2024 United States presidential election in Virginia
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Elections in Virginia |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last Republican to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. Formerly a Republican stronghold and a Southern state mostly in the Bible Belt, Democratic strength in the state has greatly increased over the last two decades and it is now considered a moderately blue state at the federal level. That is primarily due to the rapid growth and diversification of the Northern Virginia region, which includes some of Washington, DC's largest suburbs. The downstate metro areas of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond are also major voting blocs for Democrats in Virginia. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first presidential Democrat to do so by double digits since landslide victor FDR in 1944.
Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, mainly due to the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested.[1][2] Nonetheless, most analysts consider Democrats the favorites to hold the Old Dominion.[3] Some polls have even labelled Virginia as a tossup state in the election cycle, and the GOP has placed a number of campaign offices throughout the Commonwealth in an attempt to continue recent momentum.
Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[4]
Primary elections[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 317,329 | 88.51% | 99 | 99 | |
Marianne Williamson | 28,599 | 7.98% | 0 | 0 | |
Dean Phillips | 12,586 | 3.51% | 0 | 0 | |
Total: | 358,514 | 100.00% | 99 | 19 | 118 |
Source: [5] |
Republican primary[edit]
The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lied in the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 440,416 | 62.99% | 39 | 3 | 42 |
Nikki Haley | 244,586 | 34.98% | 6 | 6 | |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,494 | 1.07% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,384 | 0.48% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,503 | 0.36% | |||
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 853 | 0.12% | |||
Total: | 699,236 | 100.00% | 45 | 3 | 48 |
Source: [6] |
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[7] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
Inside Elections[8] | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Lean D | June 1, 2024 |
CNalysis[11] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[12] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[13] | Lean D | June 12, 2024 |
538[14] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[15] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
Roanoke College | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Mason-Dixon | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Roanoke College | November 12–20, 2023 | 686 (A) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Research America Inc.[C] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 37% | 26% |
Roanoke College | August 6–15, 2023 | 702 (A) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | 17% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Roanoke College | May 14–23, 2023 | 678 (A) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Roanoke College | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
Roanoke College | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 10% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R) | June 11–12, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 11% |
Mason-Dixon | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 14% | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 40% | 39% | 7% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Manchin Independent | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 37% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Nikki Haley Republican | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Ron DeSantis Republican | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Research America Inc.[C] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Roanoke College | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 48% | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Glenn Youngkin Republican | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research America Inc.[C] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 34% | 29% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 37% | 44% | 19% |
Roanoke College | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 55% | 6% |
Debate[edit]
The second presidential debate for the general election is scheduled to be held at Virginia State University in Petersburg on October 1, 2024, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Whether either major party nominee will attend the debates has been called into question due to conflicts with the commission regarding the 2020 debates.[16]
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Virginia
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20March%202023%20Topline.pdf
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Virginia Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.