2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout67.6%[1]Decrease 1.0pp
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,990,274 2,680,434
Percentage 51.97% 46.59%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

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The 2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. The primary election to select the Democratic and Republican candidates had been held on April 24, 2012.[2] Pennsylvania voters chose 20 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Pennsylvania's electoral vote number was a reduction from the 2008 delegation, which had 21 electors. This change was due to reapportionment following the 2010 United States Census.[3] Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis.[4]

Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama received 51.97% of the vote, beating Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 46.59%.[5] Also on the ballot were physician Jill Stein of the Green Party and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, who received 0.37% and 0.87%, respectively.[5] Other candidates could run as write-in candidates, which received a total 0.2% of the vote. The state had been considered likely, but not certain, to go to Obama.[6] While the state had voted for a Democrat since 1992, it remained competitive, especially after Bush's loss of only 2.5% in 2004. Its competitiveness was attributable to the stark contrast between the state's diverse, urban voters in areas such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; and rural, blue-collar voters in the rest of the state. However, massive margins in the urban regions of the state and victories in the Philadelphia suburbs, Lehigh Valley, Scranton, and Erie delivered a considerable victory for the president. Regardless, Romney improved on John McCain's 10.32% loss in the state in 2008, and flipped five counties that voted for Obama four years prior.[7]

Five counties that voted for Obama in 2008 voted for Romney in 2012. This included Cambria County, which made Obama the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying the county since Woodrow Wilson in 1916. Chester County, a Philadelphia suburb, also voted for Romney, though it would flip back into the Democratic column in 2016[8] and remain there in 2020.[9] Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Elk County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, and the first to do so without carrying Carbon County since John F. Kennedy in 1960. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that Chester County voted for the Republican candidate and the last time that Luzerne County voted for the Democratic candidate, that Pennsylvania voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole, and that Pennsylvania voted Democratic by a smaller margin than Wisconsin.[10]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed on the Democratic primary ballot.[2] He received 616,102 votes.[2] There were 19,082 write-in votes.[11][12] In the floor vote taken at the Democratic National Convention, 242 Pennsylvania delegates voted for Obama,[12] while the other 8 of the state's 250 allocated votes were not announced.[12]

Republican primary

[edit]

Four candidates were on the Republican primary ballot: Mitt Romney, former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum, U.S. Representative from Texas Ron Paul, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.[2] His home state was set to be the make-or-break primary for Santorum.[13] He had just lost 3 primaries to Romney, and Romney appeared poised to become the presumptive nominee by achieving a prohibitive lead.[13]

As momentum in the Republican race built for Romney, Santorum suspended his campaign for four days to meet with 'movement conservatives' to strategize.[14] Rather than returning to campaigning the next Monday, Rick and Karen Santorum canceled campaign events scheduled right after Easter weekend to be in the hospital with their youngest daughter.[15]

In deference to the sick child, Romney ceased airing attack ads, replacing them with positive introductory ones.

On April 10, Santorum formally suspended his campaign. On May 7, he endorsed Romney.[16] Santorum and Gingrich both released their delegates to Romney in August, shortly before the Republican National Convention.[17]

Candidate Votes[2] Percentage Projected delegates[18] Actual delegate vote[19]
Mitt Romney 468,374 57.8% 31 67
Rick Santorum 149,056 18.4% 4 0
Ron Paul 106,148 13.1% 5 5
Newt Gingrich 84,537 10.4% 3 0
Write-in votes[11] 2,819 0.3%
Unprojected delegates 29
Total: 810,934 100% 72 72

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]

In statewide opinion polling, incumbent Barack Obama consistently led challenger Mitt Romney by a margin of between 2 and 12 percentage points.[20] Analysts rated Pennsylvania as a "likely Democratic" or "Democratic-leaning" state in the presidential race.[6] On the morning of the election, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight estimated that there was a 99% likelihood that Obama would win Pennsylvania's electoral votes.[21] At the time, Pennsylvania's electoral votes had gone to the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since Bill Clinton won it in 1992.[4] The average of the last three polls had Obama leading Romney 51% to 46%, which was very close to the actual result.[22]

During the summer, there was significant spending on political advertisements in Pennsylvania, by both the Obama campaign and pro-Romney groups such as Crossroads GPS and Americans for Prosperity.[23] However, because Obama maintained a consistent lead in polling, Pennsylvania came to be considered a "safe state" for Obama, and campaign advertising subsided substantially in August.[23] This changed in October, when pro-Romney groups Restore Our Future and Americans for Job Security spent $3 million on advertising in Pennsylvania.[23] Later that month, the Obama campaign and the Romney campaign both launched their own advertising campaigns in Pennsylvania.[23] On November 1, the Republican National Committee announced that it would spend $3 million on television ads in Pennsylvania in the final days of the campaign.[24] In total, pro-Romney spending in Pennsylvania was estimated to amount to as much as $12 million, much more than Obama campaign spending.[24] The Obama campaign characterized the pro-Romney spending surge as "an act of sheer desperation", while the Romney campaign argued that they had a realistic chance of winning the state.[24] In the end, Obama carried the state by a modest margin, albeit narrower than his 2008 landslide over Senator John McCain.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[25] Lean D November 6, 2012
CNN[26] Lean D November 6, 2012
New York Times[27] Tossup November 6, 2012
Washington Post[28] Lean D November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[29] Tossup November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Lean D November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[31] Solid D November 6, 2012

Results

[edit]
2012 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) 2,990,274 51.97
Republican Mitt Romney 2,680,434 46.59
Libertarian Gary Johnson 49,991 0.87
Green Jill Stein 21,341 0.37
Other Other 11,630 0.20
Total votes 5,753,670 100.0

By county

[edit]
County[32] Barack Obama
Democratic 		Mitt Romney
Republican 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Jill Stein
Green 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 15,091 35.40% 26,767 62.80% 437 1.03% 162 0.38% 168 0.39% -11,676 -27.40% 42,625
Allegheny 352,687 56.54% 262,039 42.01% 5,196 0.83% 2,159 0.35% 1,746 0.28% 90,648 14.53% 623,827
Armstrong 9,045 30.43% 20,142 67.77% 297 1.00% 118 0.40% 119 0.40% -11,097 -37.34% 29,721
Beaver 37,055 45.86% 42,344 52.41% 794 0.98% 281 0.35% 319 0.39% -5,289 -6.55% 80,793
Bedford 4,788 22.01% 16,702 76.79% 143 0.66% 64 0.29% 53 0.24% -11,914 -54.78% 21,750
Berks 83,011 48.64% 84,702 49.63% 1,832 1.07% 775 0.45% 356 0.21% -1,691 -0.99% 170,676
Blair 16,276 32.32% 33,319 66.16% 464 0.92% 182 0.36% 124 0.25% -17,043 -33.84% 50,365
Bradford 8,624 36.64% 14,410 61.21% 243 1.03% 149 0.63% 114 0.48% -5,786 -24.57% 23,540
Bucks 160,521 49.97% 156,579 48.74% 2,863 0.89% 1,053 0.33% 250 0.08% 3,942 1.23% 321,266
Butler 28,550 31.83% 59,761 66.62% 819 0.91% 315 0.35% 254 0.28% -31,211 -34.79% 89,699
Cambria 24,249 40.06% 35,163 58.10% 712 1.18% 402 0.66% 0 0.00% -10,914 -18.04% 60,526
Cameron 724 34.07% 1,359 63.95% 19 0.89% 9 0.42% 14 0.66% -635 -29.88% 2,125
Carbon 11,580 45.07% 13,504 52.56% 356 1.39% 141 0.55% 113 0.44% -1,924 -7.49% 25,694
Centre 34,176 48.90% 34,001 48.65% 1,049 1.50% 400 0.57% 260 0.37% 175 0.25% 69,886
Chester 124,311 49.22% 124,840 49.43% 2,082 0.82% 740 0.29% 603 0.24% -529 -0.21% 252,576
Clarion 5,056 31.08% 10,828 66.55% 208 1.28% 94 0.58% 84 0.52% -5,772 -35.47% 16,270
Clearfield 11,121 34.62% 20,347 63.34% 339 1.06% 160 0.50% 155 0.48% -9,226 -28.72% 32,122
Clinton 5,734 43.08% 7,303 54.86% 171 1.28% 57 0.43% 46 0.35% -1,569 -11.78% 13,311
Columbia 10,937 42.48% 14,236 55.30% 324 1.26% 126 0.49% 121 0.47% -3,299 -12.82% 25,744
Crawford 13,883 39.02% 20,901 58.75% 436 1.23% 168 0.47% 187 0.52% -7,018 -19.73% 35,575
Cumberland 44,367 39.90% 64,809 58.29% 1,191 1.07% 447 0.40% 377 0.34% -20,442 -18.39% 111,191
Dauphin 64,965 52.26% 57,450 46.22% 1,128 0.91% 465 0.37% 293 0.24% 7,515 6.04% 124,301
Delaware 171,792 60.16% 110,853 38.82% 2,002 0.70% 917 0.32% 0 0.00% 60,939 21.34% 285,564
Elk 5,463 41.14% 7,579 57.08% 117 0.88% 79 0.59% 41 0.31% -2,116 -15.94% 13,279
Erie 68,036 57.12% 49,025 41.16% 1,087 0.91% 471 0.40% 495 0.42% 19,011 15.96% 119,114
Fayette 21,971 45.16% 26,018 53.48% 365 0.75% 151 0.31% 144 0.30% -4,047 -8.32% 48,649
Forest 896 38.55% 1,383 59.51% 23 0.99% 10 0.43% 12 0.52% -487 -20.96% 2,324
Franklin 18,995 30.00% 43,260 68.32% 571 0.90% 252 0.40% 242 0.38% -24,265 -38.32% 63,320
Fulton 1,310 21.06% 4,814 77.38% 50 0.80% 21 0.34% 26 0.42% -3,504 -56.32% 6,221
Greene 5,852 40.23% 8,428 57.94% 116 0.80% 68 0.47% 82 0.56% -2,576 -17.71% 14,546
Huntingdon 5,409 30.57% 11,979 67.71% 135 0.76% 116 0.66% 53 0.30% -6,570 -37.14% 17,692
Indiana 14,473 39.71% 21,257 58.33% 385 1.06% 206 0.57% 123 0.34% -6,784 -18.62% 36,444
Jefferson 4,787 26.33% 13,048 71.78% 173 0.95% 89 0.49% 81 0.44% -8,261 -45.45% 18,178
Juniata 2,547 26.55% 6,862 71.52% 83 0.87% 43 0.45% 60 0.63% -4,315 -44.97% 9,595
Lackawanna 61,838 62.87% 35,085 35.67% 743 0.76% 349 0.35% 336 0.34% 26,753 27.20% 98,351
Lancaster 88,481 39.62% 130,669 58.50% 2,527 1.13% 759 0.34% 915 0.41% -42,188 -18.88% 223,351
Lawrence 17,513 44.69% 21,047 53.71% 334 0.85% 142 0.36% 153 0.39% -3,534 -9.02% 39,189
Lebanon 19,900 35.05% 35,872 63.18% 589 1.04% 219 0.39% 197 0.35% -15,972 -28.13% 56,777
Lehigh 78,283 53.17% 66,874 45.42% 1,331 0.90% 514 0.35% 222 0.15% 11,409 7.75% 147,224
Luzerne 64,307 51.51% 58,325 46.72% 1,261 1.01% 546 0.44% 406 0.33% 5,982 4.79% 124,845
Lycoming 15,203 32.58% 30,658 65.69% 409 0.88% 223 0.48% 176 0.38% -15,455 -33.11% 46,669
McKean 5,297 34.95% 9,545 62.99% 178 1.17% 88 0.58% 46 0.30% -4,248 -28.04% 15,154
Mercer 24,232 47.48% 25,925 50.79% 487 0.95% 219 0.43% 176 0.34% -1,693 -3.31% 51,039
Mifflin 4,273 26.03% 11,939 72.73% 107 0.65% 52 0.32% 45 0.27% -7,666 -46.70% 16,416
Monroe 35,221 55.89% 26,867 42.63% 596 0.95% 233 0.37% 106 0.17% 8,354 13.26% 63,023
Montgomery 233,356 56.52% 174,381 42.24% 3,253 0.79% 1,210 0.29% 669 0.16% 58,975 14.28% 412,869
Montour 3,053 38.85% 4,652 59.19% 96 1.22% 30 0.38% 28 0.36% -1,599 -20.34% 7,859
Northampton 67,606 51.59% 61,446 46.89% 1,188 0.91% 495 0.38% 309 0.24% 6,160 4.70% 131,044
Northumberland 13,072 39.19% 19,518 58.51% 422 1.27% 200 0.60% 144 0.43% -6,446 -19.32% 33,356
Perry 5,685 29.59% 13,120 68.28% 238 1.24% 85 0.44% 87 0.45% -7,435 -38.69% 19,215
Philadelphia 588,806 85.24% 96,467 13.97% 2,892 0.42% 2,162 0.31% 449 0.06% 492,339 71.27% 690,776
Pike 10,210 43.86% 12,786 54.93% 194 0.83% 89 0.38% 0 0.00% -2,576 -11.07% 23,279
Potter 1,897 26.06% 5,231 71.86% 78 1.07% 36 0.49% 37 0.51% -3,334 -45.80% 7,279
Schuylkill 24,546 42.29% 32,278 55.61% 617 1.06% 286 0.49% 321 0.55% -7,732 -13.32% 58,048
Snyder 4,687 31.11% 10,073 66.85% 180 1.19% 62 0.41% 66 0.44% -5,386 -35.74% 15,068
Somerset 9,436 27.69% 23,984 70.38% 334 0.98% 188 0.55% 136 0.40% -14,548 -42.69% 34,078
Sullivan 1,034 35.06% 1,868 63.34% 30 1.02% 17 0.58% 0 0.00% -834 -28.28% 2,949
Susquehanna 6,935 38.28% 10,800 59.62% 202 1.12% 107 0.59% 72 0.40% -3,865 -21.34% 18,116
Tioga 5,357 31.34% 11,342 66.35% 195 1.14% 110 0.64% 90 0.53% -5,985 -35.01% 17,094
Union 6,109 37.39% 9,896 60.57% 184 1.13% 79 0.48% 69 0.42% -3,787 -23.18% 16,337
Venango 7,945 35.70% 13,815 62.07% 299 1.34% 108 0.49% 90 0.40% -5,870 -26.37% 22,257
Warren 6,995 40.44% 10,010 57.86% 205 1.19% 89 0.51% 0 0.00% -3,015 -17.42% 17,299
Washington 40,345 42.48% 53,230 56.04% 854 0.90% 321 0.34% 228 0.24% -12,885 -13.56% 94,978
Wayne 8,396 38.74% 12,896 59.50% 195 0.90% 120 0.55% 67 0.31% -4,500 -20.76% 21,674
Westmoreland 63,722 37.58% 103,932 61.29% 1,426 0.84% 492 0.29% 0 0.00% -40,210 -23.71% 169,572
Wyoming 5,061 42.45% 6,587 55.26% 152 1.28% 72 0.60% 49 0.42% -1,526 -12.81% 11,921
York 73,191 38.52% 113,304 59.63% 1,985 1.04% 749 0.39% 776 0.41% -40,113 -21.11% 190,005
Totals 2,990,274 51.95% 2,680,434 46.57% 49,991 0.87% 21,341 0.37% 13,580 0.24% 309,840 5.38% 5,755,620
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state overall, Romney won 13 of the 18 congressional districts.

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 16.89% 82.26% Bob Brady
2nd 8.95% 90.41% Chaka Fattah
3rd 55.60% 43.05% Mike Kelly
4th 57.07% 41.51% Jason Altmire
Scott Perry
5th 56.95% 41.35% Glenn Thompson
6th 50.57% 48.12% Jim Gerlach
7th 50.36% 48.53% Pat Meehan
8th 49.42% 49.35% Mike Fitzpatrick
9th 62.82% 35.87% Bill Shuster
10th 60.11% 38.46% Tom Marino
11th 53.90% 44.57% Lou Barletta
12th 57.81% 40.94% Mark Critz
Keith Rothfus
13th 32.91% 66.17% Allyson Schwartz
14th 30.64% 67.99% Mike Doyle
15th 50.78% 47.87% Charlie Dent
16th 52.35% 46.25% Joe Pitts
17th 43.26% 55.38% Tim Holden
Matt Cartwright
18th 57.95% 40.99% Tim Murphy

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter Registration Statistics". Pennsylvania Department of State. Archived from the original on November 5, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2014.
  2. ^ a b c d e "2012 General Primary". Pennsylvania Department of State. 2012. Archived from the original on April 28, 2012. Retrieved October 18, 2012.
  3. ^ O'Neill, Brian (October 16, 2011). "Don't let Pa. flunk out of the Electoral College". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. p. A-2.
  4. ^ a b McNulty, Timothy (September 8, 2012). "Romney campaign not expected to invest much in Pa". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. p. A-1.
  5. ^ a b c "2012 General Primary". Pennsylvania Department of State. 2012. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013. Retrieved November 15, 2012.
  6. ^ a b Electoral-vote.com labeled Pennsylvania "likely Democratic". Tanenbaum, Andrew S. "Electoral-vote.com". Retrieved October 17, 2012.
    The Washington Post labeled Pennsylvania "lean Democratic". "2012 Election Map: The race for the presidency". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
    CNN labeled Pennsylvania "leaning Obama". Dengo, Sophia; Perry, Bryan; Hayes, John; John, Joel; Slaton, A.D. "CNN Electoral Map". CNN Politics. CNN. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
    The Cook Political Report labeled Pennsylvania "lean Democratic". "Presidential: Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
  7. ^ Woodall, Candy. "Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania: Here's how he reclaimed his home state and the 'blue wall'". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ "Pennsylvania Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 13, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  9. ^ "Pennsylvania Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  10. ^ Brownstein, Ronald (September 16, 2024). "Why these three states are the most consistent tipping point in American politics". CNN. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  11. ^ a b "2012 General Primary Write-in Totals" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. 2012. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved October 18, 2012.
  12. ^ a b c "2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Pennsylvania Democrat". The Green Papers. 2012. Retrieved October 18, 2012.
  13. ^ a b Fitzgerald, Thomas; Worden, Amy (April 6, 2012). "Santorum meets with conservatives as Romney, in Pa., looks to the fall". The Philadelphia Inquirer. p. A1.
  14. ^ "Santorum Taking Four-Day Break from Campaign Trail". Fox Television Stations, Inc. April 4, 2012.
  15. ^ "Santorum Cancels Monday Events to Be With Ill Child". The Wall Street Journal. April 7, 2012.
  16. ^ Walshe, Shushannah (May 7, 2012). "Rick Santorum Formally Endorses Mitt Romney". The Note. ABC News. Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  17. ^ Camia, Catalina (August 24, 2012). "Santorum releases GOP convention delegates". USA Today. Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  18. ^ "Primaries & Caucuses: Results: Pennsylvania". CNN Politics. CNN. July 30, 2012. Retrieved October 20, 2012.
  19. ^ When Pennsylvania delegation chair Tom Corbett announced the Pennsylvania delegates' votes on the convention floor, he said that sixty-seven delegates had voted for Romney and five had voted for Paul Ryan. However, since Ryan was not a candidate (rather, he was Romney's running mate), it is generally assumed that Corbett misspoke—that the five votes were actually for Ron Paul.
  20. ^ "Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 17, 2012.
  21. ^ Silver, Nate. "FiveThirtyEight". The New York Times. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  22. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Polls - PA". US Election Atlas.
  23. ^ a b c d Levy, Marc (October 30, 2012). "Romney, Obama campaigns resume Pa. ad campaigns". Philly.com. Associated Press. Archived from the original on November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 2, 2012.
  24. ^ a b c Levy, Marc (November 1, 2012). "Romney, RNC splashing down in Pa. in 11th-hour bid". Deseret News. Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 30, 2014. Retrieved November 2, 2012.
  25. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  26. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  27. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  28. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  29. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  30. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  31. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  32. ^ "Pennsylvania Elections – County Breakdown Results". electionreturns.pa.gov. November 6, 2012. Retrieved December 28, 2019.
[edit]
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