Opinion polling on Welsh independence
Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but it has been carried out almost every month since January 2021. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?".[1][2]
Public opinion
[edit]Summary
[edit]A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Yes/No Independence polls
[edit]| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation & client | Sample size | Should Wales be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
| 5–7 June 2024 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 960 | 33% | 57% | 10% | 24% | |
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 900 | 29% | 59% | 12% | 30% | |
| 23–24 March 2024 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 878 | 30% | 58% | 11% | 28% | |
| 18 February 2024 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 874 | 27% | 61% | 12% | 34% | |
| 24–26 January 2024 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 30% | 59% | 11% | 29% | |
| 10-11 December 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,086 | 34% | 58% | 9% | 24% | |
| 4-7 December 2023 | YouGov/Barn Cymru | 1,004 | 22% | 56% | 14% | 34% | |
| 12-13 November 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 33% | 56% | 12% | 23% | |
| 14-15 October 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 959 | 31% | 59% | 9% | 28% | |
| 1–6 September 2023 | YouGov | 22% | 56% | 13% | 34% | ||
| 13–14 August 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,068 | 33% | 53% | 14% | 20% | |
| 14–16 July 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,050 | 32% | 58% | 10% | 26% | |
| 17–18 June 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 30% | 57% | 13% | 27% | |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov/Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 20% | 54% | 15% | 34% | |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 1,058 | 32% | 58% | 11% | 26% | |
| 15–17 April 2023 | Redfield and Wilton Strategies | 1,251 | 29% | 60% | 11% | 31% | |
| 17–23 Feb 2023 | YouGov / WalesOnline | 1,083 | 18% | 55% | 16% | 37% | |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 22% | 55% | 14% | 33% | |
| 21–25 November 2022 | YouGov / YesCymru | 1,033 | 23% | 54% | 13% | 31% | |
| 20–22 September 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 24% | 52% | 14% | 28% | Age 16+ |
| 16–19 August 2022 | YouGov / The Sunday Times | 1,025 | 30% | 48% | 13% | 18% | Non-standard question: If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK |
| 16–19 August 2022 | YouGov / The Sunday Times | 1,025 | 25% | 53% | 12% | 28% | |
| 12–16 June 2022 | YouGov / ITV Wales | 1,020 | 25% | 50% | 25% | 25% | |
| 25 Feb – 1 March 2022 | YouGov/ Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 21% | 53% | 26% | 32% | Age 16+ |
| 5 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes | 1,002 | 30% | 55% | 15% | 25% | Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online |
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov / Welsh Barometer | 1,071 | 21% | 55% | 14% | 34% | |
| 29 April – 4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes | 1,002 | 27% | 58% | 14% | 31% | Online |
| 23–28 April 2021 | Savanta ComRes | 1,002 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | 46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support.[3] |
| 18–21 April 2021 | YouGov | 1,142 | 22% | 54% | 24% | 32% | Age 16+ |
| 9–19 April 2021 | Opinium / Sky News | 2,005 | 28% | 52% | 19% | 24% | |
| 16–19 March 2021 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,174 | 22% | 55% | 23% | 33% | Age 16+ |
| 18–22 February 2021 | Savanta ComRes / ITV News | 1,003 | 35% | 55% | 10% | 20% | 39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time.[4][5] Age 16+. |
| 19–22 February 2021 | WalesOnline / YouGov | 1,059 | 25% | 50% | 14% | 25% | Age 16+ |
| 18–21 January 2021 | The Sunday Times / YouGov | 1,059 | 23% | 52% | 25% | 29% | Age 16+ |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,018 | 22% | 53% | 25% | 31% | Age 16+ |
| 26–29 October 2020 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,013 | 23% | 53% | 25% | 30% | Age 16+ |
| 24–27 August 2020 | YesCymru / YouGov | 1,044 | 25% | 52% | 23% | 27% | |
| 29 July – 7 August 2020 | YesCymru / YouGov | 1,044 | 26% | 55% | 19% | 29% | Age 16+ |
| 29 May – 1 June 2020 | ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni | 1,021 | 25% | 54% | 21% | 29% | |
| 20–26 January 2020 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,037 | 21% | 57% | 22% | 36% | Age 16+ |
| 6–9 December 2019 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,020 | 17% | 60% | 23% | 43% | |
| 22–25 November 2019 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,116 | 20% | 57% | 22% | 37% | |
| 31 October – 4 November 2019 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,032 | 22% | 57% | 21% | 35% | |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov | 1,032 | 21% | 57% | 23% | 36% | |
| 6–10 September 2019 | Plaid Cymru / YouGov | 1,039 | 24% | 52% | 23% | 28% | |
| 6–10 September 2019 | Plaid Cymru / YouGov | 1,039 | 33% | 48% | 20% | 15% | Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union |
| 7–14 December 2018 | Sky News Data: Wales | 1,014 | 17% | 67% | 16% | 50% | |
| 30 May – 6 June 2018 | YouGov | 2,016 | 19% | 65% | 16% | 46% | |
| July 2016 | ITV Wales / YouGov | 1,010 | 15% | 65% | 20% | 50% | |
| July 2016 | ITV Wales / YouGov | 1,010 | 28% | 53% | 20% | 25% | Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union |
| July 2016 | ITV Wales / YouGov | 1,010 | 19% | 61% | 21% | 42% | Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK |
| 8–11 September 2014 | ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University | >1,000 | 17% | 70% | 13% | 53% | The week before the Scottish independence referendum |
| April 2014 | YouGov | 1,000 | 12% | 74% | 14% | 62% | |
| March 2013 | ITV Wales / YouGov | Unknown | 10% | 62% | 28% | 52% | Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK |
| 5–8 January 2007 | BBC / Opinion Research Business | 527 | 19% | 69% | 13% | 50% | Would you like the Union to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end? If it were to end this would mean that Scotland (in Wales say “Wales”) became an independent country? |
"0–10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation & client | Sample size | Total favourable | In favour | Indifferent | Against | Total unfavourable | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |||||
| 10–15 May 2019 | YesCymru / YouGov | 1,133 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 17% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 28% | 47% |
| 9–12 May 2017 | YesCymru / YouGov | 1,000 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 18% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 31% | 53% |
By age (February 2023)
[edit]| Age group[6] | No | Yes | Do not know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 41% | 20% | 16% | 21% |
| 25–49 | 44% | 18% | 23% | 26% |
| 50–64 | 59% | 22% | 12% | 37% |
| 65+ | 72% | 12% | 11% | 60% |
Devolution extent polls
[edit]| Date(s) Conducted | Polling organisation | Support independence (%) | Support more powers for the Senedd (%) | Support status quo (%) | Support fewer powers for the Senedd (%) | Support abolition of the Senedd (%) | Indifferent/Did not reply/Other (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-25 June 2023[7] | Beaufort Research / WalesOnline | 16 | 23 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 13 |
| 12-17 May 2023[8] | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 13 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 20 | 16 |
| 3-7 February 2023[9] | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 15 | 20 | 21 | 7 | 20 | 16 |
| 25 November - 1 December 2022[10] | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 14 | 21 | 23 | 7 | 20 | 14 |
| 20-22 September 2022[10] | YouGov | 17 | 19 | 21 | 7 | 19 | 15 |
| 28 January – 21 February 2021[11] | BBC / ICM Unlimited | 14 | 35 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 6 |
| 29 May – 1 June 2020[12] | ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov | 16 | 20 | 24 | 5 | 22 | 14 |
| 4–22 February 2020[13] | BBC / ICM | 11 | 43 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 3 |
| 7–23 February 2019[14] | BBC / ICM | 7 | 46 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 4 |
| December 2018[15] | SkyData | 8 | 40 | 23 | 4 | 18 | 7 |
| February 2017[16] | BBC / ICM | 6 | 44 | 29 | 3 | 13 | 4 |
| February 2016[17] | BBC / ICM | 6 | 43 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 4 |
| February 2015[18] | BBC / ICM | 6 | 40 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| September 2014[19] | BBC / ICM | 3 | 49 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 6 |
| February 2014[20] | BBC / ICM | 5 | 37 | 28 | 3 | 23 | 5 |
| 2013[21] | BBC / ICM | 9 | 36 | 28 | 2 | 20 | 4 |
| 2012[21] | BBC / ICM | 7 | 36 | 29 | 2 | 22 | 4 |
| 2011[21] | BBC / ICM | 11 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 4 |
| 2010[21] | BBC / ICM | 11 | 40 | 13 | 18 | 13 | 4 |
Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales
| Date(s) conducted | Polling Organisation & client | Sample size | Independence (inc. sub-samples) | No devolved government (inc. sub-samples) | Indifferent / no reply (%) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (%) | Conservative (%) | Labour (%) | Lib Dem (%) | Plaid Cymru (%) | Total (%) | Conservative (%) | Labour (%) | Lib Dem (%) | Plaid Cymru (%) | ||||
| 29 May – 1 June 2020 | ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni | 1,021 | 33% | 12% | 45% | 39% | 87% | 45% | 79% | 35% | 53% | 4% | 21% |
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Welsh Independence Poll - Support Steadily Dropping?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
- ^ "Welsh independence polls 2023". Statista. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
- ^ "Savanta ComRes Wales Voting Intention –29 April 2021" (PDF).
- ^ Axenderrie, Gareth (4 March 2021). "Polls chart rise of support for Welsh independence". The National Wales. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
- ^ da Silva, Chantal (2021-03-04). "Highest ever support for Welsh independence, new poll shows". The Independent. Retrieved 2021-03-19.
- ^ Hayward, Will (2023-03-01). "Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
- ^ Hayward, Will (2023-07-10). "Poll shows 40% of Welsh people want either independence or more powers for Wales". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-07-11.
- ^ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
- ^ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
- ^ a b "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
- ^ "Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales". BBC News. 28 February 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
- ^ Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "Attitudes to Devolution and Welsh Independence". Cardiff University. Retrieved 5 June 2020.
- ^ "St Davids Day Poll 2020". 1 March 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
- ^ "Attitudes to Brexit and economy polled". BBC News. 1 March 2019.
- ^ Awan-Scully, Roger (20 December 2018). "Does Wales Want to Abolish the Assembly?". Cardiff University.
- ^ "EU migrants should have skills, public tells BBC Wales poll". BBC News. 2017-03-01.
- ^ "St David's Day Poll" (PDF). blogs.cardiff.ac.uk. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
- ^ "ICM Poll for the BBC" (PDF). www.icmunlimited.com. 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
- ^ "'Record low' back Welsh independence - BBC/ICM poll". Wales Online. 2014-09-15. Retrieved 2014-09-19.
- ^ "BBC Cymru Wales poll: Few in Wales back Scottish independence". BBC News. 28 February 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
- ^ a b c d "Historical Polls". icmunlimited. Retrieved 2022-06-24.
