardoso, a critic of Figueiredo's leadership and strategy, announced his candidacy on 2 January 2023.^[41] Around 2,300 party members registered to vote in the leadership convention.^[42] Rui Rocha was elected as the 4th President of the Liberal Initiative with almost 52 percent of the votes.^[43] The results were the following:

People Animals Nature (Pessoas-Animais-Natureza – PAN) held a leadership ballot on 20 May 2023.^[44] Two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Inês Sousa Real and Nelson Silva, MP between 2019 and 2022. Silva accused Sousa Real of leading the party to irrelevance and said that now it's time to "save" and "rebuild" the party.^[45] In a rather tense congress, with strong accusations between both sides,^[46] Inês Sousa Real was re-elected party leader with 73 percent of the votes.^[47] The results were the following:

On 14 February 2023, party coordinator Catarina Martins announced she would not run for another term as party leader.^[48] Her reasons were that in the party very long periods of leadership are not desirable and that the "new political cycle" demanded a change. A party leadership convention was held between 27 and 28 May 2023, in Lisbon.^[49]

After MEP Marisa Matias and caucus leader Pedro Filipe Soares declined to run, MP Mariana Mortágua decided to run for the party leadership.^[50] Her candidacy was confirmed on 27 February 2023.^[51] A list of critics of the then party leadership, led by former MP Pedro Soares [pt], opposed Mortágua in the convention ballot.^[52] On 28 May 2023, Mariana Mortágua was easily elected as new party coordinator with 83 percent of the delegates' votes.^[53] The results were the following:

After the resignation of António Costa as Prime Minister on 7 November 2023, following the Operation Influencer corruption investigation, and his announcement that he would not run again for office, the Socialist Party (PS) held a leadership election to elect a new leader^[54] on 15 and 16 December 2023.^[55] On 9 November 2023, former Minister of Infrastructure and Housing Pedro Nuno Santos announced his candidacy for the party leadership,^[56] while Minister of Internal Administration José Luís Carneiro announced his intention to run on the following day.^[57] On 18 November 2023, Daniel Adrião, a member of the National Commission of PS and candidate in the PS leadership elections of 2016, 2018 and 2021, announced his candidacy.^[58] On 16 December, Pedro Nuno Santos was easily elected with almost 61 percent of the votes, compared with 37 percent for José Luís Carneiro.^[59] The results were the following:

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected for four-year terms. Governments do not require an absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposition MPs is larger than that of its supporters, the opposition still needs to be equal to or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.^[60]

The number of seats assigned to each constituency depends on the district magnitude.^[61] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.^[62]

The distribution of MPs by constituency for the 2024 legislative election is the following:^[63]

Constituency	Number of MPs	Map
Lisbon	48
Porto	40
Braga and Setúbal(+1)	19
Aveiro	16
Leiria	10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém	9
Viseu	8
Madeira	6
Azores, Viana do Castelo(−1) and Vila Real	5
Castelo Branco	4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda	3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe	2

Voters were also able to vote early, which happened on 3 March, one week before election day. Voters had to register between 25 and 29 February 2024 in order to be eligible to cast an early ballot. By the 29 February deadline, 208,007 voters had requested to vote early, a number well below the 2022 figures.^[64] On 3 March, 180,835 voters (86.9 percent of voters that requested) cast an early ballot.^[65]

Parties and/or coalitions that intended to run had until 29 January 2024 to file lists of candidates.^[66] Eighteen parties and/or coalitions filed lists to contest the election. The Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM) contested the election in a coalition called Democratic Alliance (AD). This coalition was on the ballot in mainland Portugal and the Azores. In Madeira, the coalition was only between PSD and CDS–PP, called Madeira First.^[67] PPM ran alone in Madeira.^[68] The Communist Party (PCP) renewed their coalition with the Greens (PEV), Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), as has been the case since 1987. The Earth Party (MPT) and Alliance (A) also contested the election under a coalition called Alternative 21 (A21).^[69]

The table below lists the parties and/or coalitions represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 15th legislature (2022–2024) and that also contested the 2024 elections:

The table below lists the parties and/or coalitions not represented in the Assembly of the Republic and that also ran in the elections.

The issue of government formation after the elections was central during the campaign, with the two major parties arguing over whether they would enable the victor to form a minority government. The Socialist Party (PS) leader Pedro Nuno Santos changed positions regarding the scenario of a Democratic Alliance (AD) minority, with first being against it but, as the official campaign started, expressed his openness to letting the AD govern. AD leader Luís Montenegro, initially against the idea of letting the PS govern, also changed his tone but speculation remained regarding his position.^[84] Healthcare and education were also crucial issues for voters, according to surveys.^[85]

In an interview with Expresso on 8 March, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said that he would do everything in his ability to prevent Chega from gaining power, which drew criticism due to his position's mandate of neutrality.^[86] In a televised address on 9 March, Rebelo de Sousa called for people to vote, citing the risk of economic problems caused by elections in the European Parliament and the United States later in the year, and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.^[87]

Although economic indicators had been improving since 2014 – growth of 2.3 percent in 2023, well above the European average (0.5 percent), an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent and public debt falling below 100 percent of gross domestic product – discontent prevailed in Portugal, particularly due to the lack of response to social issues. The country faced a housing crisis [pt] and soaring rent prices, a deteriorating public health and education system, shortages of teachers and doctors, very low wages and high inflation.^[88]

This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2024 Portuguese legislative election § Graphical summary.[edit]

Polling aggregator	Last update										Lead
2024 legislative election	10 March 2024	28.0 78	28.8 80		18.1 50	4.9 8	4.4 5	3.2 4	2.0 1	3.2 4	0.8
Europe Elects	7 March 2024	28	34		17	6	6	3	1	4	6
PolitPro	7 March 2024	28.2	32.1		16.6	6.1	5.4	3.3	1.8	3.5	3.9
Marktest	6 March 2024	27.0	33.9		16.4	5.8	5.5	3.3	1.5	3.8	6.9
Politico	6 March 2024	28	33		16	6	5	4	1	4	5
Renascença	6 March 2024	27.8	32.3		16.9	5.5	4.6	2.7	1.3	3.7	4.5
2022 legislative election[2]	30 January 2022	41.4 120	29.1 77	1.6 0	7.2 12	4.9 8	4.4 5	4.3 6	1.6 1	1.3 1	12.3

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2022	2024	±	2022	2024	±	2022	2024	±
Total	23.27%	25.21%	1.94 pp	45.66%	51.96%	6.30 pp	51.46%	59.90%	8.44 pp
Sources[101][102]

Turnout was higher in this election, with a record 6.5 million voters casting a ballot, thus surpassing the 1980 record. In Portugal alone, turnout stood at 66.2 percent, an increase of more than eight percent compared with 2022, and the best turnout share since 1995.^[103]

The final results of the election were released late on 20 March, when the counting of overseas ballots that constitute four seats was concluded.^[104]

In the closest legislative election in Portuguese history, the Democratic Alliance narrowly won, gathering 28.8 percent of the votes and winning 80 seats.^[105] The Alliance won all districts in the North Region and recovered their support in strongholds such as the districts of Leiria and Viseu.^[106] During election day, AD issued a warning that many voters were casting ballots for the National Democratic Alternative (ADN) due to confusion surrounding the similar name and abbreviation on ballot papers.^[107] ADN won more than 100,000 votes, with many considering that this confusion between the names may have "stolen" seats from the Democratic Alliance.^[108] The Socialist Party (PS) won 28 percent of the votes and 78 seats. Despite the narrow margin between the Alliance and the Socialists, the PS fell 13 points and lost more than 40 seats compared with the 2022 election.^[105] On election night, leader Pedro Nuno Santos conceded defeat and said that the PS would now lead the opposition.^[109]

Chega made large gains, winning 18 percent of the vote and receiving nearly 1.2 million votes.^[110] The party also won 50 seats and received the most votes in Faro district, the first time since the 1991 legislative election that a third party won a district.^[111] The Liberal Initiative (IL) held on to their eight seats and their vote share from 2022, earning 4.9 percent of the vote; however, the results were below the party's expectations.^[112] The Left Bloc (BE) also performed below expectations by retaining their five seats from 2022 and winning exactly the same vote share in 2022 at 4.4 percent.^[113]

The Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), composed by the Portuguese Communist Party and the Ecologist Party "The Greens", lost seats. The CDU won four seats, a decrease of two compared with 2022, and just 3.2 percent of the votes, their worst nationwide electoral performance to date.^[114] The coalition further lost their historic seat in Beja district; for the first time under democratic rule, it also lost all MPs in the Alentejo region.^[115] LIVRE received almost the same number of votes as the CDU, winning 3.2 percent of the votes, and electing four seats from Lisbon, Porto and Setúbal districts.^[116] People Animals Nature (PAN) held its sole seat, held by leader Inês Sousa Real, and won 2 percent of the votes.

Summary of the 10 March 2024 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties			Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
						2022	2024	±	%	±
		Democratic Alliance (PSD/CDS–PP/PPM)[n]	1,814,002	28.01	1.8	74	77	3	33.48	1.3	1.20
		Madeira First (PSD/CDS–PP)[o]	52,989	0.82	0.1	3	3	0	1.30	0	1.59
		People's Monarchist[p]	451	0.01	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
	Total Democratic Alliance[q]		1,867,442	28.83	1.9	77	80	3	34.78	1.3	1.21
		Socialist	1,812,443	27.98	13.4	120	78	42	33.91	18.3	1.21
		CHEGA	1,169,781	18.06	10.9	12	50	38	21.74	16.5	1.20
		Liberal Initiative	319,877	4.94	0.0	8	8	0	3.48	0	0.70
		Left Bloc	282,314	4.36	0.0	5	5	0	2.17	0	0.50
		Unitary Democratic Coalition	205,551	3.17	1.1	6	4	2	1.74	0.9	0.55
		LIVRE	204,875	3.16	1.9	1	4	3	1.74	1.3	0.55
		People–Animals–Nature	126,125	1.95	0.4	1	1	0	0.43	0	0.22
		National Democratic Alternative	102,134	1.58	1.4	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		React, Include, Recycle	26,092	0.40	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		Together for the People	19,145	0.30	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		New Right	16,456	0.25	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
		Portuguese Workers' Communist	15,491	0.24	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		Volt Portugal	11,854	0.18	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		Rise Up	6,030	0.09	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		Alternative 21 (Earth Party/Alliance)	4,265	0.07	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		Labour	2,435	0.04	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		We, the Citizens!	2,399	0.04	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0	0.0
		Socialist Alternative Movement[83][r]	0	0.00	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid			6,194,709	95.64	1.8	230	230	0	100.00	0	—
Blank ballots			89,847	1.39	0.3
Invalid ballots			192,396	2.97	1.5
Total			6,476,952	100.00
Registered voters/turnout			10,813,643	59.90	8.4
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições[117]

• 
  2024 election by municipality: AD/MF (orange), PS (pink), CH (blue)

Following the release of the results, Luis Montenegro claimed victory on behalf of AD early on 11 March, while Pedro Nuno Santos conceded defeat on behalf of his party.^[118][119] Santos discounted the prospect of forming a left-leaning coalition.^[120] Minister of Finance Fernando Medina, who had been considered as a possible replacement as leader of PS, said that the defeat was due to the entire party and not Santos' leadership.^[120] Chega's André Ventura said that the results showed that the "two-party system in Portugal is finished."^[121] His party was congratulated by representatives of European right-wing populist parties for its performance.^[122] Montenegro reiterated that he would not come to a political agreement with Chega.^[123] President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who was a member of PSD prior to his election, met with political parties between 14 March and 20 March, told Expresso on 8 March that he would do what he could to prevent Chega from gaining power. His remarks attracted criticism because the country's president is mandated to remain neutral.^[124]

Liberal Initiative leader Rui Rocha said that it was the responsibility of other parties to lead the formation of a government, but that his party would contribute as long as any proposals excluded Chega.^[125] CDU leader Paulo Raimundo blamed what he saw as misgovernance by the PS for the right-wing gains in the election,^[126] while PAN spokesperson Inês Sousa Real blamed President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in part for Chega's advances.^[127] Mariana Mortágua of the Left Bloc said that her party would either be a part of any left-leaning coalition or oppose any right-leaning government,^[128] and LIVRE leader Rui Tavares expressed satisfaction that his party grew to four seats and could form a parliamentary group for the first time.^[129]

Pedro Nuno Santos said in his concession speech that the PS would not vote in favour of a motion of rejection of the AD government, although he also said that "AD should not count on the support of PS to govern", implying that his party would vote against the AD government's State Budgets.^[120] André Ventura said that Chega would vote against the State Budgets unless AD negotiated with the party.^[130]

On 21 March, Luis Montenegro was formally asked by President Rebelo de Sousa to form a minority government^[131] following the latter's consultations with party leaders.^[132] The final, certified election results were published in the Portuguese official journal, Diário da República, on 23 March 2024.^[133] The new government was then presented and approved by President Rebelo de Sousa on 28 March^[134][135] and took office on 2 April.^[136]

The lack of a workable majority means that the AD minority government is forced to negotiate with Opposition parties to pass major legislation, including the 2025 state budget.^[137] The Government decided to start negotiations on the budget with the Socialist Party (PS)^[138] but the two were at odds regarding corporate tax cuts and the "Youth IRS" scheme, which provided an income tax rate cut for young people under the age of 35. The Government refused to drop these two policies, while PS said that if they remain in the budget, the party would vote against.^[139] President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned that a lack of a deal would lead to snap legislative elections,^[140] and admitted he was indeed putting pressure on both the major parties to reach some kind of deal.^[141]

Luís Montenegro ultimately dropped several parts of his government's Youth IRS scheme and corporate tax cuts proposals and adapted them to PS policies, calling it an "irrecusable proposal" for the Socialists.^[142] Pedro Nuno Santos recognized the concessions made by the government, but pressed for more conditions on corporate tax cuts, mainly on their timing.^[143] Montenegro rejected these last conditions made by PS, but said he was "confident" in the budget being approved by Parliament.^[144] A week later, on 17 October 2024, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced that the Socialist Party would abstain in the budget vote, thus ensuring its approval with the votes of the AD coalition. Though his conditions were not met, Santos justified the decision with the desire to avoid a snap election less than a year after the previous one, but stressed that the government is now "isolated" and "absolutely dependent" on the opposition.^[145] On 31 October, Parliament passed the budget in its first general reading by a 80-72 vote, with the 78 PS members abstaining. The final vote is expected for 29 November.^[146]

Wikimedia Commons has media related to 2024 Portuguese legislative election.

• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry
• Portuguese Electoral Commission
• ERC – Official publication of polls
• Average of polls and seat simulator