2023 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election

2023 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered1,597,646
 
Francis Ogbonna Nwifuru.jpg
APGA
PDP
Nominee Francis Nwifuru Bernard Odoh Ifeanyi Odii
Party APC APGA PDP
Running mate Patricia Obila Nkata Chuku Paulinus Igwe Nwagu
Governor before election

Dave Umahi
APC

Elected Governor

Francis Nwifuru
APC

The 2023 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Ebonyi State, concurrent with elections to the Ebonyi State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Dave Umahi is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the All Progressives Grand Alliance nominating former Secretary to the State Government Bernard Odoh on 29 May while both the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party had two separate parallel primaries.[4] For the APC, one primary nominated Speaker of the House of Assembly Francis Nwifuru on 26 May while another was won by former Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission chairman Elias Mbam on the same day;[5][6][7] in the PDP, one primary nominated businessman Ifeanyi Odii on 30 May as a different primary nominated Senator for Ebonyi Central Joseph Ogba on 6 June.[8][9] By July, INEC recognised Nwifuru as the APC nominee while the PDP nomination was awarded to Odii by the Supreme Court in September.[10][11]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Governor of Ebonyi State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

[edit]

Ebonyi State is a small, Igbo-majority southeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, rising debt, and a low COVID-19 vaccination rate.

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized as a continuation of the PDP's control as Umahi won with over 81% of the vote and the party won every seat in the House of Assembly along with all three senate seats. However, the PDP did lose one House of Representatives seat to the APC after a court ruling and although the state was easily won by PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar, it still swung towards Buhari compared to 2015 and had lower turnout. In the interim between 2019 and 2023, the state's political landscape drastically changed as Umahi defecting to the APC in November 2020 set in motion a wave of other defections that gave the APC control of the House of Assembly. While the defections massively improved the APC's southeastern standing, the legal ramifications are still unknown as a high court briefly removed Umahi and all assemblymembers who also defected from office in March 2022 until the decision was overturned on appeal; it has been appealed further.[citation needed]

Ahead of his second term, Umahi stated focuses included agriculture, economic development, and resource development; however, he was criticized for authoritarian-esque actions. Alarms were raised after Umahi's defection when he ordered security forces to lock the state PDP secretariat in 2021 and when the state PDP spokesman was arrested for criticizing Umahi in 2022; he was also accused of using security forces to harass critics and political opponents.[12][13][14][15][16] At other points during his administration, Umahi was given praise for economic diversification and increasing government transparency while receiving further criticism for blaming IPOB attacks on politicians without evidence and ranting against the judiciary.[17][18][19][20]

Primary elections

[edit]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][21] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Ebonyi North Senatorial District to have the next governor as Ebonyi North has not held the governorship since 2007.[22] However, some groups such as the Association of Ebonyi State Indigenes in the Diaspora claimed that as one full rotation of districts would be complete in 2023, further zoning was unnecessary.[23][24][25] On the other hand, some leaders in the Izzi subgroup of the Igbo people claim that not only should the governorship be zoned to Ebonyi North, it should go to the Izzi as former Governor Sam Egwu was from a non-Izzi area of Ebonyi North. Meanwhile, some leaders in the Ezaa subgroup of the Igbo people called for their group to hold the governorship as the Ezaa are one of the largest subgroups in the state.[26]

Eventually, the PDP settled on zoning to the "Abakaliki bloc" (the North and Central Senatorial Districts) while APGA and the APC declined to formally zone their nominations.[27]

All Progressives Congress

[edit]

Ahead of the primary, the state APC constituted a zoning committee that submitted its report in April 2022; along with the zoning committee, Umahi also asked leaders from both the Ezaa and Izzi subethnic groups to put forward candidates.[28][29] While Ezaa APC leaders settled on former Senator Julius Ucha at a meeting in Onueke, the Izzi process was much more contentious as Izzi stakeholders were reportedly divided between backing RMFAC Chairman Elias Mbam or Assembly Speaker Francis Ogbonna Nwifuru.[30][31] After Mbam eventually won out, Nwifuru supporters rushed to endorse him anyway while other Izzi leaders chastised the supportive statement.[31][32][33]

Another cause of intraparty strife were rumours that Umahi was personally supporting Nwifuru. This speculation was confirmed on 23 April 2022 when Umahi endorsed Nwifuru while at a funeral.[34][35][36] Ucha and other candidates derided Umahi's endorsement of Nwifuru as 'undemocratic imposition' that was characteristic of his "high-handed" party leadership style.[37][38] In response, an Umahi aide claimed the endorsement was based on the wide support Nwifuru received from stakeholders and that Umahi's would not prevent internal democracy during the primary.[31]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[39] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[40] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[41][42][43][44]

On the primary date, two separate factional primaries were held with the grouping backed by Umahi and the state party holding an indirect primary at the Pa Ngele Oruta Township Stadium while the faction supported by Mbam held an indirect primary at Mbam's campaign office. After both primaries were peacefully held, the Stadium primary ended in Nwifuru winning by a wide margin while the Mbam factional primary resulted in his victory.[5][6] Nwifuru was recognized as the legitimate nominee in July by INEC.

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Francis Nwifuru (87.82%)
  Rosemary Ofoke Nwogbaga (7.45%)
  Other candidates (4.73%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Francis Nwifuru 743 87.82%
APC Rosemary Ofoke Nwogbaga 63 7.45%
APC Julius Ucha 22 2.60%
APC Elias Mbam 10 1.18%
APC Edward Nkwegu 8 0.95%
Total votes 846 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 8 N/A
Turnout 854 Unknown
Invalid Mbam office primary results

Candidates' vote share

  Elias Mbam (98.15%)
  Other candidates (1.85%)
APC Mbam office primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Elias Mbam 741 98.15%
APC Francis Nwifuru 7 0.93%
APC Julius Ucha 4 0.53%
APC Edward Nkwegu 2 0.26%
APC Rosemary Ofoke Nwogbaga 1 0.13%
Total votes 755 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 22 N/A
Turnout 777 Unknown

All Progressives Grand Alliance

[edit]

In early April 2022, state APGA Chairman Ricky Okorouka announced that the state party would not zone its gubernatorial nomination.[53]

On 25 March 2022, the national APGA announced its primary schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦3 million and the nomination form price at ₦12 million with a 50% discount for women candidates and candidates with disabilities.[54] Forms are to be sold from 29 March to 11 April; after the purchase of forms, gubernatorial candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 22 and 23 April while the screening appeal process is slated for 5 May. Ward congresses are set for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 29 May, in concurrence with all other APGA gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made on 31 May.[55][56]

On the primary date, former Secretary to the State Government Bernard Odoh was the sole candidate and won the nomination unopposed. In his acceptance speech, Odoh derided the APC and PDP along with pledging to lead APGA to victory.[4]

Nominated

[edit]

Running mate—Nkata Chuku[59]

Results

[edit]
APGA primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
APGA Bernard Odoh 513 100.00%
Total votes 513 100.00%

People's Democratic Party

[edit]

In late September 2021, State PDP Chairman Fred Udeogu announced that the state party had zoned its gubernatorial nomination to the "Abakaliki bloc" (the North and Central Senatorial Districts).[60]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[61] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[62][63]

On the primary date, the national PDP abruptly cancelled the gubernatorial primary along with all other Ebonyi PDP primaries due to court ruling over state party leadership.[64][65] Before the national leadership set a new primary date, a party faction led by ousted state chairman Silas Onu held its own election, nominating businessman Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odii by a wide margin.[8] The national party and its recognized state chairman, Tochukwu Okorie, rejected the primary and held their own primary on 6 June; it was won by Senator Joseph Ogba.[9] However, the next day, a Federal High Court annulled the Okorie factional primary and declared the Odii-won primary as legitimate.[66] The court battle continued afterwards until 14 September when the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Odii and declared him the legitimate nominee.[67][11] INEC briefly removed Odii as recognized nominee in December 2022 due to renewed litigation but he was returned to the list of candidates by late January.[68][69]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]
  • Chukwuma Nwandiugo: former Commissioner for Works and Transport[50][49]

Results

[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odii (93.07%)
  Other candidates (6.93%)
PDP Onu factional primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odii 349 93.07%
PDP Chris Usulor 9 2.40%
PDP Sylvester Ogbaga 8 2.13%
PDP Andrew Sunday Opoke 6 1.60%
PDP Emmanuel Ezeh 1 0.27%
PDP Augustine Nwazunku 1 0.27%
PDP Chukwuma Nwazunku 1 0.27%
PDP Other candidates 0 0.00%
Total votes 367 100.00%
Invalid Okorie factional primary results

Candidates' vote share

  Joseph Ogba (52.38%)
  Edwin Anayo (22.78%)
  Sylvester Ogbaga (13.04%)
  Fidelis Nwankwo (9.11%)
  Other candidates (2.69%)
PDP Okorie factional primary results[9][77]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Joseph Ogba 253 52.38%
PDP Edwin Anayo 110 22.78%
PDP Sylvester Ogbaga 63 13.04%
PDP Fidelis Nwankwo 44 9.11%
PDP Chukwuma Nwazunku 6 1.24%
PDP Austin Igwe-Edeze 3 0.62%
PDP Paulinus Igwe Nwagu 2 0.41%
PDP Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odii 1 0.21%
PDP Augustine Nwazunku 1 0.21%
PDP Adaeze Nwuzor 0 0.00%
Total votes 483 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 14 N/A
Turnout 497 Unknown

Minor parties

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Much of the general election campaign was dominated by internal party disputes that often led to extensive legal battles. The nominations of both Nwifuru and Odii were challenged by the winners of their parties' parallel primaries with the PDP case rising to the Supreme Court.[11] For the state PDP, the court cases were only a part of its wider internal crisis.[79] By 2023, attention mainly switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Ebonyi State voted for Peter Obi (LP); Obi won the state with 79.8% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 13.0% and Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 4.2%. Although the result was unsurprising—Ebonyi is in Obi's southeastern stronghold and projections had favored him—the result led to increased attention on the chances of LP gubernatorial nominee Edward Nkwegu as opposed to Nwifuru, Odoh, or Odii. However, the LP nomination itself was embroiled in legal action which culminated in the removal of Nkwegu as nominee. In the wake of the presidential election and the court ruling sacking Nkwegu, analysts focused on various factors including regional strength by candidate, internal party relations, and zoning dynamics.[80][81]

Projections

[edit]
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[a][82] Tossup 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[b][83] 		Odii 2 March 2023

Conduct

[edit]

Electoral timetable

[edit]

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[84] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[85]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[c] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[d] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

[edit]

Results

[edit]
2023 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Chukwuma Awuregu Nwandugo
ADP Kenneth Nwabueze Oziomaeze
APP Apollos Ndubisi Okpara
ADC Bernard Nyaba Nwonomara
APM Chinenye Judith Igwe
APC Francis Nwifuru
APGA Bernard Odoh
LP Edward Nkwegu
New Nigeria Peoples Party Chris Soni Adol-Awam
NRM Anthony N. Usulor
PDP Ifeanyi Odii
SDP Micheal Ikechukwu Nwankwo
YPP Sunday Andrew Opoke
ZLP
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

[edit]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Francis Nwifuru
APC 		Bernard Odoh
APGA 		Ifeanyi Odii
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Ebonyi Central Senatorial District[e] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ebonyi North Senatorial District[f] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ebonyi South Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

[edit]

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Francis Nwifuru
APC 		Bernard Odoh
APGA 		Ifeanyi Odii
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abakaliki/Izzi Federal Constituency[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Afikpo North/Afikpo South Federal Constituency[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ebonyi/Ohaukwu Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ezza North/Ishielu Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ezza South/Ikwo Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ivo/Ohaozara/Onicha Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

[edit]

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Francis Nwifuru
APC 		Bernard Odoh
APGA 		Ifeanyi Odii
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abakaliki TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Afikpo North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Afikpo South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ebonyi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ezza North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ezza South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ikwo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ishielu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ivo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Izzi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ohaozara TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ohaukwu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Onicha TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[86]
  4. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[87]
  5. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ezza North, Ezza South, Ikwo, and Ishielu.
  6. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Abakaliki, Ebonyi, Izzi, and Ohaukwu.
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Afikpo North, Afikpo South, Ivo, Ohaozara, and Onicha.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Abakaliki and Izzi.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Afikpo North and Afikpo South.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ebonyi and Ohaukwu.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ezza North and Ishielu.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ezza South and Ikwo.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ivo, Ohaozara, and Onicha.

References

[edit]
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