2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election

2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election
← 2010 June 5, 2012 2014 →
Turnout57.8% (Increase 8.1%)
 
Nominee Scott Walker Tom Barrett
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,335,585 1,164,480
Percentage 53.08% 46.28%
Walker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Barrett:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
Governor before election

Scott Walker
Republican

Elected Governor

Scott Walker
Republican

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The 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election was a special election to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Wisconsin. It resulted in voters re-electing incumbent Republican governor Scott Walker over the Democratic candidate Tom Barrett by a larger margin than in 2010 when Walker also faced Barrett. Recall organizers opposed Walker's agenda, particularly his limiting of collective bargaining rights for state employees[1] and they collected over 900,000 signatures to initiate the recall election process.[1] There was also a recall for Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. She won her race, defeating Democrat Mahlon Mitchell, making her the first lieutenant governor to run in and survive a recall.[2]

The Democratic primaries took place on May 8. The recall elections were held June 5[3] with Walker defeating Barrett. Walker was thus the first U.S. governor to continue in office after facing a recall election.[4]

Four state senate recall elections took place the same day as the gubernatorial recall elections, resulting in two wins by Republican incumbents, one open seat win by a Republican, and one win by a Democratic challenger, giving Democrats control of the state Senate for the remainder of the year.[5]

The recall election was just the third gubernatorial recall election in U.S. history and the first one in which the incumbent was not defeated.[6] The other recall elections were the 1921 North Dakota gubernatorial recall election (which successfully recalled Lynn Frazier), the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election (which successfully recalled Gray Davis). Since 2012, the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election has become the second recall election to fail to defeat the incumbent.

As of 2024, this is the last governor election in which the Republican candidate won the counties of Eau Claire, Sauk, Green, and Vernon.

Voter turnout in the election was 57.8 percent, the highest for a gubernatorial election not on a presidential ballot in Wisconsin history up to that point.[7] The election was widely covered on national television.

Background

[edit]

Pre-certification recall campaign

[edit]
Protests in the Capitol, February 14, 2012
Recall organizers collecting petition signatures from motorists in Oak Creek, Wisconsin in November 2011
Petition signatures being collected in Madison, Wisconsin in November 2011

Incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker faced a recall effort beginning in November 2011. After the contentious collective bargaining dispute,[8] Walker's disapproval ratings varied between 50 and 51% while his approval ratings varied between 47% and 49% in 2011.[9][10]

Wisconsin law made Walker ineligible for recall until at least January 3, 2012, one year after he first took office, and the Wisconsin Democratic Party called it a "priority" to remove him from office.[11] In the first half of 2011, Walker raised more than $2,500,000 from supporters.[12][13] Walker raised $5.1 million in the second half of 2011 to battle his recall.[14]

In less than half of the allotted time (60 days) to collect signatures, recall organizers report collecting more than 500,000 signatures, leaving roughly one month left to collect the remaining 40,000 signatures needed to force a recall vote. On January 17, 2012, United Wisconsin, the coalition that spearheaded the recall effort, along with the Democratic Party, said that one million signatures were collected, which far exceeded the 540,208 needed, and amounted to 23 percent of the state's eligible voters, 46 percent of the total votes cast in the 2010 gubernatorial election and just shy of the 1.1 million votes earned by Walker.[15]

On January 25, 2012, a poll released by the Marquette University Law School indicated that Walker could win a recall election against potential candidates Tom Barrett, Kathleen Falk, David Obey or Tim Cullen.[16][17] This compared to a poll released by Public Policy Polling in October 2011 that also predicted Walker would win a recall election against Barrett, Falk, Peter Barca, Steve Kagen or Ron Kind. The poll also showed that more people opposed (49%) than supported (48%) the recall effort.[18]

In February 2012, Walker's campaign made an additional request for more time for the petition signatures to be verified, stating that between 10 and 20% of the signatures reviewed to that point should not be counted. Democrats argued that even if 20% of the signatures were not counted there were still 300,000 more than the required number needed to initiate the recall. Democratic Party spokesman Graeme Zielinski argued Walker was just "delaying the inevitable." Additionally, in the period while signatures were being verified Barrett and Walker were able to collect unlimited campaign donations because normal campaign fundraising limits do not apply until an election is ordered.[19] On February 17, 2012, Dane County judge Richard Niess, who also signed the petition, denied Walker's request for additional time.[20]

In March Milwaukee city officials asked Milwaukee Public Schools to contribute nearly $10 million more to the pension plan because of financial market downturns. The teachers' union, school board and the superintendent asked the legislature for the opportunity to negotiate to reduce costs.[21] Milwaukee schools didn't take part in a 90-day window that had since closed, which allowed unions and municipal employees to make contract adjustments. The Assembly and Senate agreed to allow Milwaukee schools to reopen negotiations for compensation or fringe-benefit concessions without nullifying existing union contracts. The measure giving them 90 days passed the Assembly and Senate. Governor Scott Walker supported the measure. Other teachers' unions asked Milwaukee to withdraw its request, saying it would give Walker a political advantage in the recall election.[22]

Certification

[edit]

On March 29, 2012, the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board released its final signature counts for the Walker recall petition. The GAB reported that 931,053 signatures were officially turned in, although the proponents had stated that approximately one million signatures were collected. Of that number, 26,114 were struck by GAB staff for various reasons and an additional 4,001 duplicates were struck. The final total certified by the GAB was 900,938 signatures.[23]

Controversies

[edit]

Twenty-nine circuit court judges in Wisconsin signed recall petitions against Gov. Walker, according to a Gannett Wisconsin Media analysis.[24] Among the signers was Dane County Judge David Flanagan, who was scrutinized after issuing a temporary restraining order March 6 against a Walker-backed voter ID law without disclosing his support of the recall.[25] None of the state's sixteen appeals court judges or seven Supreme Court justices signed the recall petition. The state Supreme Court issued an advisory opinion in 2001 saying judges are allowed to sign nominating petitions, as long as the petition language only supports putting the candidate on the ballot and does not imply an endorsement.[24] The Landmark Legal Foundation requested an investigation to the Wisconsin Judicial Commission regarding allegations of misconduct by the judges in question.[citation needed]

It was later learned that 25 journalists at Gannett had also signed the recall petition. The newspaper group revealed the signatures in the interest of being as open as possible. Genia Lovett, representative for the organization, stated that journalists have a right to hold opinions, but must protect the credibility of their respective news organizations.[26]

Other media organizations had staff who signed the recall petition.[27] Rob Starbuck, the morning news anchor for Madison, Wisconsin, television station WISC-TV, signed the Walker recall petition. The station stated that the signing was in violation of the station's policy for newsroom employees. Television stations WISN, WTMJ, WITI, WDJT and radio station WTMJ in Milwaukee discovered that some staff members signed petitions to recall Walker. Some employees at WTMJ claimed signing the recall petition was not a political act, but rather, similar to casting a vote. WTMJ stated it did not agree and indicated they would take measures to make sure their reporting was fair and balanced, and to ensure no future similar controversies. The WITI television journalist who had signed the petition was reassigned and prohibited from covering Walker-related stories.[28][29]

The cost of the recall election had also drawn criticism. An estimate provided by the state Government Accountability Board showed a cost of $9 million for a statewide election. Since a primary election was also conducted for this race, Representative Robin Vos estimated the cost would be double, around $18 million.[30]

Results of the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary on May 8, 2012. Red counties had more votes for Walker than all Democrats combined. Blue counties had more votes for all Democrats combined than Walker.

Costs and spending

[edit]

The recall elections were the most expensive elections in Wisconsin history.[31] According to the advocacy group Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, candidates and outside groups spent more than $80 million in the governor's recall race. This compares to $37.4 million spent on the 2010 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.[32]

According to USA Today, "More than $62 million was spent by the candidates and outside groups. Much of the $30 million raised by Walker came from outside the state. Barrett ... spent about $4 million; most of his donors live in Wisconsin."[33] Barrett also benefited from spending by labor unions throughout the recall, estimated at another $20 million. [citation needed] Kathleen Falk, who was defeated by Barrett in the Democratic primary raised about $5.2 million from public-sector unions inside and outside the state. The cost of the recall elections for the governor and lieutenant governor to Wisconsin taxpayers was $18 million.[32]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Scott Walker

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Labor unions

  • Milwaukee Police Association[54]
  • Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association[54]

Individuals

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Walker (incumbent) 626,962 96.88%
Republican Arthur Kohl-Riggs 19,939 3.08%
Republican Patrick J. O'Brien (write-in) 17 0.00%
Republican Scattering 204 0.03%
Total votes 647,122 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]
Barrett celebrating his May 8th victory in the Democratic primary

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Tom Barrett
Kathleen Falk

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tom
Barrett 		Kathleen
Falk 		Doug
La Follette 		Kathleen
Vinehout 		Undecided
Marquette University[94] April 26–29, 2012 451 ± 4% 48% 21% 8% 6% 19%
Public Policy Polling[95] April 13–15, 2012 810 ± 3.4% 38% 24% 9% 6% 22%
Marquette University[96] March 22–25, 2012 373 ± 5.1% — 54% 15% 12% 19%
36% 29% 8% 8% 18%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 425 45% 18% 14% 6% 17%
— 41% 23% 13% 22%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
Barrett
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
Falk
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
Democratic gubernatorial primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Barrett 390,191 58.10%
Democratic Kathleen Falk 229,236 34.13%
Democratic Kathleen Vinehout 26,967 4.02%
Democratic Douglas La Follette 19,497 2.90%
Democratic Gladys Huber 4,847 0.72%
Democratic Scattering 864 0.13%
Total votes 671,602 100.00%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

In April the Milwaukee Police Association and Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association unions endorsed Governor Walker in the recall election.[100] After Barrett won the Democratic primary, Walker stated, "As Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett enters the general election in his soon to be third statewide losing campaign, he will surely find that his record of raising taxes and promises to continue to do so will not resonate with voters."[101] After his primary victory Barrett said, "We cannot fix Wisconsin with Walker as governor, this election is not about fighting past battles, it is about moving forward together to create jobs and get our economy moving again."[102]

Debates

[edit]
Barrett (left) and Walker (right) debating on May 31

Polls

[edit]
Key
DV Decided voters
LV Likely voters
RV Registered voters
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Tom
Barrett (D) 		Other Undecided
We Ask America[103] June 3, 2012 1,570 LV ± 2.5% 54% 42% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[104] June 2–3, 2012 1,226 LV ± 2.8% 50% 47% — 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[105] May 30 – June 2, 2012 507 DV ± 4.4% 53% 47% — —
Marquette University[106] May 23–26, 2012 600 LV ± 4.1% 52% 45% — 3%
We Ask America[107] May 23, 2012 1,409 LV ± 2.61% 54% 42% — 4%
St. Norbert College[108] May 17–22, 2012 406 LV ± 5% 50% 45% — 5%
Reason-Rupe[109] May 14–18, 2012 609 LV ± 4% 50% 42% — 6%
We Ask America[110] May 13, 2012 1,219 LV ± 2.81% 52% 43% — 5%
Public Policy Polling[111] May 11–13, 2012 833 LV ± 3.4% 50% 45% 2% 3%
Marquette University[112] May 9–12, 2012 600 LV ± 4.1% 50% 44% — 3%
Rasmussen Reports[113] May 9, 2012 500 LV ± 4.5% 50% 45% 2% 2%
Marquette University[94] April 26–29, 2012 705 RV ± 4% 46% 47% 3% 4%
628 LV 47% 46% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling[95] April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ± 2.9% 50% 45% 2% 3%
Marquette University[96] March 22–25, 2012 707 ± 3.7% 47% 45% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 46% 49% — 5%
Marquette University[114] January 19–22, 2012 701 ± 3.7% 50% 44% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 48% 46% — 6%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Generic Democrat Other Undecided
Marist[116] March 26–27, 2012 2,792 ± 1.9% 46% 48% — 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Kathleen
Falk (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette University[94] April 26–29, 2012 705 ± 4% 49% 42% 6% 3%
Public Policy Polling[95] April 13–15, 2012 1136 ± 2.9% 50% 43% 3% 3%
Marquette University[96] March 22–25, 2012 707 ± 3.7% 49% 45% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 47% 48% — 5%
Marquette University[114] January 19–22, 2012 701 ± 3.7% 49% 42% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 49% 41% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Doug
La Follette (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette University[94] April 26–29, 2012 705 ± 4% 49% 40% 7% 4%
Public Policy Polling[95] April 13–15, 2012 1136 ± 2.9% 51% 40% 3% 6%
Marquette University[96] March 22–25, 2012 707 ± 3.7% 49% 42% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 46% 45% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Kathleen
Vinehout (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette University[94] April 26–29, 2012 705 ± 4% 49% 40% 6% 5%
Public Policy Polling[95] April 13–15, 2012 1136 ± 2.9% 50% 38% 5% 7%
Marquette University[96] March 22–25, 2012 707 ± 3.7% 49% 41% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 46% 44% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Peter
Barca (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 48% 46% — 7%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 48% 42% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Tim
Cullen (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette University[114] January 19–22, 2012 701 ± 3.7% 50% 40% 3% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Jon
Erpenbach (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 47% 44% — 9%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 47% 40% — 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 45% 52% — 4%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 46% 49% — 5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 47% 39% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 45% 46% — 9%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 47% 41% — 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Walker (R) 		David
Obey (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[97] February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 47% 45% — 7%
Marquette University[114] January 19–22, 2012 701 ± 3.7% 49% 43% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling[115] October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 47% 42% — 10%

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[117] Lean R May 29, 2012

Results

[edit]
2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election[118]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Scott Walker (incumbent) 1,335,585 53.08% +0.84%
Democratic Tom Barrett 1,164,480 46.28% −0.20%
Independent Hari Trivedi 14,463 0.57%
Scattering 1,537 0.06%
Majority 171,105 6.80%
Total votes 2,516,065 100.00%
Republican hold Swing +1.03%

By county

[edit]
County[118] Scott Walker
Republican 		Tom Barrett
Democratic 		Hari Trivedi
Independent 		Scattering
Write-in 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Adams 4,497 54.44% 3,658 44.29% 97 1.17% 8 0.10% 839 10.16% 8,260
Ashland 2,598 38.05% 4,174 61.14% 50 0.73% 5 0.07% -1,576 -23.08% 6,827
Barron 10,420 59.26% 7,015 39.89% 136 0.77% 13 0.07% 3,405 19.36% 17,584
Bayfield 3,269 39.79% 4,889 59.51% 55 0.67% 3 0.04% -1,620 -19.72% 8,216
Brown 61,969 59.65% 41,238 39.69% 619 0.60% 67 0.06% 20,731 19.95% 103,893
Buffalo 3,403 60.78% 2,148 38.36% 44 0.79% 4 0.07% 1,255 22.41% 5,599
Burnett 3,998 60.80% 2,536 38.56% 40 0.61% 2 0.03% 1,462 22.23% 6,576
Calumet 15,004 66.28% 7,515 33.20% 107 0.47% 12 0.05% 7,489 33.08% 22,638
Chippewa 14,877 58.21% 10,419 40.77% 244 0.95% 16 0.06% 4,458 17.44% 25,556
Clark 8,133 68.63% 3,618 30.53% 86 0.73% 14 0.12% 4,515 38.10% 11,851
Columbia 12,912 49.34% 13,070 49.94% 161 0.62% 29 0.11% -158 -0.60% 26,172
Crawford 3,357 51.00% 3,160 48.01% 61 0.93% 4 0.06% 197 2.99% 6,582
Dane 77,595 30.38% 176,407 69.07% 1,239 0.49% 175 0.07% -98,812 -38.69% 255,416
Dodge 24,851 63.60% 13,958 35.72% 242 0.62% 20 0.05% 10,893 27.88% 39,071
Door 8,401 56.80% 6,308 42.65% 75 0.51% 7 0.05% 2,093 14.15% 14,791
Douglas 6,374 35.02% 11,711 64.35% 106 0.58% 8 0.04% -5,337 -29.33% 18,199
Dunn 8,417 53.84% 7,099 45.41% 114 0.73% 3 0.02% 1,318 8.43% 15,633
Eau Claire 20,740 49.75% 20,595 49.41% 325 0.78% 25 0.06% 145 0.35% 41,685
Florence 1,338 64.76% 717 34.70% 10 0.48% 1 0.05% 621 30.06% 2,066
Fond du Lac 29,060 63.89% 16,105 35.41% 309 0.68% 9 0.02% 12,955 28.48% 45,483
Forest 2,180 58.76% 1,485 40.03% 44 1.19% 1 0.03% 695 18.73% 3,710
Grant 9,498 51.97% 8,623 47.18% 137 0.75% 17 0.09% 875 4.79% 18,275
Green 8,407 51.02% 7,981 48.43% 71 0.43% 19 0.12% 426 2.59% 16,478
Green Lake 5,800 68.84% 2,564 30.43% 54 0.64% 7 0.08% 3,236 38.41% 8,425
Iowa 4,957 46.33% 5,660 52.90% 77 0.72% 5 0.05% -703 -6.57% 10,699
Iron 1,613 55.72% 1,267 43.77% 14 0.48% 1 0.03% 346 11.95% 2,895
Jackson 4,074 53.55% 3,466 45.56% 62 0.81% 6 0.08% 608 7.99% 7,608
Jefferson 22,475 59.97% 14,698 39.22% 274 0.73% 31 0.08% 7,777 20.75% 37,478
Juneau 5,429 55.66% 4,225 43.32% 83 0.85% 16 0.16% 1,204 12.34% 9,753
Kenosha 28,935 49.07% 29,638 50.27% 349 0.59% 39 0.07% -703 -1.19% 58,961
Kewaunee 6,108 64.01% 3,388 35.51% 42 0.44% 4 0.04% 2,720 28.51% 9,542
La Crosse 22,608 47.43% 24,651 51.72% 382 0.80% 22 0.05% -2,043 -4.29% 47,663
Lafayette 3,887 56.68% 2,923 42.62% 46 0.67% 2 0.03% 964 14.06% 6,858
Langlade 5,621 65.43% 2,898 33.73% 71 0.83% 1 0.01% 2,723 31.70% 8,591
Lincoln 7,201 56.86% 5,351 42.25% 106 0.84% 6 0.05% 1,850 14.61% 12,664
Manitowoc 23,085 64.02% 12,682 35.17% 268 0.74% 26 0.07% 10,403 28.85% 36,061
Marathon 36,352 62.03% 21,809 37.22% 398 0.68% 42 0.07% 14,543 24.82% 58,601
Marinette 10,267 61.84% 6,242 37.60% 90 0.54% 4 0.02% 4,025 24.24% 16,603
Marquette 4,102 59.23% 2,764 39.91% 55 0.79% 5 0.07% 1,338 19.32% 6,926
Menominee 208 26.46% 575 73.16% 3 0.38% 0 0.00% -367 -46.69% 786
Milwaukee 143,455 36.21% 250,476 63.22% 1,935 0.49% 317 0.08% -107,021 -27.01% 396,183
Monroe 9,064 59.14% 6,093 39.76% 155 1.01% 14 0.09% 2,971 19.39% 15,326
Oconto 11,049 65.24% 5,782 34.14% 102 0.60% 4 0.02% 5,267 31.10% 16,937
Oneida 10,433 58.08% 7,365 41.00% 147 0.82% 17 0.09% 3,068 17.08% 17,962
Outagamie 47,840 61.28% 29,714 38.06% 466 0.60% 42 0.05% 18,126 23.22% 78,062
Ozaukee 34,303 70.64% 14,095 29.03% 141 0.29% 21 0.04% 20,208 41.61% 48,560
Pepin 1,849 59.99% 1,216 39.45% 17 0.55% 0 0.00% 633 20.54% 3,082
Pierce 8,317 54.99% 6,744 44.59% 59 0.39% 4 0.03% 1,573 10.40% 15,124
Polk 10,133 60.18% 6,593 39.15% 106 0.63% 7 0.04% 3,540 21.02% 16,839
Portage 14,846 48.23% 15,672 50.91% 242 0.79% 22 0.07% -826 -2.68% 30,782
Price 4,083 59.95% 2,651 38.92% 73 1.07% 4 0.06% 1,432 21.02% 6,811
Racine 45,526 52.72% 40,287 46.65% 509 0.59% 29 0.03% 5,239 6.07% 86,351
Richland 3,895 53.74% 3,296 45.47% 53 0.73% 4 0.06% 599 8.26% 7,248
Rock 27,498 43.40% 35,316 55.74% 475 0.75% 69 0.11% -7,818 -12.34% 63,358
Rusk 3,722 62.51% 2,167 36.40% 60 1.01% 5 0.08% 1,555 26.12% 5,954
Sauk 13,648 51.21% 12,815 48.09% 168 0.63% 18 0.07% 833 3.13% 26,649
Sawyer 3,999 56.44% 3,038 42.88% 45 0.64% 3 0.04% 961 13.56% 7,085
Shawano 11,201 66.11% 5,646 33.33% 88 0.52% 7 0.04% 5,555 32.79% 16,942
Sheboygan 34,047 64.30% 18,612 35.15% 279 0.53% 15 0.03% 15,435 29.15% 52,953
St. Croix 20,894 61.08% 13,177 38.52% 124 0.36% 12 0.04% 7,717 22.56% 34,207
Taylor 5,751 71.60% 2,201 27.40% 76 0.95% 4 0.05% 3,550 44.20% 8,032
Trempealeau 6,266 57.01% 4,634 42.16% 88 0.80% 4 0.04% 1,632 14.85% 10,992
Vernon 6,352 51.97% 5,762 47.14% 100 0.82% 9 0.07% 590 4.83% 12,223
Vilas 7,300 63.29% 4,154 36.02% 72 0.62% 8 0.07% 3,146 27.28% 11,534
Walworth 26,221 64.28% 14,346 35.17% 202 0.50% 21 0.05% 11,875 29.11% 40,790
Washburn 4,278 56.96% 3,156 42.02% 59 0.79% 17 0.23% 1,122 14.94% 7,510
Washington 52,306 75.60% 16,634 24.04% 246 0.36% 0 0.00% 35,672 51.56% 69,186
Waukesha 154,316 72.34% 58,234 27.30% 706 0.33% 76 0.04% 96,082 45.04% 213,332
Waupaca 14,094 64.65% 7,564 34.70% 128 0.59% 13 0.06% 6,530 29.96% 21,799
Waushara 6,463 62.80% 3,754 36.47% 69 0.67% 6 0.06% 2,709 26.32% 10,292
Winnebago 39,881 55.96% 30,885 43.33% 446 0.63% 60 0.08% 8,996 12.62% 71,272
Wood 18,535 57.90% 13,171 41.14% 281 0.88% 26 0.08% 5,364 16.76% 32,013
Total 1,335,585 53.08% 1,164,480 46.28% 14,463 0.57% 1,537 0.06% 171,105 6.80% 2,516,065
A county map of Wisconsin comparing Scott Walker's margins of victory in 2012 to the results in 2010. Walker did better in northern, central, and western Wisconsin, while Barrett did better in southeast Wisconsin.
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

[edit]

Despite the protests, which followed shortly after Walker's inauguration, Walker's margin of victory in the recall election increased by 1 percentage point compared to the previous election (6.8% vs 5.8%). Approximately 350,000 more people voted in the recall election than in the 2010 election (2.5 million vs 2.15 million), making voter turnout in the recall 57.8%, the highest for a Wisconsin gubernatorial election not on a presidential ballot. The Republican bastions of Ozaukee, Waukesha, and Washington had the highest turnouts in the state, at 74%, 72%, and 70% respectively. The Democratic bastion of Dane was not far behind, at 67% voter turnout. Menominee had the lowest turnout in the state, with only 28% voter turnout. Walker won 60 counties in the recall election, compared to 59 in 2010. 3 counties flipped from Walker to Barrett in the recall election (Colombia, Kenosha, and La Crosse), while 4 counties flipped from Barrett to Walker in the recall election (Crawford, Eau Claire, Green, and Trempealeau). Walker's margin of victory increased in 54 counties, while it decreased in 18 counties. Walker did better in most of northern Wisconsin, while Barrett did better in southeast Wisconsin and the most northern counties in the state. Twelve counties (Buffalo, Calumet, Clark, Door, Forest, Kewaunee, Outagamie, Pepin, Price, Rusk, Taylor, and Trempealeau) had swings towards Walker by six points or more compared to the last election, while six counties (Columbia, Dodge, Douglas, Kenosha, Racine, and Rock) had swings towards Barrett by two points or more. The Democratic strongholds of Dane County and Milwaukee County went more to Barrett in the recall election, while the Republican strongholds of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington went more Walker.

Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted the similarities between the 2010 and 2012 elections while looking at the exit poll numbers.[119]

Aftermath

[edit]

2014 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling

[edit]

On July 31, 2014, Scott Bauer reported for the Associated Press:

The Wisconsin Supreme Court on Thursday [July 31, 2014] upheld the 2011 law that effectively ended collective bargaining for most [Wisconsin] public workers, sparked massive protests and led to Republican Gov. Scott Walker's recall election and rise to national prominence. The 5-2 ruling upholds Walker's signature policy achievement in its entirety and is a major victory for the potential 2016 GOP presidential candidate, who is seeking re-election this year. The ruling also marks the end of the three-year legal fight over the law, which prohibits public-employee unions from collectively bargaining for anything beyond wage increases based on inflation. A federal appeals court twice upheld the law as constitutional. "No matter the limitations or 'burdens' a legislative enactment places on the collective-bargaining process, collective bargaining remains a creation of legislative grace and not constitutional obligation", Justice Michael Gableman wrote.[120]

Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson and Justice Ann Walsh Bradley dissented from the ruling, arguing the law unconstitutionally infringes on protected rights.

Investigation of alleged illegal campaign coordination

[edit]

In August 2012, the first investigation, which had been launched by John Chisholm, Milwaukee County District Attorney, a Democrat, into missing funds, was rolled into a second John Doe probe based on a theory that Governor Walker's campaign had illegally coordinated with conservative groups engaged in issue advocacy during the recall elections.[121] The initial John Doe judge, now retired Kenosha County Circuit Judge Barbara A. Kluka, overseeing the John Doe investigation issued 30 subpoenas and 5 search warrants. She also issued a secrecy order which meant that those being investigated were legally bound from discussing any facet of the investigation publicly.[122] Shortly thereafter, she recused herself from the investigation.[123] Kluka's replacement, Judge Gregory Peterson, quashed several subpoenas in January 2014, saying "there was no probable cause shown that they violated campaign finance laws".[124][125]

The special prosecutor [who?] took the unusual step of filing a supervisory writ, essentially appealing Judge Peterson's decision, with the same appeals court that had denied a motion to stop the investigation.[126] On July 16, 2015, the Wisconsin Supreme Court closed the investigation into whether Governor Walker's campaign had illegally coordinated with outside groups by a 4–2 vote. Justice Michael J. Gableman in writing for the majority stated, "To be clear, this conclusion ends the John Doe investigation because the special prosecutor's legal theory is unsupported in either reason or law. Consequently, the investigation is closed."[127]

The director of Wisconsin Club for Growth (the Wisconsin arm of the national Club for Growth), Eric O'Keefe, defied the gag order, and filed a lawsuit alleging the probe was partisan and violated First Amendment rights to free expression. In a May 6, 2014 order, Judge Rudolph T. Randa found the investigation had no legal basis.[128]

One day later, a three-judge panel (Wood, Bauer and Easterbrook) of the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in Chicago stayed Judge Randa's preliminary injunction, ruling he had overstepped his authority as prosecutors had already appealed an earlier decision in the case. Randa could issue his injunction only if he certified their appeal as frivolous. The appeals court also ruled that Judge Randa could not order prosecutors to destroy evidence collected in the five-county probe.[129][130][131][132] Judge Randa quickly certified the appeal as frivolous and the appeals court upheld the preliminary injunction ruling that he did have the authority to issue the injunction.[133]

At the request of the Wisconsin Club for Growth, the court unsealed documents from the investigation on June 19, 2014.[134] These documents reveal the prosecutors' theory that Governor Walker was at the center of a plan to illegally coordinate fundraising efforts with a number of outside conservative groups to help him in the 2012 recall election, bypassing state election laws. A theory that had been ruled as having no legal basis by two judges.[135]

According to a statement by prosecutors "At the time the investigation was halted, Governor Walker was not a target of the investigation. At no time has he been served with a subpoena", and that they have "no conclusions as to whether there is sufficient evidence to charge anyone with a crime".[136] To date, no one has been charged in the investigation.[134][137] The probe has been effectively shut down with Judge Peterson's quashing of subpoenas until the Wisconsin Supreme Court rules on whether the investigation was legal.[138]

On August 21, 2014, a number of email messages were disclosed from a previous court filing by a special prosecutor. According to Politico, the emails purports to show that Walker made an early decision for money to be funneled though a group he trusted, and shows that he had a direct hand in "orchestrating the fundraising logistics of the opposition to the recalls".[139] According to CBS News, the disclosures show that prosecutors claimed that Walker "personally solicited donations for [the] conservative group Wisconsin Club for Growth to get around campaign finance limits and disclosure requirements as he fended off the recall attempt in 2012."[140]

One of the emails released read, "As the Governor discussed … he wants all the issue advocacy efforts run through one group to ensure correct messaging. We had some past problems with multiple groups doing work on 'behalf' of Gov. Walker and it caused some issues … The Governor is encouraging all to invest in the Wisconsin Club for Growth."[141] The Washington Post reported that the documents released show Walker solicited donors such as Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone, hedge fund manager Paul Singer, and real estate businessman Donald Trump to give large contributions to a tax-exempt group that backed him during the recall efforts.[141]

Wisconsin Club for Growth reportedly only ran issues ads, none of which had to do with the recall attempt.[142] According to a The Wall Street Journal editorial (August 24, 2014), it is "legal and common" for politicians to raise money for political action committees, party committees, and 501(c)(4)'s. There are no allegations that the Wisconsin Club for Growth gave the money to Walker, or even advertised on his behalf.[143]

In September 2014, lawyers asked a federal appeals court to uphold an injunction that blocks a Wisconsin prosecutor from reviving an investigation that targeted conservative organizations accused of illegally coordinating with the governor for the purpose of circumventing campaign finance limits, citing selective prosecution and violations of free speech and equal protection under the law.[144] On September 9, 2014, the Seventh Circuit heard oral arguments on the appeal. During arguments, Judge Frank Easterbrook questioned the constitutionality of the secrecy orders, stating it's "screaming with unconstitutionality". Judge Diane Wood focused in on why the suit was filed in federal court. O'Keefe's attorneys pointed to the fact that the Wisconsin Supreme Court had yet to take up the cases filed in state court.[145] On September 24, 2014, the Seventh Circuit reversed Judge Randa's injunction order and dismissed the lawsuit, not based on the merits of the case, but ruling only on federal interference in a state case.[146] O'Keefe filed an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court on January 21, 2015.[147]

Wisconsin's Government Accountability Board, or GAB, performed the functions of both a state elections and ethics board during this time period and was part of the investigation due to being "presented with facts that suggested there was a violation of the law as it had been applied for years".[148] Although credited as a "model" for other states because "members are former judges chosen in a way to ensure they will not favor either major party" and "no other state has a chief election administration authority with the same degree of insulation from partisan politics"[149] the GAB's being part of this investigation still drew the ire of some Wisconsin Republicans. In July 2015 Governor Walker called for the dismantling of the GAB.[150] The state legislature, controlled by Republicans during the 2015–16 session, passed a law doing so—which Governor Walker signed—that ended the GAB in 2016 and split its functions between boards appointed by leaders of the major political parties.

In 2016, Salon.com declared that a majority of the Wisconsin Supreme Court justices who halted the investigation had been endorsed by the same conservative organizations that were being investigated. "Four of that court's seven justices were elected with $10 million in support (more than the jurists spent on their own campaigns) from Wisconsin Club for Growth and Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, two of the 'independent' groups that Walker was accused of illegally coordinating with..."[151] This led to some of the District Attorneys involved in the John Doe investigation appealing unsuccessfully to the U.S. Supreme Court.[152]

The Guardian reported in September 2016 that there was strong evidence of illegal coordination, based on more than 1500 pages of leaked emails.[153][154]

On October 3, 2016, the United States Supreme Court decided not to take the case despite urging by The New Yorker in order "to repair the rule of law in Wisconsin".[155] Political and legal scholar Howard Schweber opined that this may have been due to the US Supreme Court trying to avoid "tie outcomes".[156]

See also

[edit]

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[edit]
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  148. ^ "Exit Interview with Kevin Kennedy, Executive Director of the Government Accountability Board", wpr.org, June 23, 2016
  149. ^ "America's Top Model: The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board", UC Irvine Law Review, 2013.
  150. ^ "Walker calls for dismantling of state elections board", wkow, July 20, 2015
  151. ^ "It hurts to be right...", salon.com, September 16, 2016.
  152. ^ "Wisconsin Supreme Court won't restart John Doe probe", Wisconsin State Journal, April 28, 2016.
  153. ^ Pilkington, Ed (September 14, 2016). "Because Scott Walker Asked: Leaked court documents from 'John Doe investigation' in Wisconsin lay bare pervasive influence of corporate cash on modern US elections". The Guardian.
  154. ^ "An Email Trail Leads to Gov. Walker". New York Times. September 19, 2016.
  155. ^ "Why the Supreme Court Should Take On Political Corruption in Wisconsin", newyorker.com, September 23, 2016.
  156. ^ "US Supreme Court Declines To Hear Wisconsin's John Doe Appeal", wpr.org, October 3, 2016.
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