2024 United States Senate election in Washington

2024 United States Senate election in Washington
	County results
Incumbent U.S. senator; Maria Cantwell; Democratic	; ;

The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell is seeking a fifth term. She is being challenged by Republican physician Raul Garcia. Republicans have not won a senate race in Washington since 1994. Garcia is the first Hispanic nominee from either party for this position.

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Eliminated in primary

Paul Giesick, blue collar worker^[2]

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in 2020^[3]

Eliminated in primary

Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate^[2]
Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022^[2]
Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016^[2]
Mel Ram, private investigator^[2]

Declined

John Guenther, retired state employee and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)^[4]

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate^[2]
Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate^[2]
Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate^[2]
David Tilton (Independent), data analyst^[2]

Endorsements

Raul Garcia (R)

U.S. representatives

Dave Reichert (WA-08) (2005–2019)^[22]

Statewide officials

Daniel J. Evans, former governor of Washington (1965–1977)^[23]
Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington (2005–2013)^[23]
Ralph Munro, former secretary of state of Washington (1981–2001)^[23]
Sam Reed, former secretary of state of Washington (2001–2013)^[23]

State legislators

Dino Rossi, former state senator (1997–2003, 2012, 2016–2017)^[23]

Local officials

Bruce Dammeier, Pierce County Executive^[23]

Organizations

Mainstream Republicans of Washington^[24]

Political parties

Washington State Republican Party^[25]
Spokane County Republican Party^[26]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Maria Cantwell (D)	$11,651,974	$5,128,836	$7,093,030
Raul Garcia (R)	$558,646	$394,077	$164,568
Isaac Holyk (R)	$6,846	$7,278	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[27]

Results

Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Jefferson counties.^[28]

Blanket primary results^[29]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Maria Cantwell (incumbent)	1,114,327	57.18%
	Republican	Raul Garcia	431,182	22.13%
	Republican	Scott Nazarino	111,386	5.72%
	Republican	Isaac Holyk	110,701	5.68%
	Republican	Mel Ram	86,956	4.46%
	Independent	Chuck Jackson	21,055	1.08%
	Independent	David Tilton	17,561	0.90%
	Democratic	Paul Giesick	17,433	0.89%
	Republican	Goodspaceguy	16,826	0.86%
	Independent	Thor Amundson	10,587	0.54%
	Socialist Workers	Henry Dennison	7,840	0.40%
	Write-in		2,862	0.15%
Total votes			1,948,716	100.0%

General election

Debate

2024 United States Senate election in Washington debate
No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Republican
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn
					Maria Cantwell	Raul Garcia
1	Oct. 8, 2024	Gonzaga University KSPS-TV The Black Lens The Spokesman-Review Washington State Debate Coalition	Orion Donovan Smith	TVW	P	P

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[30]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections^[31]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[32]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[33]	Safe D	June 8, 2024
Elections Daily^[34]	Safe D	May 4, 2023
CNalysis^[35]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics^[36]	Solid D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket^[37]	Safe D	October 23, 2024
538^[38]	Solid D	October 23, 2024

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Raul Garcia (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	October 16–17, 2024	571 (LV)	± 4.1%	53%	38%	–	9%
SurveyUSA^[B]	October 9–14, 2024	703 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	32%	–	13%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research	September 3–6, 2024	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	55%	33%	4%^[b]	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	July 24–25, 2024	581 (LV)	± 4.0%	55%	32%	6%^[c]	7%
SurveyUSA^[B]	July 10–13, 2024	564 (LV)	± 5.1%	58%	37%	–	5%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	May 15–16, 2024	615 (LV)	± 4.0%	53%	38%	–	9%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research	May 13–16, 2024	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	30%	1%^[d]	30%
Echelon Insights (R)^[C]	March 18–21, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.7%	44%	36%	–	19%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	February 13–14, 2024	789 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	37%	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	November 14–15, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	51%	38%	–	11%
Elway Research^[D]	October 30 – November 3, 2023	403 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	23%	9%^[e]	25%

Hypothetical polling

Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	June 7–8, 2023	773 (LV)	± 3.5%	52%	37%	11%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[A]	March 7–8, 2023	874 (LV)	± 3.3%	50%	35%	14%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Washington
Party		Candidate
	Democratic	Maria Cantwell (incumbent)
	Republican	Raul Garcia
	Write-in
Total votes

Notes

^ ^a ^b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
^ "Another candidate" with 6%
^ "Someone else" with 1%
^ "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
^ Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com

References

^ Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023. eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
^ Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
^ Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024. [Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
^ Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
^ "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
^ "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
^ https://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1
^ "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
^ https://spokanegop.com/
^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
^ "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
^ "August 6, 2024 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State.
^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[key-39] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[42] "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%

[43] "Another candidate" with 6%

[44] "Someone else" with 1%

[47] "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

[NPI-40] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute

[ischool-41] Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School

[45] Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

[cross-46] Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com

[1] Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023. eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.

[WA2024-2] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.

[3] Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.

[guenther-4] Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024. [Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House

[2-5] "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.

[emily-6] Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.

[femmajorityendorse-7] "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.

[HSLF-8] "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.

[jdjoshendorse-9] "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.

[JACPA-10] "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.

[11] "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.

[12] "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.

[13] Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.

[14] "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.

[PPAF-15] "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.

[pop-16] "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.

[NEAV-17] "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.

[WLC-18] Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.

[19] "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[20] Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[21] staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[22] O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.

[rgend-23] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.

[24] ttps://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1

[25] "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.

[26] ttps://spokanegop.com/

[FEC-27] "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.

[28] "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.

[29] "August 6, 2024 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State.

[30] "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.

[Inside_Elections-31] "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-32] "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

[33] "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.

[34] "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.

[35] "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

[36] "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.

[37] "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

[38] "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.

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2024 United States Senate election in Washington

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Fundraising

Results

General election

Debate

Predictions

Polling

Results

Notes

References

External links

€4.95