2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
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| Elections in Michigan |
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Michigan was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading more than half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other less than half still considered it a swing state. Although the State of Michigan voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 51.23% of the vote, but won only 15 of the 83 counties in Michigan. Most of these 15 counties have the highest populations in the state. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Wayne County with 69.39% of the vote.
Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Michigan either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, the election also marked the first time since 1976 that Michigan voted against the winner of the national popular vote. Bush was the first Republican to win the national popular vote without Michigan since the 1968 presidential race. This also marked the first time since 1940 that an incumbent president won reelection without carrying Michigan.
As of 2020, this is the most recent election to date in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation.
Caucuses
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Cook Political Report | Lean D |
| Research 2000 | Lean D |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Post | Tossup |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
| Washington Times | Lean D |
| The New York Times | Lean D |
| CNN | Likely D |
| Newsweek | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Tossup |
| Rasmussen Reports | Tossup |
Polling
[edit]Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3]
Fundraising
[edit]Bush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5]
Advertising and visits
[edit]In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7]
Analysis
[edit]Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.[8] Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which has a more white-collar populace and had voted Republican in every election from 1940 through 1992 save 1964, and had voted to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip the more blue-collar Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from 1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin.
Results
[edit]| 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 2,479,183 | 51.2% | 17 | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 2,313,746 | 47.8% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 24,035 | 0.5% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 10,552 | 0.2% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 5,325 | 0.1% | 0 | |
| US Taxpayers | Michael Peroutka | 4,980 | 0.1% | 0 | |
| Natural Law | Walt Brown | 1,431 | 0.0% | 0 | |
| Totals | 4,839,252 | 100.00% | 17 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) | 64.2% | ||||
By county
[edit]| County | John Kerry Democratic | George W. Bush Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alcona | 2,871 | 43.96% | 3,592 | 55.00% | 68 | 1.04% | -721 | -11.04% | 6,531 |
| Alger | 2,395 | 50.26% | 2,318 | 48.65% | 52 | 1.09% | 77 | 1.61% | 4,765 |
| Allegan | 19,355 | 35.90% | 34,022 | 63.11% | 530 | 0.98% | -14,667 | -27.21% | 53,907 |
| Alpena | 7,407 | 48.70% | 7,665 | 50.39% | 139 | 0.91% | -258 | -1.69% | 15,211 |
| Antrim | 5,072 | 37.24% | 8,379 | 61.52% | 168 | 1.23% | -3,307 | -24.28% | 13,619 |
| Arenac | 4,076 | 49.61% | 4,071 | 49.55% | 69 | 0.84% | 5 | 0.06% | 8,216 |
| Baraga | 1,660 | 45.06% | 1,977 | 53.66% | 47 | 1.28% | -317 | -8.60% | 3,684 |
| Barry | 11,312 | 37.37% | 18,638 | 61.57% | 322 | 1.06% | -7,326 | -24.20% | 30,272 |
| Bay | 31,049 | 54.42% | 25,448 | 44.60% | 562 | 0.98% | 5,601 | 9.82% | 57,059 |
| Benzie | 4,383 | 44.83% | 5,284 | 54.04% | 111 | 1.14% | -901 | -9.21% | 9,778 |
| Berrien | 32,846 | 43.99% | 41,076 | 55.01% | 749 | 1.00% | -8,230 | -11.02% | 74,671 |
| Branch | 7,004 | 38.98% | 10,784 | 60.02% | 179 | 1.00% | -3,780 | -21.04% | 17,967 |
| Calhoun | 29,891 | 47.70% | 32,093 | 51.21% | 683 | 1.09% | -2,202 | -3.51% | 62,667 |
| Cass | 9,537 | 42.02% | 12,964 | 57.12% | 196 | 0.86% | -3,427 | -15.10% | 22,697 |
| Charlevoix | 5,729 | 40.52% | 8,214 | 58.09% | 196 | 1.39% | -2,485 | -17.57% | 14,139 |
| Cheboygan | 5,941 | 42.78% | 7,798 | 56.15% | 148 | 1.07% | -1,857 | -13.37% | 13,887 |
| Chippewa | 7,203 | 43.69% | 9,122 | 55.33% | 163 | 0.99% | -1,919 | -11.64% | 16,488 |
| Clare | 6,984 | 49.09% | 7,088 | 49.82% | 154 | 1.08% | -104 | -0.73% | 14,226 |
| Clinton | 15,483 | 40.95% | 21,989 | 58.16% | 335 | 0.89% | -6,506 | -17.21% | 37,807 |
| Crawford | 3,126 | 43.21% | 4,017 | 55.52% | 92 | 1.27% | -891 | -12.31% | 7,235 |
| Delta | 9,381 | 48.76% | 9,680 | 50.32% | 177 | 0.92% | -299 | -1.56% | 19,238 |
| Dickinson | 5,650 | 41.70% | 7,734 | 57.08% | 165 | 1.22% | -2,084 | -15.38% | 13,549 |
| Eaton | 25,411 | 45.58% | 29,781 | 53.41% | 563 | 1.01% | -4,370 | -7.83% | 55,755 |
| Emmet | 6,846 | 39.41% | 10,332 | 59.48% | 194 | 1.12% | -3,486 | -20.07% | 17,372 |
| Genesee | 128,334 | 60.03% | 83,870 | 39.23% | 1,571 | 0.73% | 44,464 | 20.80% | 213,775 |
| Gladwin | 6,343 | 47.95% | 6,770 | 51.18% | 114 | 0.86% | -427 | -3.23% | 13,227 |
| Gogebic | 4,421 | 52.31% | 3,935 | 46.56% | 96 | 1.14% | 486 | 5.75% | 8,452 |
| Grand Traverse | 18,256 | 39.52% | 27,446 | 59.42% | 489 | 1.06% | -9,190 | -19.90% | 46,191 |
| Gratiot | 7,377 | 42.45% | 9,834 | 56.59% | 168 | 0.97% | -2,457 | -14.14% | 17,379 |
| Hillsdale | 7,123 | 35.23% | 12,804 | 63.34% | 289 | 1.43% | -5,681 | -28.11% | 20,216 |
| Houghton | 6,731 | 42.46% | 8,889 | 56.08% | 231 | 1.46% | -2,158 | -13.62% | 15,851 |
| Huron | 7,629 | 43.68% | 9,671 | 55.37% | 166 | 0.95% | -2,042 | -11.69% | 17,466 |
| Ingham | 76,877 | 57.78% | 54,734 | 41.14% | 1,442 | 1.08% | 22,143 | 16.64% | 133,053 |
| Ionia | 10,647 | 38.55% | 16,621 | 60.18% | 350 | 1.27% | -5,974 | -21.63% | 27,618 |
| Iosco | 6,557 | 46.82% | 7,301 | 52.13% | 148 | 1.06% | -744 | -5.31% | 14,006 |
| Iron | 3,215 | 49.38% | 3,224 | 49.52% | 72 | 1.11% | -9 | -0.14% | 6,511 |
| Isabella | 12,334 | 50.57% | 11,754 | 48.19% | 302 | 1.24% | 580 | 2.38% | 24,390 |
| Jackson | 31,025 | 43.21% | 40,029 | 55.75% | 741 | 1.03% | -9,004 | -12.54% | 71,795 |
| Kalamazoo | 61,462 | 51.31% | 57,147 | 47.71% | 1,174 | 0.98% | 4,315 | 3.60% | 119,783 |
| Kalkaska | 3,189 | 38.05% | 5,084 | 60.67% | 107 | 1.28% | -1,895 | -22.62% | 8,380 |
| Kent | 116,909 | 40.19% | 171,201 | 58.85% | 2,781 | 0.96% | -54,292 | -18.66% | 290,891 |
| Keweenaw | 630 | 43.78% | 781 | 54.27% | 28 | 1.95% | -151 | -10.49% | 1,439 |
| Lake | 2,675 | 50.99% | 2,503 | 47.71% | 68 | 1.30% | 172 | 3.28% | 5,246 |
| Lapeer | 18,086 | 40.97% | 25,556 | 57.89% | 505 | 1.14% | -7,470 | -16.92% | 44,147 |
| Leelanau | 6,048 | 43.46% | 7,733 | 55.57% | 136 | 0.98% | -1,685 | -12.11% | 13,917 |
| Lenawee | 20,787 | 44.22% | 25,675 | 54.61% | 550 | 1.17% | -4,888 | -10.39% | 47,012 |
| Livingston | 33,991 | 36.26% | 58,860 | 62.79% | 891 | 0.95% | -24,869 | -26.53% | 93,742 |
| Luce | 1,045 | 36.94% | 1,749 | 61.82% | 35 | 1.24% | -704 | -24.88% | 2,829 |
| Mackinac | 2,819 | 42.72% | 3,706 | 56.16% | 74 | 1.12% | -887 | -13.44% | 6,599 |
| Macomb | 196,160 | 48.75% | 202,166 | 50.24% | 4,084 | 1.01% | -6,006 | -1.49% | 402,410 |
| Manistee | 6,272 | 49.23% | 6,295 | 49.41% | 173 | 1.36% | -23 | -0.18% | 12,740 |
| Marquette | 17,412 | 53.60% | 14,690 | 45.22% | 386 | 1.19% | 2,722 | 8.38% | 32,488 |
| Mason | 6,333 | 43.34% | 8,124 | 55.60% | 154 | 1.05% | -1,791 | -12.26% | 14,611 |
| Mecosta | 7,730 | 43.97% | 9,710 | 55.23% | 141 | 0.80% | -1,980 | -11.26% | 17,581 |
| Menominee | 5,326 | 46.64% | 5,942 | 52.04% | 151 | 1.32% | -616 | -5.40% | 11,419 |
| Midland | 18,355 | 42.41% | 24,369 | 56.31% | 551 | 1.27% | -6,014 | -13.90% | 43,275 |
| Missaukee | 2,319 | 31.25% | 5,055 | 68.12% | 47 | 0.63% | -2,736 | -36.87% | 7,421 |
| Monroe | 36,089 | 48.68% | 37,470 | 50.54% | 573 | 0.77% | -1,381 | -1.86% | 74,132 |
| Montcalm | 11,471 | 42.91% | 14,968 | 55.99% | 295 | 1.10% | -3,497 | -13.08% | 26,734 |
| Montmorency | 2,196 | 39.48% | 3,300 | 59.32% | 67 | 1.20% | -1,104 | -19.84% | 5,563 |
| Muskegon | 44,282 | 55.14% | 35,302 | 43.96% | 729 | 0.91% | 8,980 | 11.18% | 80,313 |
| Newaygo | 9,057 | 39.60% | 13,608 | 59.49% | 208 | 0.91% | -4,551 | -19.89% | 22,873 |
| Oakland | 319,387 | 49.75% | 316,633 | 49.32% | 5,957 | 0.93% | 2,754 | 0.43% | 641,977 |
| Oceana | 5,441 | 44.25% | 6,677 | 54.30% | 179 | 1.46% | -1,236 | -10.05% | 12,297 |
| Ogemaw | 5,215 | 48.30% | 5,454 | 50.52% | 127 | 1.18% | -239 | -2.22% | 10,796 |
| Ontonagon | 1,863 | 44.44% | 2,262 | 53.96% | 67 | 1.60% | -399 | -9.52% | 4,192 |
| Osceola | 4,467 | 39.93% | 6,599 | 58.98% | 122 | 1.09% | -2,132 | -19.05% | 11,188 |
| Oscoda | 1,792 | 40.64% | 2,570 | 58.29% | 47 | 1.07% | -778 | -17.65% | 4,409 |
| Otsego | 4,674 | 37.98% | 7,470 | 60.70% | 163 | 1.32% | -2,796 | -22.72% | 12,307 |
| Ottawa | 35,552 | 27.64% | 92,048 | 71.55% | 1,043 | 0.81% | -56,496 | -43.91% | 128,643 |
| Presque Isle | 3,432 | 45.66% | 3,982 | 52.98% | 102 | 1.36% | -550 | -7.32% | 7,516 |
| Roscommon | 6,810 | 47.43% | 7,364 | 51.28% | 185 | 1.29% | -554 | -3.85% | 14,359 |
| Saginaw | 54,887 | 53.37% | 47,165 | 45.86% | 800 | 0.78% | 7,722 | 7.51% | 102,852 |
| St. Clair | 36,174 | 45.36% | 42,740 | 53.60% | 829 | 1.04% | -6,566 | -8.24% | 79,743 |
| St. Joseph | 9,648 | 38.23% | 15,340 | 60.78% | 251 | 0.99% | -5,692 | -22.55% | 25,239 |
| Sanilac | 7,883 | 37.97% | 12,632 | 60.84% | 248 | 1.19% | -4,749 | -22.87% | 20,763 |
| Schoolcraft | 2,137 | 48.12% | 2,267 | 51.05% | 37 | 0.83% | -130 | -2.93% | 4,441 |
| Shiawassee | 16,881 | 46.06% | 19,407 | 52.95% | 363 | 0.99% | -2,526 | -6.89% | 36,651 |
| Tuscola | 12,631 | 44.57% | 15,389 | 54.31% | 318 | 1.12% | -2,758 | -9.74% | 28,338 |
| Van Buren | 16,151 | 47.26% | 17,634 | 51.60% | 389 | 1.14% | -1,483 | -4.34% | 34,174 |
| Washtenaw | 109,953 | 63.46% | 61,455 | 35.47% | 1,856 | 1.07% | 48,498 | 27.99% | 173,264 |
| Wayne | 600,047 | 69.39% | 257,750 | 29.81% | 6,931 | 0.80% | 342,297 | 39.58% | 864,728 |
| Wexford | 6,034 | 39.80% | 8,966 | 59.14% | 160 | 1.06% | -2,932 | -19.34% | 15,160 |
| Totals | 2,479,183 | 51.23% | 2,313,746 | 47.81% | 46,323 | 0.96% | 165,437 | 3.42% | 4,839,252 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Alpena (largest municipality: Alpena)
- Calhoun (largest municipality: Battle Creek)
- Clare (largest municipality: Clare)
- Iosco (largest municipality: East Tawas)
- Iron (largest municipality: Iron River)
- Macomb (largest municipality: Warren)
- Manistee (largest municipality: Manistee)
- Monroe (largest municipality: Monroe)
- Ogemaw (largest municipality: Skidway Lake)
- Roscommon (largest municipality: Houghton Lake)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53% | 46% | Bart Stupak |
| 2nd | 60% | 39% | Peter Hoekstra |
| 3rd | 59% | 40% | Vern Ehlers |
| 4th | 55% | 44% | Dave Camp |
| 5th | 41% | 59% | Dale Kildee |
| 6th | 53% | 46% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 54% | 45% | Nick Smith |
| Joe Schwarz | |||
| 8th | 54% | 45% | Mike Rogers |
| 9th | 51% | 49% | Joe Knollenberg |
| 10th | 57% | 43% | Candice Miller |
| 11th | 53% | 47% | Thaddeus McCotter |
| 12th | 39% | 61% | Sander Levin |
| 13th | 19% | 81% | Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick |
| 14th | 17% | 83% | John Conyers Jr. |
| 15th | 38% | 62% | John Dingell |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:
- Carol Vining Moore
- Margaret Robinson
- Ida I. DeHaas
- Marcela L. Ort
- Vickie Sue Price
- Paul Todd
- Leonard Smigielski
- Bruce McAttee
- Stanley W. Harris
- Yvonne Williams
- Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
- Charley Jackson
- Joan Robinson Cheeks
- Roger Short
- Harless Scott
- Richard Shoemaker
- Michael Pitt
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics". Archived from the original on December 6, 2018. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
- ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on November 28, 2008.
- ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Archived from the original on September 5, 2017. Retrieved September 8, 2009.
- ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Archived from the original on September 5, 2017. Retrieved September 8, 2009.
- ^ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- ^ "America votes 2004: SHOWDOWN STATES: MICHIGAN". CNN. Archived from the original on June 12, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- ^ Leip, Dave (September 17, 2020). "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on October 26, 2020. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Archived from the original on October 16, 2015. Retrieved July 16, 2009.
