Next Madrilenian regional election
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All 135 seats in the Assembly of Madrid 68 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Madrilenian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 14th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 135 seats in the Assembly will be up for election.
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Assembly of Madrid is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Madrid, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Madrilenian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
All members of the Assembly of Madrid are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. The Assembly is entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000.[1][2]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Assembly of Madrid expires four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Assembly being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous ordinary election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 23 May 2027.[1][2][3]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]
Parliamentary composition
[edit]The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the present time.[4]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group of the Assembly of Madrid | PP | 70 | 70 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 27 | 27 | ||
| More Madrid Parliamentary Group | MM | 24 | 26 | ||
| VQ | 2 | ||||
| Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid | Vox | 11 | 11 | ||
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][3]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
| .jpg) | Isabel Díaz Ayuso | Conservatism Christian democracy | 47.32% | 70 |  | ||
| MM–VQ | List
|  | Manuela Bergerot | Progressivism Participatory democracy Green politics | 18.36% | 27 |  | [5] | |
| PSOE | List | .jpg) | Juan Lobato | Social democracy | 18.18% | 27 | | ||
| Vox | List
| | José Antonio Fúster | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 7.35% | 11 | | ||
Opinion polls
[edit]The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
[edit]
Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |  |  |  |   |  |  | SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SyM Consulting[p 1] | 18–21 Oct 2024 | 1,107 | 65.8 | 44.1 65 | 22.2 32/33 | 17.0 25 | 8.7 12/13 | 5.0 0 | 0.6 0 | – | – | 21.9 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 52.5 | 40.7 (62) | [a] | 28.2 (42) | 10.7 (16) | 4.5 (0) | 1.1 (0) | 5.8 (8) | 5.1 (7) | 12.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] | 26 Mar–29 Apr 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 44.0 63 | 19.4 27 | 22.9 33 | 8.6 12 | 2.2 0 | 1.3 0 | – | – | 21.1 |
| Data10/OKDiario[p 3] | 27–29 Mar 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 47.3 69 | 21.2 30 | 17.6 25 | 8.2 11 | 2.9 0 | 0.8 0 | – | – | 26.1 |
| GAD3/PP[p 4] | 21–27 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | ? | 51.0 74 | 18.7 27 | 17.6 25 | 6.6 9 | 2.7 0 | – | – | – | 32.3 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5] | 27 Feb–25 Mar 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 43.2 63 | 19.1 27 | 23.2 33 | 8.9 12 | 1.8 0 | 1.6 0 | – | – | 20.0 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 69.7 | 40.5 (56) | [a] | 27.8 (39) | 14.0 (19) | [a] | – | 15.5 (21) | – | 12.7 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6] | 28 May–7 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | ? | 46.8 70 | 18.3 27 | 19.1 28 | 7.2 10 | 4.5 0 | 1.6 0 | – | – | 27.7 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 65.5 | 47.3 70 | 18.4 27 | 18.2 27 | 7.3 11 | 4.8 0 | 1.6 0 | – | – | 28.9 |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "Estimación Octubre 2024 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2027". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 22 October 2024.
- ^ "EP Com. Madrid (2My): Ayuso ganaría pero necesitaría a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 May 2024.
- ^ "Sánchez pierde 2 diputados en Madrid tras el acoso fiscal a la pareja de Ayuso, que mantiene la mayoría". OKDiario (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
- ^ "Una encuesta interna del PP de Ayuso catapulta a la presidenta a los 74 escaños". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 2 April 2024.
- ^ "EP C. Madrid (31mar): Ayuso baja y no tendría absoluta, la izquierda mejora". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
- ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Madrid (9JL): Lobato adelanta a Mónica". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 July 2023.
- Other
- ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 3/1983, de 25 de febrero, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad de Madrid (Organic Law 3) (in Spanish). 25 February 1983. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
- ^ a b c Ley 11/1986, de 16 de diciembre, Electoral de la Comunidad de Madrid (Law 11) (in Spanish). 16 November 1986. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
- ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios". Assembly of Madrid (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ^ "Manuela Bergerot será la nueva portavoz de Más Madrid en la Asamblea tras la salida de García a Sanidad" (in Spanish). Madrid: Europa Press. 20 November 2023. Retrieved 30 November 2023.
